Saturday, 12 December 2020

ICNARC report on COVID-19 in cri􀆟cal care: England, Wales and Northern Ireland

I’m bookmarking this report that came out in the UK yesterday. A detailed study of the Intensive Care taken up by Covid-19 vs other diseases in the UK this year, by the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre.

Given the concerns -- might I say “fear mongering”? --  that we’re running out of hospital space -- not just in Britain, but here in Hong Kong, all over Europe, in the US -- it’s interesting to pick out the chart above. The lines across are the last four years, in % and the bars are this year, in more detail. For most months the hospital occupancy for intensive care is at or under the last four years. 

Other stats show the hospitalisation by ethnicity. Most are in line with their proportion in the general population. The outlier is Asia. Don’t know why. Not for lack of care, for they are also the same % in terms of intensive ventilation, which I assume is a marker of the extent of care. So I’m left with wondering, and wouldn’t immediately go to “structural racism”, though some will/already have.

Those with higher BMI are more represented than their proportion in the general population, as we’d expect. But not by as much of a margin as I’d thought. Am I just giving myself an out here? Given that mine is on the wrong side of average?

With News of Hunter Biden's Criminal Probe, Recall the Media Outlets That Peddled the "Russian Disinformation" Lie

Glenn Greenwald was never a Trump supporter. Indeed he’s a lifetime Democrat. But he was outraged at the manipulation and suppression of information about the Bidens by the US media and intelligence communities before the election, and has been banging on about it for a while now. He even quit from the Intercept, an online magazine he himself founded, over the issue. He has another go at it here, because it’s now come out, finally, in the MSM

In sum, we have the extraordinary historic disgrace of media outlets collaborating with the intelligence community in the weeks before a presidential election to manufacture and peddle a propagandistic lie to justify censorship of highly relevant materials about the presidential front-runner and his family’s efforts to profit off his name — namely, that the documents were not authentic but rather “Russian disinformation.”

It is vital to recall which media outlets did this and how they deceived the public yet again.  Read on....

Reasons for this?

Leading up to the 2020 election, much of the U.S. media and Silicon Valley giants decided that ensuring Trump’s defeat was such an overarching goal, a moral imperative, that anything and everything was justified to achieve it — including uniting with the professional liars of the CIA to disseminate blatant falsehoods about the Hunter Biden materials in order to discredit them, lead the public to believe they should be ignored, and justify their own burying and censoring of these materials. 

Friday, 11 December 2020

Tremble and Obey -- 凜遵 Lǐn Zūn

I was looking up “Tremble and Obey”, which I recalled -- but without detail -- as an imperial Chinese edict. I wanted to write something about how China -- at least the Beijing part of it, China's own "Deep State" -- is going about its diplomacy these days. Not so much tact as threat. With the example of how it’s thugging Australia as its shaming example. You, Aussies: “Tremble and Obey!"

When I googled it, most of the links are to the 2019 Documentary by Australian’s Four Corners on the ABC, on the thirtieth anniversary of the Tian’anmen square demonstrations and the crushing of them on June 4, 1989. I’m not going to talk about that, there’s plenty at google. 

I confirmed what I’d vaguely recalled: that “Tremble and Obey” was the sign-off to imperial edicts in China, right up to the end of the Qing dynasty in 1912. Not “Sincerely yours”, or “yours faithfully”, or “Regards”,  or “Cheers, comrades!”. But ... Tremble! and Obey! 

The English term is described as a “calque”, a new word for me: meaning a “borrowing by word-for-word translation”. Eg: English “skyscraper” was calqued into the French “gratte-ciel” (literally “scrapes-sky”). And the English “flea market” is a calque from the French “marché aux puces” a market with fleas. Related learning: “quarantine” is from the Italian for 40 days -- quaranta giorni. That was the length of time that boats entering Venice during the Plague had to wait in harbour before landing. If the word had been “calqued”, it would be “Forty-days” not “quarantine".  

The two characters making up “tremble” and “obey” are 凜遵 , pronounced Lǐn Zūn. Lin means “to shiver with cold or to fear” and Zun means “to observe, to obey, to follow”. 

Here endeth the language lesson. 

