If we look at China's claim that "Taiwan has always been a part of China" it vanishes on even cursory inspection. But, one learns, such claims don't need to be literally true. Emotionally true will do.
And then I'd always assumed — again without examining that assumption closely — that if China did invade Taiwan it would lead to immediate response by America which would prevail.
Now those assumptions no longer hold much water.
Our dear leader and president-for-life, Xi Jinping, is shackling his legacy on "liberating" this renegade province.
And as for American military superiority, this discussion with a man who truly knows where things stand, set me back. (Jim Fanell, Director of Intelligence for the US Pacific Fleet)
And now, of course, Putin invades Ukraine, with zero blowback from the west.
So now might be the time. For a "shock and awe" attack on Taiwan. Which in other times we might have called a "blitzkrieg".
Even as the logic or moral case for attacking Taiwan is far less than that for Ukraine.
Or maybe not. Have to think about that one a bit more.
Net-net: likelihood of China invading Taiwan has surely increased. Odds? Who knows, aside from Xi. 50-50? (What I call the "coward's odds" for a "pundit" saying this is setting up to be proven correct no matter how it goes).
