Reflections from a mate in the States:
It is 244 years since the founders of the republic (recently labeled racist in the current orgy of wokeness) signed the declaration of independence. All running a real risk of hanging, John Hancock went out of his way to sign extra large so the King could see his signature, as he put it.
It is not clear whether this is a happy birthday. The pessimist in me drones on about economic in collapse as a result of the virus and the recent spike in cases, record budget deficits, public debt, public unrest, increasing crime (a direct result of the efforts to de-fund the police) and a highly contested political season not seen since the late sixties. An increasingly unpopular president (according to most polls) and what appears to be a senile candidate to replace him, moving further to the extreme left of the political spectrum. If there was no shock absorber in the system, this could end badly!
But there is a shock absorber.
The American political process however unruly, the resiliency and flexibility of the American free capitalist system. Since WWII the US recovered smartly from a deep recession just after the war, the Korean conflict, the Vietnam war, the race riots in the late sixties, the oil crises followed by high unemployment and high interest rates in the late seventies. While this went on, the US put a man on the moon, created the best technology in the world while vanquishing the Soviet Union without firing a shot. Then rounded off the 20thcentury with a strong economy and budget surpluses. The leader if every field.
We then promptly lost the first 15 years of the new millennium. 9/11 led to ill-considered foreign wars and a devastating recession followed by a hopeful presidency that ultimately fizzled, accomplishing little and set the stage for Donald Trump and meaningful reforms.
The optimistic side of me says that we will get through this. Never bet against the US. While the press and social media predict calamity and stoke conflict, the American people is quietly getting on with it. My daily interactions with business people and ordinary folks during these last several months give me hope. Discussions continue in a rational way, solving problems, moving forward. Of course there is uncertainly about the virus and the election, but we have all been here before, more or less. And yet, we are still here.
Happy 4th.
