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| Slight uptick in number of new cases, slight decrease in rate |
Hong Kong: “Mainland quarantine evaders risk jail”. Fake news prompts panic buying. Here in our Discovery Bay eyrie all is calm, save for some strategic low-level panic buying … toilet paper, wet wipes…
China: Death of virus whistleblower, Dr Li Wenliang (34), leads to freedom of speech calls in China. Big challenge for Beijing. Though Xi is predicted to crack down even further.
Other random news: shop revenues in HK down 80%. KFC and Pizza Hut close half their restaurants in China. Cathay Pacific and HK Airlines laying off staff. Hong Kong Sevens and Art Basel both cancelled. I’m going to call it as rather too much panic. Though it would sure be nice to see a definitive downturn in new cases.
OTOH: medical staff in Hong Kong are back on duty after their strike earlier this week. Which some said was civil unrest by other means. And disease expert says recovery rates promising.
ADDED: Under reader pressure, and bearing in mind that it’s still early in this pandemic -- too early, perhaps, to do projections -- I’m posting a chart of forecast of when the number of new cases (the “Increase” in above Table) may reach zero, based on an Excel formula called “Forecast”. It comes out at 14 February 2020. (Valentines Day!). Let’s not be surprised if it’s a bit longer. Though when I did the same for SARS back in 2003, it was spot on...
Here it is FWIW:
