Greenland ice melt: Waterworld? Not....

Article from the BBC on 12^th November I heard on BBC Radio international (675 AM in Hong Kong) said that they ice sheet was melting at an accelerating pace and if it all melted, it would raise global sea levels by 7 metres.

I thought this was strange from two angles: first, the common sense angle.  It just didn’t sound right to me.  Second, I had just seen a video of an expert from the National  Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration quoted on a greenie website.  Asked what would happen if all the ice caps in the world – Greenland, the Arctic, Antarctica and all the glaciers –  were to melt, he said that the world oceans would increase by about 6 metres.  So, how could the melting of Greenland alone add seven metres just by itself.

I did a quick back of the envelope calculation.  The area of the world’s oceans is around 361 million square km.  So, to raise the sea levels by one metre would need 361 million cubic kilometres of water.  The area of Greenland is around 2.2 million square km.  Let’s assume it’s all ice (it’s not).  Ice is about 9% less dense that water, so that it takes about 1.09 cu metres of ice to create one cu metre of water.  That would mean that for Greenland’s ice to create 361 million cu km of water, the ice cap would need to be 1,386 km high.  Its average depth, is only around 3 kilometres at the deepest estimates.  So the story of seven metres rise in the is out by a factor of about 462. 

This is not to deny the danger of global warming and melting ice caps.  But it does seem to be of a style of the global warming alarmists: exaggerate the dangers, to gain public attention.  In this case exaggerate by 46,102.05%. (satire alert: spurious accuracy deliberate…).

In fact the exaggeration is greater since not all of Greenland’s area is ice, and some of it is sea ice.  But even assuming it’s all ice and all on land (the only ice which will actually raise sea levels when melted), then the actual increase sea level by the melting of the entire Greenland ice sheet – by my admittedly rough back of envelope calculations – is about 0.0165 metres, 1.65 centimetres, or about 0.65 of an inch.  That’s not seven metres, but less than an inch….

Maybe I’ve gone wrong here somewhere, and if so, let me know: fu.saisee@gmail.com

I also don't quite get their figures on the actual rise in sea levels; they don't seem to gel with some other figures I've seen, but will have to look at that later...

Postscript: I have, of course, made a schoolboy howler of an error, by incorrectly using cubic metres instead of cubic kilometres.  Allowing for that error, the figure of 7 metres rise in the sea level from a full melting of Greenland is about right.  My bad.  (where on earth did that phrase come from??).  Meantime, I've read somewhere that even during the last major warming periods Greenland did not in fact melt, pace those stories of Vikings tending cattle on a green land.

Hail dank animals -- Freud-u Akbar

Still looking for that elusive “motive” as to why Nidal Malik Hasan, a pious Muslim who taught classes on the Koran's message to kill infidels, who talked with a radical cleric, who wanted Sharia to take priority over the US Constitution, who was "Muslim first and American second"... still wondering why he mass murdered at Fort Hood, Texas. Here’s a clue: I find that his name is an anagram of “hail dank animals”. But please don’t jump to conclusion about hails of bullets on those "dank animals", the unbelievers; we’re still looking, looking, looking, for that elusive motive, and that, after all, is just a clue…. Another anagram: “mania kinda shall"? Mania kinda shall lead to deaths? I dunno; but don’t, don’t jump to conclusions.

Well, analysis by anagram makes about as much sense and is about as logical as some of the “reasons” for his mass murder put out seriously by the apologists in the mainstream media (MSM): e.g.: that Hasan attended Virginia Tech College for a while. Remember VTC? That’s where the Korean loony went crazy and randomly killed a bunch of people a while back. Random mass murder is catching, don’t you see, so there’s an “explanation”, a “motive”. Hasan caught the crazies while there.

Other "motives" are catching as well, just like Swine Flue. Somehow, we are told, Hasan “caught” Post Traumatic Stress Disorder. He’d never been deployed to a war zone, but he caught PTSD from returning soldiers. 

 
Another "motive": Hasan the Counsellor was himself not counseled by other counsellors: it’s the fault of the Army, then. Or the US public. Or someone; certainly not Hasan, and absolutely not his religion.
Which can end up with this formulation: 

 

“Muslim leaders and military service members have taken pains to denounce the shooting and distance themselves from Major Hasan. They mgke the point that his violence is no more representative of them than it is of other groups to which he belongs, including army psychiatrists.” ("Hard questions over faith for Muslim U.S. soldiers", International Herald Tribune, 10th Nov)

Right, I get it: Hasan is a psychiatrist who kills people, but doesn’t represent psychiatrists; and he’s a Muslim who kills people but doesn’t represent Muslims. But wait a minute! I’m sure the US Army Psychiatry Association does not have a handbook which requires adherence to Freudian analytics, with death to those that don’t so adhere. And their Manual does not require death in the name of Freud, for all non-believers, all the while shouting “Freud-u Akbar”.

The Muslim leaders will “denounce the shooting”, of course, but they do not do anything that would help stop more random suicide terrorism in future: like starting programs at Islamic schools and mosques specifically refuting and denouncing calls to sectarian and anti-Semitic killing in the source texts of Islam.

Meantime, these same “Muslim leaders” are adept at playing the victim card: even up and unto having the head of US Homeland Security, Janet Napolitano sing from their songbook rather than show concern for the safety of the homeland: 

 
Describing the killings as "a terrible tragedy", Ms Napolitano said a civil rights and civil liberties directorate in her department aimed to "prevent everybody being painted with a broad brush”.

This is a truly shocking statement, even worse when allied with her earlier instant assertion that the killings had "nothing do with Islam" (thereby, incidentally, falling foul of her boss Obama’s instruction not to “jump to conclusions”. Oh well, it’s ok if the conclusion is to exonerate Islam).

As Robert Spencer notes: 

“She [Napolitano] could have said something like this: "Describing the killings as 'a terrible massacre', Ms Napolitano said she aimed to "prevent such jihad attacks from ever happening again on American soil’".

I have shown elsewhere that despite the carnage done in the name of Islam, with over 14,300 Islamic terrorist acts since September 2001 (five a day!), Muslims are not overrepresented in the hate crime stats of the FBI. The greatest proportion of hate crimes are against Jews, who are three times more likely than Muslims to be victims of hate crimes.

One of the news stories about alleged reprisals against Muslims consists entirely of reports of Muslim organisations demanding protection against reprisals that had not happened. The headline runs “anti-Muslim backlash immediate”, but the only bit that was even vaguely a "backlash" was a post titled “Jihad at Fort Hood?”. With a question mark. The answer to which, btw, is now “yes”. But it was not irresponsible for the piece to be run, given what was already known at the time. What was worse, far worse, egregious, was the failure of the MSM, not to fail to highlight the religious motive, but not even to mention it.

Postscript: 

The motive (as opposed to the "motive") is becoming clearer all the time, even as it was clear from the beginning. It’s what we thought all along. Hasan mass-murdered in the name of Islam. His links the radical sectarian anti-semitic, Al-Qaeda-sympathising cleric Anwar Al-Awlaki sealed all the other circumstantial evidence. (and remember one can indict on circumstancial evidence). As soon as the religious motive became clear, the MSM reporting stopped. After all, if he’s not loony, if he didn't catch the crazies from Virginia tech, or catch PTSD, or if he wasn't a person sinned against by racist taunting, or freaked out by a deployment to Afghanistan, then what's to report?

Almost all reports in the MSM downplayed or ignored the religious element of Hasan’s murder spree. Of particular note in the New York Times, this is my Reporters’ Hall of Shame, highlighting particularly tendentious or egregious "reporting":

• Benedict Carey
• Damien Cave
• Lizette Alvarez
• Andrea Elliott
• Erica Goode

PostPostcript: 

Many observers, Muslim and non-Muslim, have said that it’s not permitted for Muslims to kill other Muslims. Put aside the fact that Sunnis will happily kill Shia and vice versa and that both will kill Sufi’s or Ismaeli, the Koran and Hadith do prohibit the killing of Muslims by Muslims. 

But, first, during WWII, the allies fought the Germans, all Christian countries, and never have I heard that there was concern by Christians at killing Christians. The point was that there were some clear “bad guys”, the Nazis, and the fact that their troops and ours believed in Jesus, did not stop the allies from trying to stop "bad guys”. Similarly, Muslims ought to be able to fight, and kill, other Muslims, if they are creating chaos in the land, as did the Nazis. 

Second point: given that the doctrines of Islam do prohibit the killing of Muslims, such that even Muslim soldiers of the US army will be “conflicted” if asked to serve in a Muslim country, or consider themselves Muslim first and Americans second, doesn’t that demand that the US Military should reconsider recruiting any Muslims as soldiers? Especially since they will likely have to serve in a Muslim country? 

Who is the most gullible... ooops, I mean green

Four countries: Brazil, China, the UK and the US.

In what order did they recently answer "yes" to the question: "Would you buy a socially responsible brand, even if it cost more?"

"Everyone knows Islam is a religion of peace"

Here’s another thing I don’t get.  

