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| Huawei 5G ad in Beijing |
We used to think China would democratize. Wrong. We used to think the regime would liberalize. Wrong. We used to think the Chinese people would rise up and join the free democratic world. Wrong. [my emphasis]
Speak for yourself David. "We" did not think these things. "We" were not so naive. Those of us who have studied, worked and lived in China; who have married China in various ways; who have advised companies and governments about China; these "we" did not believe "China would democratize", we did not think it would "join the free democratic world".
And I'm not speaking with 20-20 hindsight. We have our writings at the time to attest to that.
We did however hope that China might "liberalize" and we did not predict a dictatorial brute like Xi Jinping. That wasn't a given. We might well have seen an enlightened autocrat, a liberal-minded authoritarian like, say Jiang Zemin (who I met in 1994 when he was President of China) or, better, someone like former premier Zhu Rongji (who I met when he was Mayor of Shanghai in 1987).
In other words, it didn't have to be Xi Jinping. But it was. And Woe China. At least, that's what I think; Chinese seem to love him. (Then again, many Chinese openly admire Hitler. It's all about being a "strong leader").
For all that Xi may be popular, I don't see how it's best for China. He makes the world suspicious of China, instead of steering it to valued strategic partnership in the comity of nations.
A while ago someone commented that the United States had a simple dream: Freedom. What was China's simple single-word dream? they asked. Xi talks of the 中国梦, the China Dream. But I've not seen it defined and certainly not in a single word. What is it? Shall we guess? Control? Communism? Harmony? Peace? Until we know that it has a single-word inspiring dream that benefits more than just China, we must remain wary of a world or region dominated by an Imperium Sinica.
A while ago someone commented that the United States had a simple dream: Freedom. What was China's simple single-word dream? they asked. Xi talks of the 中国梦, the China Dream. But I've not seen it defined and certainly not in a single word. What is it? Shall we guess? Control? Communism? Harmony? Peace? Until we know that it has a single-word inspiring dream that benefits more than just China, we must remain wary of a world or region dominated by an Imperium Sinica.
Take the South China Sea for example. The United States is here for a reason: freedom of navigation. There it again, that word "freedom". And we know that the US means it because it's been doing exactly that for seventy years, making sure shipping can flow freely through these seas, and indeed throughout the world.
But China? What's it doing? Muscling out other countries with claims to various parts of the Sea, building bases on previously pristine reefs, destroying marine ecosystems in the process, challenging traditional fisheries, dangerous driving (nearly ramming US Navy vessels). in short it's exerting control for the benefit of … China.
For some time I thought that we ought to take China as a strategic partner. Be open eyed about its mercantilist practices , but take it as a partner in a world divided into two ("one divides into two", 一分为二, as Mao said). The two sides being: the Constructing (or building) world, made up of the West plus China and most of Asia. And the Destructing world, made up of the Islamic and ex-Soviet worlds.
But now we can't count on China. It too is becoming destructive. Destructive to the world economic and geopolitical order, Destructive of peace, as it continues to cosy up to the world's dictators and thugs.
