What I really mean is: IF China lied about the figures, so what? Would things be any different?
Short answer: No.
Here’s the narrative on the Right, as I read it:
Let’s assume for a minute that China did lie about the number of cases and deaths. And, by the way, I totally accept that news was stifled and doctors were silenced, at the beginning of the outbreak, which put us 2 to 4 weeks behind the game. What I’m talking about here, is the current situation and the current number of cases and deaths.
Let’s assume they are out by a factor of ten, which is above what the severest critics are claiming.
Are we supposed to believe that America would have acted any differently? When the US response and that of Europe was to mock the Chinese? Are we supposed to believe that Trump would have acted any differently, when the whole narrative coming out of the White House, out of Trump, out off the Administraion was along the lines of “we’ve only got one case, and we’ll control it, fine”, or “we’ve only got 15 cases and it’s under control”? Sure, Trump shut down travel from China early, but then nothing, for a month. How would different China figures made any difference to that dynamic, which was driven by arrogance and complacency?
In short, nothing different would have occurred in America and Europe even assuming China’s figures were much higher than they were reporting.
It’s nonsense to suggest otherwise.
Then again, were they really lying about the figurers? The fact is, I don’t know and neither do you. The only evidence we seem to have from all these sources in the US, circles back to one source: Radio Free Asia. That’s a virulently anti-China site. But fine, ok, let’s go with it. What is its evidence? Answer: Anonymous sources and social media posts.... about as reliable as my left knee...
I can believe -- though I have no evidence, other than those anecdotal cherry- picked social media posts -- that Chinese officials downplayed the infections and the deaths.
What happens if we assume the worst?
Here’s my spreadsheets below, with the worst affected worldwide plus Australia and Hong Kong.
But first, on the WHO criticism? People on the Right have been saying the WHO is a creature of China, they are Chinese lackeys. I assumed they thought this because China was a major donor to the WHO. Well, no, it isn’t. The major donor is the United States (25%), the next the UK (7%), then a bunch of others, and down, down, down the list, China at under 1%. And virtually none of WHO programs are in China. So how, precisely, is the WHO supposed to be under the thumb of China?
China and the WHO were warning since 31 December, that the world had to brace for a major outbreak of the coronavirus. The West’s response was to laugh and mock. And then, when it came true, to try to sift the blame. Shame on them.
Shame on: Ben Shapiro, Scott Adams, Mahyar Tousi, Dan Wootton, Tim Pool, Douglas Murray, Greg Sheridan, shame on all of these men for peddling crap -- not that China is lying (maybe it is) but that it and it alone is responsible for this world-wide pandemic, when it’s that failures of the west that are; shame on them for for peddling the idea that China has “blood on its hands”, shame on them for peddling the idea that WHO is a “running dog”. In short, shame on them for peddling nonsense. Shame on them all.
Spreadsheet by selected country:
Short answer: No.
Here’s the narrative on the Right, as I read it:
China lied about the virus from the get-go. WHO is complicit in that lie. Therefore we were not given adequate time to prepare for the virus. That’s why we have such massive outbreaks now. Therefore China owes us. “China has blood on its hands”. “China must pay”.This is insane but it’s coming from what I’d normally call the “sane Right”, not the Alt-Right neo-Nazi nutters, but from usually sensible conservative commentators, who say things like “Fact don’t care about your feelings” yet have now, in the face of a pandemic, let their feelings dominate their facts. In fact, how things might really have been different is if the West had listened to China and the WHO earlier and done something about controlling the virus. But they didn’t, they are where they are now and they blame China and claim WHO is just a lackey.
Let’s assume for a minute that China did lie about the number of cases and deaths. And, by the way, I totally accept that news was stifled and doctors were silenced, at the beginning of the outbreak, which put us 2 to 4 weeks behind the game. What I’m talking about here, is the current situation and the current number of cases and deaths.
Let’s assume they are out by a factor of ten, which is above what the severest critics are claiming.
Are we supposed to believe that America would have acted any differently? When the US response and that of Europe was to mock the Chinese? Are we supposed to believe that Trump would have acted any differently, when the whole narrative coming out of the White House, out of Trump, out off the Administraion was along the lines of “we’ve only got one case, and we’ll control it, fine”, or “we’ve only got 15 cases and it’s under control”? Sure, Trump shut down travel from China early, but then nothing, for a month. How would different China figures made any difference to that dynamic, which was driven by arrogance and complacency?
In short, nothing different would have occurred in America and Europe even assuming China’s figures were much higher than they were reporting.
It’s nonsense to suggest otherwise.
Then again, were they really lying about the figurers? The fact is, I don’t know and neither do you. The only evidence we seem to have from all these sources in the US, circles back to one source: Radio Free Asia. That’s a virulently anti-China site. But fine, ok, let’s go with it. What is its evidence? Answer: Anonymous sources and social media posts.... about as reliable as my left knee...
I can believe -- though I have no evidence, other than those anecdotal cherry- picked social media posts -- that Chinese officials downplayed the infections and the deaths.
What happens if we assume the worst?
Here’s my spreadsheets below, with the worst affected worldwide plus Australia and Hong Kong.
But first, on the WHO criticism? People on the Right have been saying the WHO is a creature of China, they are Chinese lackeys. I assumed they thought this because China was a major donor to the WHO. Well, no, it isn’t. The major donor is the United States (25%), the next the UK (7%), then a bunch of others, and down, down, down the list, China at under 1%. And virtually none of WHO programs are in China. So how, precisely, is the WHO supposed to be under the thumb of China?
China and the WHO were warning since 31 December, that the world had to brace for a major outbreak of the coronavirus. The West’s response was to laugh and mock. And then, when it came true, to try to sift the blame. Shame on them.
Shame on: Ben Shapiro, Scott Adams, Mahyar Tousi, Dan Wootton, Tim Pool, Douglas Murray, Greg Sheridan, shame on all of these men for peddling crap -- not that China is lying (maybe it is) but that it and it alone is responsible for this world-wide pandemic, when it’s that failures of the west that are; shame on them for for peddling the idea that China has “blood on its hands”, shame on them for peddling the idea that WHO is a “running dog”. In short, shame on them for peddling nonsense. Shame on them all.
Spreadsheet by selected country:
 |
| Official figues for these selected countries, as at end March |
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| Assume China had 1 million cases and 50,000 deaths |
If we assume well over ten times the numbers for China cases and deaths, it is still in parameters, for cases per million, deaths per million, just the recovery rate drops. The outliners are not China. They are Italy and Spain. In terms of cases and deaths per million.
