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Having said just the other day that I won't listen to a Chinese academic talk to me about the world situation, without a bucketload of salt at my side, I come across this video. Where the good prof speaks sense to the world.
On China-Taiwan: what he says is what I've said for aeons: keep to the Status Quo. It's what's worked for everyone: for China, for Taiwan, for Japan, for the US. If China invades Taiwan, no matter if it takes over or if it doesn't: the result is failure. Because it will be bad, very bad, shocking… for China. Not to mention for the others. And it will take generations to get over it. If it ever is got over. Think WW2 and how we're still dealing with outcomes from that fully four generations later.
The interview is on X. I can't work out if I can get it on YouTube, so you have to have X.
00:48 – Meet Yasheng Huang: Born into a CCP family, Harvard-trained, and now at MIT 02:00 – A Clash of Systems: the struggle between 2 political economies: state-led capitalism vs. open-market democracy 03:10 – Rare Earths as a Weapon: China's dominance in rare earth refining (≈90%) becomes a tool of strategic leverage 04:40 – U.S. Dependence & Global Shockwaves: Rare earths in phones, cars, and missiles 06:05 – Tech Becomes the Battlefield: From chip bans to tariffs, both sides weaponize technology 08:44 – The Xi–Trump Trade Gambit: China wields rare earths ahead of the summit as a bargaining chip. 10:00 – Did Beijing Overplay Its Hand? Huang argues yes - coercive strength often breeds global distrust 12:00 – The New Resource Race: Japan, Australia, and the U.S. rush to secure alternative rare earth supplies 14:00 – Short-Term Dominance, Strategic Weakness: China can shock the system now, but decoupling will hurt it more later 17:00 – Hard vs. Soft Assets: Why China's dominance in infrastructure doesn't equal innovation power 18:10 – Innovation Wars: China's imitation-driven model versus America's innovation advantage 21:00 – 3 Critical Years Ahead: innovation, resilience, and diplomacy will determine the decade 23:15 – China's Economy Under the Microscope: beneath it lies debt, inefficiency, and shrinking productivity 25:30 – The Illusion of Prosperity: Ghost cities, unproductive infrastructure, and overinvestment 28:00 – Misread by the West: Investors still treat China like a high-growth miracle 35:00 – Militarization of the Economy: Civilian industries repurposed for defense 38:45 – Taiwan and the logic of deterrence - "They want to win without fighting" 41:00 – The Invasion Dilemma: Any move on Taiwan risks economic collapse and regime legitimacy 44:00 – Nationalism & Public Opinion: Propaganda builds unity, but enthusiasm for real war low 46:30 – Inside the CCP: The shrinking circle of advisers. "No one tells the emperor he's wrong" 49:00 – The End of Debate: Technocrats are replaced by loyalists 55:00 – America's Advantage: Democratic systems self-correct - "a feature autocracies can't replicate" 58:00 – The Next Decade: Multipolarity emerges; both superpowers constrained by internal limits 59:30 – Closing Thoughts: Peace requires strength - and restraint
