LETTER TO THE AUSTRALIAN
[NOTE to Letters Editor: this is not a letter to the editor so much as a comment to pass on to Mr Loosley, if you would. But by all means publish it if you wish]:
Mr Loosley, I found your article today well argued and persuasive. A good summary of how Australia ought to play its multilateral ties to best advantage in this increasingly complex world.
[NOTE to Letters Editor: this is not a letter to the editor so much as a comment to pass on to Mr Loosley, if you would. But by all means publish it if you wish]:
Mr Loosley, I found your article today well argued and persuasive. A good summary of how Australia ought to play its multilateral ties to best advantage in this increasingly complex world.
But...
The figures on Chinese vs US economy projections can't be correct.
For the Chinese economy to be worth $42 Trillion by 2030 it would need to grow at 8% pa*. That used to be the case but is no longer. Growing at the more likely 6% pa would give it a nominal GDP of about $30 T by then. (And even that may be a stretch)..
The US economy is worth today some $24 T. So for it to be the same in 2030 means zero growth, again unlikely.
If the US grows instead about 2% pa, its economy would be some $ 35 T, still larger than China's, not 43% smaller as implied by the Treasury figures quoted.
For the Chinese economy to be worth $42 Trillion by 2030 it would need to grow at 8% pa*. That used to be the case but is no longer. Growing at the more likely 6% pa would give it a nominal GDP of about $30 T by then. (And even that may be a stretch)..
The US economy is worth today some $24 T. So for it to be the same in 2030 means zero growth, again unlikely.
If the US grows instead about 2% pa, its economy would be some $ 35 T, still larger than China's, not 43% smaller as implied by the Treasury figures quoted.
This doesn't invalidate the point you make about the importance of our relationship with China and of its with the US. But still, lies, damned lies... and all that. Best to get the figures as correct as possible in these days of "fake news", what?
P F etc..
* Figures I use are from the World Bank.
