"A study of lights at night suggests dictators lie about economic growth” || The Economist

China, far right, exaggerates its GDP by over 100%

This is interesting -- A study of lights at night suggests dictators lie about economic growth. There’s plenty of studies to show the accuracy of estimating GDP -- especially its growth -- by looking at lights by satellite. Lights, i.e. electricity use, are a great proxy for GDP.

This comes to mind because of some figures out of China today that showed 3.9% growth in the latest quarter, even during Zero Covid Policy. Assuming the estimates above are correct -- China overestimates by over double -- then the likely real figure is under 2%. For China that’s a disaster. Youth unemployment is over 20%. There’s a huge debt overhang. Xi, now dictator  for life, is squashing down on the private sector. 

China has always outperformed on the upside. I’ve seen it with mine own eyes. But maybe that’s not the case for too much longer.

ADDED: In the 20 years studied above, China’s GDP annual compound growth rate was likely 5% and not the over 10% they claim.