… And crushes Dumb Ford, and Dumb Mercedes, and Dumb Kia. And Dumb any car.
“Dumb” is any car that’s not Smart. That can’t drive itself. That can’t update its OS overnight. That can’t deliver energy to the grid, for money. That can’t be ten times safer than humans driving.
Flashback to 17 years ago, in Antarctica. We’re there in Christmas Day 2009. We’re sitting on the deck of a smallish expedition ship, the Ocean Explorer. We’re anchored in Half Moon Bay on the Antarctic Peninsula. The sea is calm. Overhead a cloudless sky, a windless day. A rarity in Antarctica. It’s so calm and peaceful, it’s almost surreal. Anchored for Christmas amidst icebergs, penguins and assorted sea creatures.
We’re sitting on an outside deck, enjoying the pale midsummer sun. It’s a balmy zero centigrade. We’re sipping our pre-lunch champagnes in shirtsleeves.
Time for present giving. I give Jing the newly-released “iPhone”, the one that everyone’s been talking about. The very first model. Which you may recall now as clunky and buggy. But was super hyped at the time. The other presents I don’t recall, but don’t matter to this story. Which is about the iPhone. Which (to remind) I gave Jing. Who professed satisfaction.
A few weeks later, back in Hong Kong. It’s my birthday and I find my present from Jing is an iPhone. Jolly good, I thought. She’s so enjoyed the one I gave her that she’s gone and got me one too. We can share experiences!
But no! The one I’m holding is the very same one I gave her in Antarctica a few weeks ago! She explains. She’s just too wedded to her Nokia Foldable phone. She can’t give it away, so best that I have this newfangled iPhone thingie.
OK. Fine. NP.
I take it on board our boat Xena and show to our crew. It gets passed around. There’s been a huge amount of hype,people want to see it. The conclusion is almost unanimous, in line with what Herbert Ong describes above. Versions of: “This keyless keyboard thing won’t work. I’ll stick to my Blackberry”.
And here we are today. Blackberry is bankrupt and iPhone is dominant. A phone which redefined what a phone was and could be.
Tesla is in the same place as Apple was then. We’re in another iPhone moment. When a car is about to redefine what a car is. If you believe this, then Tesla is the best stock to buy for the next half century. At least.
Oh. There’s a follow up to Jing’s re-gifting the iPhone to me. I’m sitting in bed, doing stuff in my new iPhone. The one I gave her and which she boomeranged back to me. She looks over my shoulder, trying not to seem interested, but can’t help herself. Asks to have a look. I show her. Next week she’s bought her own iPhone. We’re not in model 13 now…. In how many homes did that happen?
Watch the video above, and imagine the same happening to Tesla. As a robotics and AI company, not as a car company.
ADDED: Tesla Full Self Driving approved in The Netherlands, described as “the best system”. Soon to be approved in rest of Europe.