Why do the MSM tie themselves up in Manhattan-sized pretzels trying to find reasons for Hasan’s murderous mayhem that are other than the most obvious one?  Do they really, truly, believe that his religion had nothing to do with it?  And if so, how could that be?  And if they think that it does have something to do with it, but they won’t say so, why’s that?  Is it squeamishness? Or fear?  Or their bosses telling them they should not contemplate the thought?  And if that’s the case, then why are their bosses saying that?  Is it that they fear the loss of the Islamic advertising dollar?  Or that they are scared?  Or that their bosses, the owners of the media have Islamic investment?  Or that they are scared?  If it’s “political correctness”, why are they all so politically correct, when the blogosphere is not so?  Do they fear being ostracized by their colleagues?  Their friends?  Do they think they’d better not report the religious angle because it could "lead to more hate"?

I just don’t get it.

So they go on “looking for motive”.  They’ve road tested various possibilities, including that he was let down by his superiors for not having been counseled himself, that he was sneered at because of his “middle-eastern appearance”, or that he was upset about his deployment to Afghanistan.  In short, it’s everyone’s fault but his.

The policos, meantime, have jumped to conclusions that Obama warned everyone not to do.  They have jumped to the conclusion that it had nothing to do with religion: Janet Napolitano (“This was an individual who does not, obviously, represent the Muslim faith."”) and Sen Lindsey Graham, “At the end of the day this is not about his religion — the fact that this man was a Muslim,” Senator Graham said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”

In March 07, the “Half-Hour   News  Hour” sent up this failure to face reality.  A nice skit, spot on for today.  In fact, it’s hardly a send-up, given what’s happening now in refusal to face the simple fact that this fellow killed in the name of Islam….  The “terrorism expert” nearly says “don’t jump to conclusions”… (vide: Pres Obama)

Downfall of the Gang of Four, Beijing October 1976

BBC Radio runs a program called "Witness", in which listeners are asked to give an account of an historic event they witnessed.  This week, of course, many about the downfall of the Berlin wall, 30th anniversary being today, or hereabouts.  I sent the Beebs something about our witnessing of a huge demonstration in Beijing in October 1976, which accompanied the downfall of the Gang of Four (remember them?).  I sent the note below, and they've responded by saying they are "very interested" in the story and want to ring me later this week.  Standing by....

My parents and I were witnesses to the huge demonstration along Chang-an Boulevard and Tiananmen Square in Peking in mid October 1976. Demonstrations that welcomed the downfall of the “Gang of Four”.  And the downfall of the "G4" led to the opening up of China and the remarkable transformation of its society and place in the world.

You may recall that Mao Tse-tung (“Mao Zedong” in Pinyin) died on September 9th 1976. Immediately after his death there was a fierce battle for control of China.  The leftists wanted to keep China along the socialist path set by Mao, centrally controlled and “self-reliant” – ie, to keep it the closed society it had been till then.  These leftists were led by a group who came to be known as the Gang of Four: Jiang Qing (Mao’s wife), Zhang Chunqiao, Yao Wenyuan and Wang Hongwen.  Leading those against the leftists was Deng Xiaoping, who had been “purged” in April that year (the second or third of his career “purgings”).

The Gang of Four were arrested on 6th October 1976 and shortly thereafter there were national celebrations to welcome the arrest.  In Peking the major demonstration was in mid October (I can’t remember the exact date and can’t find it online).   That’s what we witnessed and took part in. 

I was new in Peking, sent there in early September 1976 by the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs (Australia’s FCO), for the first of two years’ full-time study of Mandarin at the Peking Languages Institute and Peking University.  My parents were visiting us (my then wife and me).

We were staying at the Peking Hotel, which is still there and still called the “Peking” Hotel, right on Tiananmen Square.  We had rooms overlooking Chang-an Boulevard and the square to our right (immediately south-west of the hotel).

We awoke to hear sounds outside.  Opening the window, we saw crowds as far as the eye could see to east and west and filling the huge square: millions of people, by later estimates.  There were happy people waving flags, letting off firecrackers, crashing cymbals, pounding drums on flatbed trucks and tricycles.

We went outside to get a closer look.  We were warmly welcomed by the crowds, who seemed genuinely happy, even deliriously so.  We were given little paper flags to wave.  They had hand-written Chinese characters on them.  I had only just started my study, so I didn’t know what the flags said, but later we had them translated for us and they were variations on the theme of “down with the Gang of Four”, and “down with the Jiang, Zhang, Yao, Wen clique”, some with crudely drawn pictures of the “gang”, and crosses through them.

A word on “Gang of Four”, the phrase: at the time, the translation into English “Gang of four” was not immediate.  The Chinese phrase is  四人帮, (Si Ren Bang in Pinyin; “Sir wren bung” phonetically), which is literally “four person gang”, or “four person clique”, or similar.  It was some time, some days, if I recall, before the western press settled on “Gang of Four” as the preferred term, and it has, of course, now become part of English lexicon. [check out Google images for "gang of four" to see just how much there is, including a number of bands with the name].

