Sunday, 6 August 2023

“Stronger typhoons to batter Hong Kong” [Or not…]

Online here
Note the much less scary headline of the online version 
What is the evidence for this?
Answer: None.

Especially not for “stronger and longer lasting”. Using data from the Hong Kong Observatory itself, I did the figuring recently, "No, Hurricanes (aka Typhoons) aren’t getting worse or more frequent”. 

The data trend lines suggest the exact opposite: tropical cyclones, which include typhoons, have trended slightly down in recent decades. 

Data from over 1,000 years in Guangdong show the most intense periods of typhoon activity were in the 17th and 19th centuries. 

Isn’t Director Chan Pak-wai’s prediction here pure speculation? Certainly not based on past records. If it’s based on modelling he needs to tell us what the assumptions are