UPDATE (29 April): on the very day I posted this WHO came out and praised the Swedish model. Lockdown fanatics are always quoting the WHO. Now?Some people think that this piece in CNN, the headline above, debunks the theory that the “Swedish model” of very limited lockdown, works. Because the article claims that the deaths per million in Sweden are worse than in neighbouring Scandinavian countries, which are in Lockdown. QED. So they think.
But, no. CNN does not debunk that. The think they do, but they don’t. The article most certainly does not prove that Sweden’s more relaxed policies are not working.
So, I’ll redo the above headline:
“CNN claims Sweden’s coronavirus model has not worked. The numbers suggest a different story”.
Consider:
1. Only looks at Covid-related deaths. Not the costs of lockdown.
2. These costs include mental health problems, addiction, domestic abuse, and child abuse, all of which are increasing in lockdown countries.
3. There are more non-Covid deaths as result of lockdowns. Example: people not coming in for cancer treatments. In the UK alone, this is expected to lead to 3,000 extra deaths.
4. Hospitals are unused for non-Covid diseases. From a Consultant Anaesthetist who is now Medical Director:
Our hospital has effectively become a series of covid-19 wards with a large critical care unit alongside. There are empty wards, which is practically unheard of, normally. [All here]BBC recently showed empty wards. Operating Theatres being used as store rooms for Covid-gear. Presumably, this is happening in other lockdown countries. We know it is in the US. Given that “save our healthcare systems” was a rallying cry for lockdowns, isn’t it time to say, ok, we’ve done that. And get back to work.
5. The Economy: I’ve done a calculation of the costs of Swedish non-lockdown, vs lockdowns in the other Scandinavian countries. Because we do have to have some idea of what the trade off is. Not good enough to say, as Cuomo did the other night, that “one death is too many”. Well, yes, but... there’s the reality based world, where deaths do happen. And we take account of their costs, for policy trade offs, all the time. My calculation -- simplistic, I’ll readily agree -- is that the cost of lockdown for Norway, Finland and Denmark, is between $US35 and $US93 billion, more than the costs to Sweden of not locking down. That's to date and can only increase. In other words, and pace CNN, the numbers go the other way. [I could be off by a factor of ten, and the point still holds. It holds even if I’m off by a factor of 100. The spreadsheet is here].
Yes, Sweden’s policy has cost more lives. And yes, these are all lives to be mourned. But we must put a value on them, as we always do, and according to that value (using a VSL of $US 7million -- far higher than Chicago U uses), Sweden is doing very well. And will likely not have to deal with any dreaded “second wave”, that other lockdown states are fearing.
QED...
Related: What is the true cost of the coronavirus lockdown? Professor Paul Dolan