Deng Xiaoping was officially brought back to power some two years later, though he was certainly behind the scenes in all that led up to the arrest of the G4 and the aftermath. It was Deng who set China on a new path, to lead it to its present status as a major world power and major player in the international economic scene.  There are concerns about what China terms its “peaceful rise”, but there can hardly be any argument that we’re better off with a China we have now than the one we may have had under the G4 – witness North Korea as to what happens under that type of leftist extreme isolationism.

It was Deng who settled the course of China onto a “socialism with Chinese characteristics”, ie, a pragmatic China: he coined some memorable phrases: “It doesn’t matter if the cat is black or white as long as it catches mice” (to move China away from rigid socialist ideology), “Seek truth from facts” (ditto), “To get rich is glorious” (Adam Smith would've loved him!).

For the place where I now live, Hong Kong, he came up with the famous formulation of “One country, two systems”, which paved the way for the agreement on Hong Kong with Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s and which has worked rather well for us since the handover in 1997.

There may be some “retrospective determinists”, who might claim that China would have gone this way in any case (ie: “this is the way China is, so this is the way it must have become”). I don’t think so.  If the G4 had prevailed, China could have proceeded along the same path it had to that time, just as North Korea has continued along its own ruinous path.  That would have been to the great cost of many hundreds of millions of people. In China alone, the World Bank has estimated that China’s economic rise has brought over 500 million people out of poverty.  It has, on any fair balance, been a stabilizing force in the recent financial crises: the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the current GFC.

What we have seen in China in the last 30+ years is unprecedented in world history.  It all started with the arrest of the Gang of Four, which was welcomed by the crowds in the streets of Peking we witnessed from our hotel window and then walked down to join, waving our flags to celebrate the downfall of the Gang, thirty three years ago.

P F Hong Kong

PS: my wife I met some 14 years ago in China. Turns out she was there at the demo too. She was a high-school student in Peking.  She remembers the day well.  They were driven to Tiananmen to take part in the demos, and though not given much info about it, knew enough of the basics to know that it was good news for China, the beginning of opening up.  Had we met that day, however, we would not have been able to talk as she knew no English then and I had only just started my Chinese.  My mother (88) is currently visiting us in Hong Kong and also remembers the day well.

Heere Motive, come here Motive, here kitty, kitty…. gooood Motive

Napolitano: Looking for Motive: it ain't religion, got that?

“News” that the military is looking for a motive behind Hasan’s killing of 13 people at Fort Hood.

Actually, they’re not looking for a motive, they’re looking for a “motive”.  That is, something that will fool enough of the people, enough of the time, including fooling themselves, that there’s a motive other than the one starting us in the face: Sudden Jihad Syndrome.  An egregious piece in today’s Herald Tribune  test drives several “motives” and does not just downplay a religious one, it does away with it altogether!

“Investigators are still trying to determine Major Hasan’s motives, exploring his job pressures, harassment as a Muslim and his strong opposition to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.”

Oh, ok then, it does mention religion, but only from the point of view that others were, maybe, perhaps, horrid to him about his religion.  Meantime, Obama says “don’t jump to conclusions”, by which I think he means: "don’t come to the conclusion that’s staring you in the face until we’ve had a chance to tell you what his motives are, and they won’t, they just won’t, have anything to do with religion."

Here’s Homeland Security Secretary, Janet Napolitano, for example:

"This was an individual who does not, obviously*, represent the Muslim faith."

*["obviously"? "obviously"??  Napolitano obviously knows nothing of the "Muslim faith" to say that]

And Senator Lindsey Graham :

“At the end of the day this is not about his religion — the fact that this man was a Muslim,” Senator Graham said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”

Ignored in the search for our little Kitty, “Motive”, is the real motive:

Hasan proselytized about Islam when he should have been giving a medical presentation, he dressed in Islamic garb before he went on his rampage, he gave away his Korans and property before the killings (indicating premeditation), he shouted “Allahu Akbar” as he killed and harmed his colleagues  -- that is, he told the world, as clearly as he could “I do this for my God, I do this for my Religion.  My religion asks this of me.”

Any chance that the teachings of Islam, the commandments to kill the Kufaar, had anything to do with the shootings?  Naaah.  

