Tuesday, 6 August 2013

We're saved!

Even if governments do nothing to support renewables, it seems that market forces will come to our aid.  The cost of solar is dropping dramatically with growth rates are in the mid 40s to 50s percent range.  Meantime, something the same is happening to wind.
By my calculations, we'll go from the following mix today, for electricity production:

That is, Fossil 56%, while Wind and Solar are 6% and 2%... to the following in 2031:

That is Fossil down to 7%, while Wind and Solar are 47% and 18%.  Water -- i.e., HEP -- stays pretty much the same (16%) while Nuclear goes down from 20% to 11%.
This is a dramatic change, and looks not unlikely to happen (my natural civil service caution kicking in there....)
This is from some projections I made based on current figures, with sources in the original Excel sheet...
No one, not even the climate denying right, ought to be against this trend, as it will clean the air, while providing jobs.  Of course the climate denying right will be against it on the grounds -- they will argue -- that there will have to be massive subsidies to achieve this outcome, and that this will affect global growth.  That whole subsidy issue is a fraught area, but I think the weight of evidence is that subsidies to renewables are likely to be no greater than subsidies to Fossils, and may well be less.  There appears to be a genuine technical revolution going on, especially in solar, that will keep on reducing costs relative to fossil. EG: Concentrated Solar Power, which gives 24/7 power.