SpaceX IPO Day. Yay!

Just to note that today is the launch of SpaceX as a public company, in the United States, via its Initial Public Offering (IPO), fixed at $US 135 per share. 

This is set to be the largest IPO in world history. 

Still, Demand is through the roof. Or up in space. 

I've been long Elon for a long time. Long Tesla. Plan to be long SpaceX, though might wait for a time, till things settle. No particular rush. This is a Buy 'er and Keeper. 

I've posted often about SpaceX, with the posts that come up by putting "SpaceX" in the search box, listed here. 

To Infinity.... And Beyond!...

Me, Mother, Tokyo, 1953

Record Tesla sales here in Hong Kong

 

In May, Tesla Hong Kong: not just best selling EV, but best selling car of any type, gas or electric, full stop.

AMayzing. 

Artificial Intelligence Civil Wars

I’ve noted before how often different AI Large Language Models like Claude, ChatGPT, Google Gemini, Grok, can give very different answers to the same question. You’ve got to be super careful and double-check everything.

Case in point:

Famous Car guy Sandy Munro says he has sold his company Munro & Associates. Revealed in a recent vid on Tesla Jigsaw YouTube channel, at a gathering of Tesla fans in Austria.

Seemed a genuine statement to me. I wanted to know when the sale had happened and how much Sandy had sold it for. I asked Google’s Gemini AI, and this is its answer:

Sandy Munro has not sold his company, Munro & Associates. [1, 2]

His statement about selling was a playful comment or misinterpretation. He recently appeared in an unfiltered interview at the Tesla Takeover event in Austria on the Tesla Jigsaw X feed, where he dropped a surprise "I sold my company" line at the end. [1]

Because it was part of an unfiltered, informal chat—and as he often teases retirement—this was widely understood within the community as a lighthearted quip rather than a literal business acquisition announcement. As such, no company sale date or financial figure exists for a formal buyout. Munro remains at the helm of his engineering and manufacturing consulting firm. [1, 2]

Hmmm…

Let’s ask Grok. Where I gave Grok the link to the video and Gemini’s response that it’s all a joke. Fact check please. Here’s Grok’s comment:

Sandy Munro did say he sold his company (Munro & Associates) in the recent interview video you linked (from June 10, 2026, at the Tesla Takeover event in Austria). It does not appear to be a joke based on the context and delivery. 

Key Details from the Video and Context

•  In the interview with Tesla Jigsaw (around the 27:15 timestamp in the full video), Sandy states: “All right. So, um, I sold my company.” He frames it positively as an opportunity for “something more rewarding,” mentioning “divine intervention” and stepping back from day-to-day decisions/ownership responsibilities while still being involved in a less operational role (e.g., not doing “GM-type thinking”). 

•  The interviewer and video title/description treat it as a genuine “bombshell” about selling Munro & Associates, his long-running engineering consulting firm known for Lean Design, teardowns, and benchmarking (especially Tesla-related work). 

•  No indications in the clip or related discussion that it’s sarcasm or kidding—Sandy’s tone aligns with his straightforward, opinionated style on other topics in the same interview (e.g., legacy auto, Elon Musk, EVs).

Supporting Evidence (or Lack Thereof)

•  Company status: The official Munro & Associates site (leandesign.com) remains fully active, promoting services, team work, and Sandy’s legacy. No announcements of a sale, rebranding, or shutdown. 

•  Public reaction: Recent X posts and shares of the video treat the statement as factual news from the interview, with no widespread claims it’s a joke. Older references to Sandy and the company don’t contradict this. 

•  No independent confirmations yet of a buyer, deal details, or ownership change in news sources (as of now—it’s a very recent video). This is common for private company transactions; they often aren’t publicized immediately with full details.

Bottom Line

It looks legitimate: Sandy has likely sold (majority) ownership of Munro & Associates, allowing him more freedom to speak candidly, travel, and pursue other interests (consistent with his age and long career since founding the firm in 1988/1989). He may still consult or be affiliated in some capacity, which explains why the company website and branding continue unchanged. 

No red flags for it being a prank or exaggeration. If more details emerge (e.g., via Munro Live channel or official statements), they should clarify further. The video is worth watching in full for the broader context of his comments.

Well, I dunno. Grok’s answer strikes me as more well thought out than Gemini’s. By the way I did tell Gemini about the video. Which you see from above it simply dismissed as a “playful comment”. Maybe Sandy has the best poker face of all time. But it didn’t seem like kidding to me. Would one kid about selling a super well known company? 

Time will tell. My money’s on the Grok analysis.

But, yet again, this tells us how much we need to be wary of AI answers and analyses. 

Something’s Wrong in the State of California

Bridget Phetasy brings the receipts. 

Fraud and corruption in the state of California. Here focused on the weird results in the current voting results for mayor of Los Angeles.

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck…. And so on…

The CA ruling elite are scared rotten of their corruption being exposed by LA  Mayor candidate Spencer Pratt. So they had to drum him out of the race. 

Just recently the CA legislature passed a “Stop Nick Shirley Act”. Which criminalises not the acts of fraud and corruption, but the person trying to uncover them. Prompted by the amazing reporting by young Nick Shirley of widespread fraud and corruption in Minnesota and California. 

CA lawmakers were questioned about this Act. But they passed it anyway.

Just one more bit of “California legalises fraud” story of Bridget’s. 

The Zombie Apocalypse: Communism Redux (or.. What Paul Krugman DIDN'T say)

I recall an Oxford Union talk, in 2020, with the guest American Nobel laureate in Economics, professor Paul Krugman. He of a weekly New York Times column. He, a beloved man of the liberal-progressive Left. Oft-quoted in the uber-liberal academic blog "Crooked Timber".  