One of the best comments on the race-religious harassment "motive":

5. David Thomson: 
Nov 7, 2009 - 3:17 pm

The evolving elite consensus contends that Major Hasan is somehow a victim of our racist society. He must have suffered from low self-esteem because of his Muslim minority status. This is pure crap. Hasan is a fully credentialed psychiatrist and military officer. In other words, he represents the top ten percent regarding formal education and financial earnings. What is the likelihood that he has been severely persecuted because of the color of his skin and religious affiliation—in the year 2009? Let’s be blunt: next to zilch! At the most, Hasan may have overheard a couple of low ranked soldiers describe him as a towel head. A mature adult is expected to blow off such minor irritations, especially if they are a mental health professional. We can pretty well take it for granted that nobody dared call Hasan a “filthy Arab” to his face. That rarely, if ever, occurs in our present era. Thus, what does he have to complain about? Hasan is a guy who pretty well has it made. Numerous Americans would have been thrilled to trade places with him. Are Muslim-Americans supposedly so overly sensitive that any perceived slight offense is enough to set them off to commit mass murder? Good heavens, give me a break.

Update:  In the International Herald Tribune article I hold in my hand (The International Herald Tribune is the Global Edition of the New York Times), the quote is as above, top of the page.  In the online version of this article, via the NYT website, the very paragraph I have quoted above is amended to the one below.  So from this they have removed even the racist/Muslim harassment "motive", and the opposition to the wars "motive".  Hmmm, why would they do that?  The effect is to throw the whole "motive" onto one possibility, the "strains of the profession", the poor dear.  Will this little kitty do?   Seems rather a burden, for such a weak little "motive".   

"Major Hasan’s motives are still being investigated. But those who work day in and day out treating the psychological wounds of the country’s warriors say Thursday’s rampage has put a spotlight on the strains of their profession and of the patients they treat."

Rudd's "U-turn"

(c) SCMP

Letter in today's South China Morning Post , from yours truly...

Greg Barns ("Rudd's U-turn on refugees a mixed message to Asia", October 27) laces his piece on refugees with pejoratives: Australia is a "closed Anglo-European society", "inhumane and xenophobic" and, for good measure, "a selfish, xenophobic European outpost in Asia". In Barns' view, taking any account of public opinion is to be dismissed as "pandering" and "populist".

Australia is not a closed Anglo-European society at all, but open, vibrant, multicultural and tolerant. To suggest there is some kind of "mixed message to Asia" is to ignore the large number of Asian migrants from China, Vietnam and Southeast Asia (China is the third-largest source of Australians born overseas).

If Australians are concerned about Afghans, Iraqis and Iranians seeking entry to Australia, their concern is clearly not because they are non-Anglo-European, as Barns suggests. It is because the Australian public has the common sense to note that they come from Muslim societies; and that the lessons in Europe are that such immigrants have not - unlike those from Asia - assimilated or even integrated well into their host societies.

In Britain and Europe, around 30 per cent of all Muslims, in poll after poll, express support for sharia law with its draconian punishments of women, homosexuals, non-Muslims, adulterers and social drinkers. What is there to suggest Muslim attitudes in Australia would be any different? It is not intolerant, selfish or xenophobic to be concerned about that, as most Australians clearly are.

Note: the only bit cut out of my original, was the rather politically correct bit I included, quoting the Australian government:

As the Australian government says [*]: 

“Since 1945, around 6.9 million people have come to Australia as new settlers. Their contribution to Australian society, culture and prosperity has been an important factor in shaping our nation”.

[*] http://www.immi.gov.au/media/fact-sheets/04fifty.htm

"Don't jump to conclusions"

I hear on BBC this morning that Obama has urged people "not to jump to conclusions" about the motivation of Major Nidal Hasan who killed 13 people in a killing spree at the Texan army base yesterday.  That "don't jump to conclusions" seems to be a code, used whenever the killing is done by a Muslim.  I can't imagine the same would be said were the killer Christian, Buddhist or Atheist.  It means: don't assume that his religion had anything to do with it (for Islam is "religion of peace", doncha know).

But what happens when we find that the motivation was indeed to do with his religion? That he couldn't stand to see a Muslim country "attacked" by "Crusaders"?  What conclusion will we then be urged not to jump to?

Update: it seems the Major shouted "Alahu Akbar" before he started shooting.  I wonder: he has made the connection between his religion and the shooting.  The connection between his "God" being "Great" and the fact that the infidels had to be shot.  He made that connection.  What conclusion are we not allowed to come to now?  That Islam had something to do with it? Are we permitted to come to that conclusion, now?

Update 2:  the blogosphere is spinning, of course, with the two opposing views of this: from the pro-Jihadis and fellow travelling apologists for Islam, vs the anti-Jihadis and critics of Islam.  

The pro-Jihadis are saying that this has nothing to do with religion, or, in Obama-speak "don't jump to conclusions", which is a veiled way of saying, don't come to the conclusion that your common sense tells you -- "who do you believe, me or your lying eyes?”.  

The anti-Jihadis are pointing to the fact that Hasan gave away Korans on the day of the massacre, wore Islamic garb and shouted "Allahu Akbar" throughout, to make the link to his religion crystal clear.  The two groups have mirror-image problems.  

