Our coronavirus cases here in Hong Kong jumped in the last few days, after months of close to zero. So we’ve reinstated mild lockdowns, more distancing rules at eateries, clubs and gyms. Schools will close early for the summer.
What’s going on worldwide? Answer: nothing much. For three months, worldwide daily deaths from Covid have been flat, at around 4,500.
Here is a chart of mine, to mid July:
The figures May to July are flat, even as we’ve had worldwide easing of lockdowns. Is this the “new normal”? Maybe so; if would make sense that we’ve managed to “flatten the curve”. If it is the new normal, then annualised deaths, based in the current average per month, would be around, let’s say, 1.6 million. How does it compare with worldwide deaths from other diseases? Answer: around the level of diabetes or liver disease. Serious to be sure. Not the worst, though, and surely one that can be endured, at roughly 2% of the 170,000 world’s daily deaths from all causes. Here are the annual figures of worldwide mortality, by cause:
What’s going on worldwide? Answer: nothing much. For three months, worldwide daily deaths from Covid have been flat, at around 4,500.
Here is a chart of mine, to mid July:
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| From my spreadsheet based on Worldometer figures |
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| Click to enlarge |
So the question remains: is it worth locking down whole economies, or to continue discussing the reinstating lockdowns (as they’re doing now in Melbourne, my daughter’s home town) for something at this level of human mortality?
My answer: NO, of course not.
It remains the case that there is no statistical link between strength of lockdown and Covid mortality.
It remains the case that there is no statistical link between strength of lockdown and Covid mortality.
I showed this back in May.
Critics of Sweden’s mild lockdowns who compare its death rates unfavourably with its Nordic neighbours, are left with the awkward question: then why has Sweden done better than Spain, UK, Italy and Belgium, all of which had stringent lockdowns?
In the US, with the highest death rates, its 50 states have adopted widely different strategies, and again there is no correlation between stringency of lockdown and death rates. Nor is there, by the way, any correlation between death rates per Republican or Democrat-run state, despite what the US media would have you believe.
So why keep talking lockdowns? Especially why continue lockdown of schools, given we know the virus only mildly affects the young, and that countries that have reopened schools have not suffered Covid spikes.
We have to start treating the daily deaths from Covid as our new normal, somewhere towards the bottom of our morbidity and mortality pack. Protect the vulnerable, promote disinfecting and masks. And get back to work, to school and to play.