I also came across an article from 12 July 2019  by David Vines -- “The paddlers of the tremble and obey theory owe us an apology”. Vines is a local journo who I’d known back in my government days; his article made me think that one ought not opine -- at least with certainty, as Vines does -- about erupting world events. That’s what the Hong Kong demos and riots were last year, lest we forget. An Erupting World Event. And Vines got it about 180 degrees wrong. Sample: 

Thursday, 10 December 2020

The Hunter Biden Criminal Probe Bolsters a Chinese Scholar's Claim About Beijing's Influence With the Biden Administration - Glenn Greenwald

What we knew but many millions of American voters didn't: that Biden is in Wall Street's pocket and that Wall Street is in Beijing's pocket. A Chinese academic says the quiet part out loud and Greenwald reports it:

Hunter Biden acknowledged today that he has been notified of an active criminal investigation into his tax affairs by the U.S. Attorney for Delaware. Among the numerous prongs of the inquiry, CNN reports, investigators are examining "whether Hunter Biden and his associates violated tax and money laundering laws in business dealings in foreign countries, principally China."

Documents relating to Hunter Biden's exploitation of his father's name to enrich himself and other relatives through deals with China were among the cache published in the week before the election by The New York Post — revelations censored by Twitter and Facebook and steadfastly ignored by most mainstream news outlets. That concerted repression effort by media outlets and Silicon Valley left it to right-wing outlet such as Fox News and The Daily Caller to report, which in turn meant that millions of Americans were kept in the dark before voting. 

But the just-revealed federal criminal investigation in Delaware is focused on exactly the questions which corporate media outlets refused to examine for fear that doing so would help Trump: namely, whether Hunter Biden engaged in illicit behavior in China and what impact that might have on his father's presidency.

Read on… 

Wednesday, 9 December 2020

"Covid- New powers allow Hong Kong government to lock down coronavirus hotspots" | SCMP

Oslo waterfront, December 2014

LETTER to SCMP:

"There used to be a thinking that youngsters who got infected would be fine. But this time, the perception has to be changed too. The situation is very worrying,” [C-E Carrie] Lam said.

What does our C-E mean? It remains the case that this virus kills mainly the elderly. Until the latest cluster the average age was 81 80.3 and is now 79 79.8   Is this what she means by "youngsters"? Or is she thinking of the 38 year-old male who died recently (HK's youngest)? If so, did he have pre-existing conditions?

study by the New England Journal of Medicine of 319,814 youngsters under 21 recorded 121 deaths. "Underlying medical conditions were present in 75% and included chronic lung disease, obesity, and neurologic, developmental, and cardiovascular conditions." Thus, 30 healthy youngsters died of Covid-19, a survival rate of 99.99%. Ms Lam needs to explain why we have to "change our perceptions".

In a recent letter I quoted similar statistics. I was accused (in the comments) of not caring about deaths ("a single death is too many"). I most certainly do. And I understand the risk the older people when younger relatives bring the virus home. But that is happening anyway, with home-based lockdowns. It would have been better if students had been left to their campus partying and not forced home.

I am over 70 with heart conditions. I'm in the high risk category. Yet I do not want our youngsters to be denied their livelihoods for the sake of us. That's the view of many older folk: no lockdowns. The WHO says the same.

The  line of "we are all at risk" is in pursuit of lockdown compliance. But it is not in compliance with science and statistical facts. In short, it's wrong.

Better to publicise the virus' age-specificity, to protect the vulnerable, to allow the rest to go about their business. Elderly should be protected by their own families. If my own children and grandchildren visit I will keep my distance unless they've had a clear test. This approach has to be better than on-again off-again lockdowns which are ruinous to our economy and to the lives of our youngsters. 

Some fear "our hospitals will be overwhelmed". The same was said in March, but we coped, as we did with the August wave. We have over 40,000 hospital beds and just over 1,000 hospitalised for Covid-19. Does 2.5% overwhelm our system? 

Pf, etc 


Tuesday, 8 December 2020

Pip Hare 'Fear Cannot Take Control.' - Vendée Globe



The wonderful Pip Hare again. Best writer in the fleet…
At 2am, in the pitch dark with no moon and building breeze the tack line on my code zero broke. It went with a loud bang. I was at the mast already tucking in an extra reef as I had been watching the wind slowly building from my bean bag down below. This is often how I spend my nights. Sheltering from the cold and the wet down below, reclining on the floor, propped by a beanbag behind my head and staring at a screen full of numbers.
If the numbers are within limits I will sleep, setting my alarm for 30 or 45 minutes to wake up and check them again. If the numbers are marginal I doze, eyes closed and drifting in a nearly sleeping state, somehow with my mind relaxed yet alert to a greater angle of heel, the increased rush of water past the hull and indication that the breeze is on the rise.