The pro-islamists are bumping up against reality and common sense when they say that the killings have "nothing to do with religion", but they do have a gullible audience that "wants to believe", wants to believe that the killings are just random craziness, nothing to do with Islam, wants to believe that Islam indeed is a religion of peace. 

The anti-islamists have all the common sense and facts on their side (the fellow was doing this in the name, explicitly, of Allah, for God's sake!), but they have an audience unwilling to listen, and who thinks that to acknowledge the fact of the connection to Islam would be "Islamphobic", "bigoted", or, sillier, "racist".  There is a massive global cognitive dissonance on the issue of Islam and violence.

Talking dogs

(c) New Yorker

I mentioned  my auntie’s (RIP) conviction that there was some kind of weird rule in the universe: you don’t hear about something for ages, you may not even know about it, then you hear it once and suddenly you hear it all over the place.

Another one today!  Just this morning talking to my son as to whether dogs could speak.  I asked him to discuss the issue with our Weimaraner, to see if dogs really could speak but simply didn’t; whether they spoke, but only in doggie language; or if they didn’t speak at all cause they couldn’t.  In the course of his investigations into the issue, he looked up “speak” in the dictionary and it seems that speaking involves “words”, which would seem to rule out dogs. Then our Weimaraner pointed out that it depends on what you mean by “words”. 

Then this afternoon, as if on my auntie’s cue from heaven, the following quote from Joe (Burnaby, BC), in the “Leopard Behind you”:

“ Dogs can talk. One only has to understand the vocabulary.”

This all in the search for an article on facial expressions and how they can affect your mood (instead of the mood affecting your facial expression).  The idea being that just in the act of smiling you may feel happier.  Though one hesitates to wander round with a face contorted into a rictus, in the attempt to elevate one’s mood.  Found it here  by Olivia Judson, who goes on to say that one’s moods may be different depending on which language you’re speaking.  And certainly speaking Italian does raise the spirit, wot, with all its uninhibited arm waving.  She has a follow up here.

Ms Judson mentions German.  Reminds me of the pom on our little yacht crossing the Atlantic a few years ago.  He said that the war was all a big misunderstanding based on the sound of German.  They hadn’t been declaring war, just asking the Brits over for a beer….

Son contemplates our Weimaraner talking and people being amazed.  Son says he’d say  “well, yeah, he can talk, but his grammar’s shocking…”.  (Recalling the old Larsen cartoon with a dog mowing the lawn, but not in really straight lines; guest comments in amazement “my goodness, you dog can mow the lawn!”  “Yes,” says the dog’s owner, “but look at what a dreadful job he does…”)

China's researchers kick butt

South China Morning Post

Interesting article in today's South China Morning Post. Seems our motherland is kicking butt in the scientific arena. Note the areas that they're publishing most in, all of them industries of the future: "...atomic energy, space science, high-energy physics, biology, computer science and information technology"... where they "... have reached or are close to a recognisable international level of achievement.” 

Chinese researchers poised to dominate
Reuters in Washington, Nov 04, 2009

Chinese researchers have more than doubled their output of scientific papers and are now second only to the United States in terms of volume, according to a report from information company Thomson Reuters.

The research is heavily focused on materials and technology and shows China is poised to dominate several areas of industry, the report finds." China's comparative growth is striking, far outstripping that of the rest of the world," the report states. "And the curve seems to be showing only marginal signs of slowing, still heading to overtake the US itself within the next decade.”

Chinese researchers published 20,000 research papers in 1998. This rose to nearly 112,000 last year, the report found, with China passing Japan, Britain and Germany on annual output. During the same time, US researchers increased output by between 265,000 and 340,000 papers a year, a gain of about 30 per cent. Chinese research is concentrated in the physical sciences and technology, especially materials science, chemistry and physics.

"China's grip on innovative materials is likely to have far-reaching effects. It is difficult to see developments in industrial sectors that draw on these technologies that will not directly or indirectly depend on the knowledge coming out of China's research," the report states.

"If China's research growth remains this rapid and substantial, European and North American institutions will want to be part of it," Jonathan Adams, director of research evaluation at Thomson Reuters. "China no longer depends on links to traditional G8 partners to help its knowledge development. When Europe and the US visit China they can only do so as equal partners."
The report, based on 10,500 journals monitored by Thomson Reuters, notes that China has more than 1,700 standard institutions of higher education.

"Already, more than half of the nation's technologies, including atomic energy, space science, high-energy physics, biology, computer science and information technology, have reached or are close to a recognisable international level of achievement.”

Other high-growth areas for China, the report states, include agricultural sciences, immunology, microbiology, and molecular biology and genetics.

