Monday 14 August 2023

The weight of evidence buries the idea that Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was unprovoked

Click above for link to tweet with vid embedded
This is just a summary of what’s there and irrefutable. I used to believe that Putin was a revanchist and that he would have attacked Ukraine no matter what. But that was never tested, because there was a lot of “what” that happened. David Sachs quotes Alexander Mercouris on what that “What” was. I used to follow Mercouris then stopped as I thought him too Putin-y. But he knows whereof he speaks and what he says makes a lot of sense. 

The evidence suggests also that it’s categorically wrong to think -- as I did at the beginning of Russia’s invasion -- that the concept of Nazis in Ukraine was absurd. They are there, there’s lots of them and they're everywhere. From all that we can gather of their allegiances and Nazi symbols. 

It’s also true that there were opportunities for the Biden administration to get peace, which they failed to do either because of arrogance or incompetence. John Mearsheimer view is incompetence. 

@DavidSacks summarise what that “what” was:

THE FORKS IN THE ROAD

In this video from his podcast, @AMercouris provides an excellent historical summary of the choices that the U.S. faced in the lead-up to the Ukraine War that would have averted the current disaster:
In 2004, the US could have stayed out of Ukrainian affairs altogether, but instead it chose to support a color revolution.
In 2008, the US could have listened to then-ambassador, now-CIA director Bill Burns’ advice not to expand NATO to Ukraine because it would cross the brightest of all redlines for the entire Russian leadership. But instead the US issued the Bucharest declaration that Ukraine would join NATO. 

In 2013, the US and its European allies could have compromised on the EU accession agreement to address Russian concerns. But instead they maintained that they would not change even a punctuation mark. 
In 2014, the US could have supported a peaceful transition of power in Ukraine. But instead it backed the Maidan coup against a democratically-elected government. 
In 2015-2022, the US could have supported peaceful attempts, via the Minsk agreements, to resolve the protests by ethnic Russians that broke out in reaction to the coup. But instead it supported Kiev’s attempts to violently suppress and shell the Donbas. 
In 2021-2022, the US could have negotiated over the draft Russian agreements which principally sought a written guarantee that Ukraine would not join NATO. But instead it insisted that it would never compromise over that policy. 
In 2022, after the war broke out, the US could have supported the peace process in Belarus and Istanbul, but instead it sabotaged those agreements. And now, in the wake of a failing counteroffensive, the US could seek to enter into serious negotiations with the Russians, but instead it’s demanding that the slaughter continue. 
At every fork in the road, the US foreign policy elite have chosen the path of confrontation and conflict as opposed to compromise and peace.