'The public sector delusion'

What my household here in Hong Kong noted very early in the pandemic, re lockdown vs anti-lockdown: namely, it's a pubic sector vs private sector divide. Those on the public payroll are much more amenable to lockdowns. Makes sense.  
Below, Rod Liddle savages the UK teachers' unions. Teachers unions are doing the same in the US, where they demand far greater protections than any other sector, just to go to work. Never mind the folks delivering your packages, running your supermarket, cleaning your streets. What teachers are doing, refusing work is "caring for students' health". Right. But then they aren't as demanding in Europe where they care more about parents and students than the fragile teachers. Where they really do "follow the science" which tells us young children are not at risk and schools are not vectors for the virus. 
So, here is Rod:

I wonder how much more money we will have to bung the teachers in order to inculcate within them an amenability towards doing a spot of teaching? They still seem terribly averse to the whole idea. During the first lockdown, 60 per cent of young children received no virtual lessons at all from teaching staff, and one in five pupils over 12 was given no work to do, according to the Children's Commissioner. Virtual lessons shouldn't have been terribly difficult to arrange, but most of the time there were none. My own daughter had no virtual lessons from March to July (which is why she's no longer in the state sector). She did, however, complete five physics papers and, being scatty, sent them — one after the other — to the wrong email address. Nobody noticed. 

Monday, 7 December 2020

Sailing Cornucopia: Globe, Trophy and Cup

Sodebo 3 is circled. Behind a bit is where IDEC Sports
was at the same time in 2016, the current record holder.
Sobedo 3 is currently 682 miles in front of IDEC’s then
position in the Jules Verne Trophy attempt
We’ve got such a sailing bonanza on now:

Vendée Globe: Solo, Non-Stop, Unassisted, around the world. Now in day 28 of 70+ days, in the Southern Ocean and already full of drama and intrigue. Out to win, and also beat the current record set in 2016 by Armel Le Cléac’h of 74d 03h 35m.

Jules Verne Trophy: attempt by Sodebo 3 to beat the around the world record of 40 days (and change), in a 100-foot trimaran. The rules are simple: any yacht, any size, any number of crew. They’re currently in the Southern Ocean as well, but further south than the Vendée folks, who have to stay north of an “ice barrier” around Antarctica.  She’s doing 38 knots in 22 knots of breeze!.... Currently 682 nautical miles ahead of the record holder IDEC Sports at the same time in 2016-17, when Francis Joyon set the current record of 40d 23h 30m.

Americas Cup: about to start the serious stuff, down in New Zealand, the battle amongst the challengers, starting in a week or so, before the race for the Cup itself in March.

What a treat. In the midst of Covid, this is just great to follow!

Vendée Live #28 [EN]

Click above to go to the video

Vendée Globe sailor Sam Davies has to retire after hitting a UFO (Unidentified Floating Object) and damaging her keel. Having hit a rock ourselves and finding how much damage it did to the boat that was not immediately visible, it’s no surprise she has to retire. There will be huge structural damage they will find when they pull her out.

Give her huge kudos: she’s planning to continue the race, even as a non-competitor, if they can fix the boat in Cape Town. Good on her! “That’s part of the adventure”, she says. And for the charity she represents. Initiatives du Coeur.

Looking at the damage to the keel, I’m going to go with my guess: it was a log, floating semi-submersed. It could have been a container, or a whale. But container would have been closer to the surface and a whale unlikely to have made such a clear single point damage. ADDED: a comment at the video linked above suggests cctv in the keel, to see what UFO is hit. Given the number of cameras they already have, not a bad idea!

Here’s a screenshot of her photo of the keel with her endoscope. 

A chunk out of leading edge and looks like out of 
the bulb as well
Vendée Globe Tracker

Sunday, 6 December 2020

Beijing Bully Boys

In recent decades, China has often touted its relations with Australia as a sterling example of win-win bilateral ties. China is Australia’s largest and best customer, accounting for more than a third of all Australian exports ranging from iron ore to wine to milk powder, and this strong Chinese demand powered an economic boom down under. Australia

 is also one of the most popular destinations for Chinese tourists, students, immigrants and rich investors seeking business opportunities.

It is also a favourite stop for Chinese leaders. 
Xi Jinping
 has visited Australia five times – the first trip was in 1988 when he was a local official in Fujian and the last was in November 2014 as president, when he fulfilled his wish of visiting all six Australian states. During his last visit, Xi and Tony Abbott, the prime minister at the time, agreed to upgrade bilateral ties to a “comprehensive strategic partnership” and announced the conclusion of negotiations on a landmark free trade agreement.

As Xi put it then, China and Australia could become mutually trusted “sincere partners” as they had neither historical grievances nor conflicting fundamental interests.

How times have changed. …