The US is the biggest international collaborator with China, with 39,000 Chinese papers suggesting collaboration with US researchers, or 8.9 per cent of China's total. Japanese collaborations came next with 3 per cent. Regional collaboration expansion is notable, especially with Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Australia.

In the area of quality engineering, mainland researchers published more papers in journals than their American counterparts for the first time in 2007, and the gap would only grow, according to a study by the Institute of Scientific and Technological Information of China late last year.
The mainland made the biggest contribution to the growth of engineering knowledge, by publishing 78,200 papers in academic journals, mostly in English, indexed by Engineering Information, a leading engineering database, in 2007.

It's an ill wind.... China-US relations in renewable wind energy

... and who does it blow good for here?  Interesting article in today's International Herald Tribune, about China's role in the manufacture of wind turbines for a wind farm in Texas.

It's always going to be hard keeping the manufacturing jobs in the US, given that the average manufacturing wage in China is $US 100 per month , about 3% of the US average.  

But is that all bad?  

Remember China's Minister of Commerce, our mate Bo Xilai, pointing out some time back that in a pair of Nikes, retailing in the US for around  $US 300, China's factories making the shoes only got a few dollars.  Most of the money went to the front end (research, development and design) and the back end (marketing, sales and profit), all of which were in the US.  Could the same be so for wind energy?  And what do the Green Inc critics of the detail suggest should be done?  

Protectionism?  

Check out North Korea to see where that leads....

Chinese role in wind farm creates anger

By Tom Zeller Jr Nov 01 2009

News last week of the first major influx of Chinese capital and wind turbine manufacturing expertise into the renewable energy market in the United States—a 600-megawatt wind farm planned for the plains of west Texas—had many readers of the Green Inc. blog in a state of agitation.

‘‘I don’t understand why China is exporting wind energy to the U.S.,’’ wrote Mark from New York City.

Read on…

"The high price of patriotism"

As an ex Foreign Affairs Officer in the Australian Diplomatic Corps, I found the following report of ex FCO officer, Derek Pasquill's travails, fascinating and disturbing.

Derek Pasquill was a Foreign and Commonwealth Office man to his core. He was born to a diplomat father and service wife, weaned in its embassies, trained in its boarding schools and polished by its fine minds until he was ready to represent liberal Britain to a hostile world.

The FCO was the only institution he really knew, and he took its benevolence for granted. His mother was German and his parents did not want to spend their days at drinks parties with cliquey expats who would not treat the overwhelming majority of their compatriots as their social equals, let alone foreigners. They toured his father's postings instead.

When he was on holiday from his English boarding schools, they took him to the Roman ruins at Baalbek in Lebanon and the palaces of Ctesiphon, Iraq. Pasquill had an isolated but privileged childhood and he looks back on it with gratitude. His whole life had been leading him towards a career in the diplomatic service. It was his natural home.

Today, the FCO views him as the most devastating whistleblower in its recent history....

More...(link to mag).  (or, PDF here .) 

ADDED 18/6/24): Link Rot strikes again. Both of these links don’t work. The PDF one was a link to a site that I had myself, where I kept PDF’s, thinking they’d be a better bet than the hyperlink, but it seems that Google has simply retired that without quite telling me. This whole issue of Link Rot does raise questions of how long our writings will last when they’re all up there in the Clouds and the clouds simply move and evanesce with time. 

Argumentum ad consequentiam

Richard Dawkins in The Greatest Show on Earth, describes a “common fallacy called argumentum ad consequentiam – X is true (or false) because of how much I like (or dislike) its consequences” (ibid p 402).  

That would about sum up the fallacy in the folks over at Loonwatch, who argue that death for apostasy in Islam does not exist, despite the canonical and factual evidence for it.  The don’t want it to exist – for then how could Islam be the “Religion of peace and tolerance”? -- so it doesn’t exist. 

They censored my 800-word post (I posted it here instead), so I posted a little post, for they say that’s all they can bear.  This was published and  elicited a response from “Danios”,  but again he censored my response, so again, I’ve posted it below.

Is this important, or is it just an obscure argument on religious theory?  Well, it’s about whether or not there’s penalty for apostasy in Islam, up to and including the death penalty.  So yes, it’s important, if you consider the 1.2 billion Muslims, many of whom may fear death if they leave that baleful ideology.  People can and do get killed for leaving it . Rifqa Bary fled her home in fear of her pious Muslim parents, as she’d left Islam for Christianity.

