Ruby’s is the perspective of the Australian government, at least the civil servants at the time he was ambassador: generally China bullish. On the other side are the China bearish, at various points of negativity from the “Coming collapse of China” Gordon Chang, to the downbeat “Lei’s Real Talk” to the demography doomsayers like Peter Zeihan. And of course the on-the-ground citizen YouTubers.
Then we have the business folk, here in Hong Kong and those long term resident in China. From these I have a sense of tightening, more anti-foreigner sentiment. Not exactly optimism. They’re still in there, ims one cases because they have to be, in others because they’re handling wealthy Chinese who are ra,img their money out of China. If voting with your Renminbi counts for anything, it’s also bearish.
I don’t buy the “China collapse” narrative. Mainly because forty-plus years in China, I’ve heard that for all that time and all that time China has just got stronger.
But still… Xi Jinping is not an about to be overthrown, but nor is he quite as comfortable in his position as he was pre pandemic. The CCP is not about to be overthrown, but nor is it the behemoth that 100 million members might indicate, because most are members simply for their career, not necuae they are ideologically aligned, a bit like having to be Catholic in a Catholic country — it gets you ahead.
Back to Geoff Raby and his “perspective”. He was Australia’s ambassador to China 2007-2011. I know Geoff from last century. I was at the height of my public service 1990-1995, when my position was ambassador level. I attended innumerable meetings between Australian and Chinese Ministers and most senior officials, many with Geoff. I served three Australian ambassadors over my whole time in the Oz civil service.
One thing the Chinese are very good at is duchessing ambassadors. They treat them so well, with so much respect, they really look after them, call them “old friends” (老朋友) who “understand China” (了解中国) — the China they are presented with, of course! That’s the treatment Geoff Raby has had. It’s no wonder he reports only the good news about China. The only people he meets in China when he visits these days are Chinese officials who let him know the latest good news in how great things are in China. If he didn’t report positive, he would no longer be given access to the “senior officials” he’s so proud of quoting.
He would have been escorted during his most recent visit and if he’d asked not to be they would have followed him anyway and made sure he didn’t speak to any unauthorised folks in the street. Look at his reporting! The Chinese have done a good job! He’s a spokesman for the Communist Party of China. On’ya Geoff!
If Raby were writing for an academic journal he’d have to give a “statement on conflict of interests” setting this out. As it is, writing as Op-Ed, all is fine, just go right along with carrying water for the communist party and you’ll be lionised in the comments.