If you’re new to this issue, then no doubt you’re going to find that the thought any punishment at all for thinking for oneself is shocking.  That one could be put to death for changing one’s religion is beyond shocking; it’s truly barbaric.  Of course, the apologists will say that Christianity had centuries to reform itself, so you have to give Islam a chance (give pious a chance).  But hey, folks, it’s been 1400 years already!  And these days things happen rather faster than they used to in the dark ages – in the non-Islamic world, at least…

Anyway, the exchange is below, only the first two of which were published by “Danios”.  Am I guilty of the argumentum ad consequentiam fallacy?  You judge.  Every time I check myself on it, I just have to raise my head from the keyboard and note that there are still eight countries that have the death penalty for apostasy, Iran as recently as 2008: Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Qatar, Yemen, Iran, Sudan, Afghanistan and Mauritania.  In many other Islamic countries apostasy is punishable or actively discouraged.  

Read on…

Peter Forsythe Says: 
October 29th, 2009 at 10:00 pm

Egypt’s Grand Mufti, Ali Gomaa, confirms that there is punishment for apostasy, as does the Islamic Research Centre of al-Azhar University, supporting him: there is punishment “in this life” for apostasy.
Article in Gulf News  July 07.


Danios Says: 
October 30th, 2009 at 1:25 am

Peter, thank you for keeping your post short and to the point. Unfortunately every single word and letter in your comment is incorrect, despite how knowledgeable you thought of yourself when you posted it.

First: Ali Gomaa is not the head of Al-Azhar. Muhammad Sayyid Tantawi is the Grand Imam of Al-Azhar and holds the highest position of authority there. Please click here to see that clearly. Tantawi’s view on apostasy is that “peaceful apostasy” is not to be punished. It is only to be punished if it is coupled with seditious acts against the state.

Second: as for the Islamic Research Department of Al-Azhar, here is their view on the matter:

“The Islamic Research Department of Al-Azhar University has called the penalty for apostasy as null and void and has said that the ways of repentance are open for the whole life…So an apostate can repent over his mistake anytime during his life and there would be no fixed period for it.” (source: Al-Alamul Islami, Rabita Alam al-Islami, Aug. 23rd, 2002)

Third: You are incorrect about Ali Gomaa. His view is that apostasy is only to be punished if the apostate poses a seditious threat to the state. Initially, his comments against the punishment for apostasy were included in the Washington Post. After that, Gulf News published an article saying that he was misquoted, which you duly included in your comment. Unfortunately, in your haste, you did not come to know that a third article was then published in the Middle East Times in which Ali Gomaa said that it was in fact the Gulf News which misquoted him. In the Middle East Times article, Ali Gomaa says: “Some members of the press and the public understood this statement as a retraction of my position that Islam affords freedom of belief. I have always maintained the legitimacy of this freedom and I continue to do so.” So the top two Imams of Sunni Islam reject the death penalty for apostasy.

Three strikes, Peter. You’re out.

Do you realize now why I didn’t approve your huge misinformed post before? It would have taken me too long to point out all your numerous mistakes.

Tell me: did you enjoy having your ass handed to you?

-Danios.

My response, not published by Danios:

Danios,

Thanks for your response.

First, I did not say that Ali Gomaa was the head of al-Azhar. I said he was Grand Mufti of Egypt, an even more elevated position. 

Second, Ali Gomaa’s comments are hardly unqualified and ringing condemnations of penalty for apostasy, given that he calls it a “grave sin” (heavily punishable under Islamic law), and that apostates should be punished if they “endangered society”.  (Who’s to decide that?).  [1]

The same article notes that:

“In many Muslim societies, there is a long-held view – not necessarily supported by scripture - that the punishment for apostasy is death.”

“Not necessarily” means it is debatable.

Third, Grand Imam of al-Azhar, Sayyid Tantawi’s comments on apostasy [2] are that apostasy should not be punished only if it does not “pose a threat” or “belittle Islam”.  “Belittling” of Islam is a loophole one could drive a truck through.

For example, Hossam Bahgat said: “Even though it is not a criminal offense in Egypt, [apostates] get detained under emergency laws or are put on trial for contempt of religion if they wish to convert.” [1]

Fourth, re the Islamic Research Centre (IRC) of al-Azhar, you quote (with no reference) a representative as saying, in 2002, that the penalty for apostasy is “null and void”.  However, five years later, Mustafa Al Chaka a senior official of the IRC said:  "He [Gomaa] cannot deny punishment in this life for the apostate." (Gulf News, July 24 2007 [3]).  Is Mustafa Al Chaka an “Islamophobe”?

[A]   Your conclusion: “The top two Imams of Sunni Islam reject the death penalty for apostasy.”

[B]  My conclusion: “Two of the top Imams of Sunni Islam make statements that would allow cause for capital punishment for apostasy.”

References:

[1] http://www.wwrn.org/article.php?idd=25764&sec=59&con=57

[2] http://www.sunnah.org/history/Scholars/mashaykh_azhar.htm

[3] http://gulfnews.com/news/region/egypt/top-cleric-denies-freedom-to-choose-religion-comment-1.191048