Krugman talks of "Zombie ideas". Which, he claims, are very severe on the Right, in the Republican party. But not in the Democratic Party: "...all important Zombies are on the Right because that's where the money is."

The Zombie idea on the Right that most got on his goat is "the trickle down theory", described in his talk as "cutting taxes for the wealthy". Which Krugman claimed had been debunked over and over, yet kept reappearing, he said, like a shambling Zombie. 

The trickle down theory, aka "tax cuts for the rich", and whether or not it's a "Zombie idea" is for another time. But no "important" Zombie ideas on the Left?

Well, I thought. Paul K may not recognise any "Zombie ideas" on the Left, but I sure do. What about the idea of Socialism for a start? 

Socialism, no matter what form ("nice" Democratic-Socialism, or not-so-nice Authoritarian-Communism), has been tried again and again. Again and again it's failed. Yet again and again it rises. How it this not seen as the monster "Zombie idea" of the Left? The OG of Zombie ideas. Answer: because it's actually believed. The Left genuinely believes -- at least I believe they believe --  that Socialism holds the promise of equality and justice for all. 

And for that reason will do "Whatever it takes" to bring it about. 

The fact that it's not succeeded a anywhere it's been tried? The Left's answer: it's never been tried properly. (!)

The Soviet Union, China, East Germany, North Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Venezuela, Cuba, dozens of African countries... all these don't count as "trying properly"?? Well, I'd call BS on that. But if you still don't accept that, and you still say "it's not been tried properly" there's no falsifying your view. It is inarguable. 

In which case, the Zombies have won. At least on the Left. The Zombie idea of Socialism has won. 

What then of an idea that's a bad idea, that's been killed off but rises from the dead, like the Zombies, yet still captures the attention of all of academia and swathes of the political Left? What of that? 

Well... we might have to admit that the Zombies have won! 

And what is it when the Zombies have won?  I asked AI and the answer is: Zombie Apocalypse. That's what the Zombies winning is called. 

We've now a Zombie Apocalypse in the west. 

An old idea. A horrid idea. An idea that impoverishes humankind. Has nonetheless won. 

Well done, Left! You've won. 

The saddest thing, for me is: I've no longer any hope that in winning "the Left will find out". That the Left will see failure and impoverishment. That they will learn from that. No. The Left has learned nothing of the many previous failures. There's no reason to believe that they'll learn from yet another failure. 

Yet now, this Zombie idea, this Zombie Apocalypse, infects not a poor, agrarian post-Tsarist Russia, not a poor agrerian post-imperial China, but the United States. The Anglosphere. The West. The inheritors of the Enlightenment. The vanguard of modernity.

If I'm right that socialism is a very bad idea, that it impoverishes countries it infects, then this Zombie Apocalypse is very bad news indeed. 

Yet Paul Krugman, guest at Oxford University, did not talk about this major Zombie idea of the Left. Nor did Oxford Union ask him. 

Gloom.

ADDED: re-watching the Krugman talk at Oxford U, I notice in particular that what he does, well enough to fool his audience, is to create one Straw Man after another. And then to rebut the Straw Men. I'll leave that here for now, just to note: see if you can spot the Straw Men!

Below is an article by Brivael Le Pogam, from the French, describing how Marxism was re-purposed by the French and German Schools, and injected into western academia, for ingestion by society. Which is where we are today. It's a good article. Spot on, as far as I know the facts. 

Which are handily summarised in Christopher Rufo's book "America's Cultural Revolution". 

Xena. Koh Samui Regatta, June 2014. Thailand

Multiculturalism | Thomas Sowell

 

Why claims of Israeli genocide in Gaza are legally false

John Spencer, Chair of War Studies, Madison Policy Forum

Why claims of Israeli genocide in Gaza are legally false 

Rich Lowry: Tucker Carlson is wrong

Kata Beach, Phuket Thailand, Kings Cup 2011, Xena Crew

It’s the Ska Bar, at the southern end of Kata Beach, Phuket. Right on the water. Sit around long enough and your feet get wet from the incoming tide. 

Lovely. Friendly. Relaxed. Smiley. That’s Thailand… The Land of Smiles.

From Phuket 101

SpaceX: a “civilisational leap”.

Pretty much what I’ve been saying for years. Tesla is not “just” a car company. And SpaceX is not “just” a rocket company. 

See also my post about Baron Capital fund founder Ron Baron on the SpaceX IPO. 

According to Ron, SpaceX  will be the world’s largest and most profitable company. In ten years. Or so. He sees 10x and up to 30x growth in that time. By the way, and for comparison, Tesla did even more. It’s 350x today vs its split-adjusted IPO price.

SpaceX is the one to buy-to-keep for yourself if you’re young. Buy-to-keep for your kids and grandkids if you’re a bit older, like Ron and me…. 

ADDED: I’m Bullish Tesla and SpaceX and have been for a long time. We’re long Tesla and plan the same for SpaceX. Long, long… as in, *Never Sell*. 

But there are plenty of Bears out there. A list of some at: “Tesla Bulls and Bears”.

And.. "Why SpaceX is worth $2 Trillion".

Meantime:

Brivael Le Pogam, translated from the French: 

Ten years ago, I was listening to podcasts from a guy who wasn't half bad analyzing Tesla's growth.

His conclusion came up every time: it's insane, it doesn't hold up, you're paying fifty years of profits in advance for a car manufacturer.

His mistake wasn't in the numbers. It was in the word. He was analyzing "a car manufacturer." Tesla has never been a car manufacturer.

Today they're releasing Optimus, and the same kind of analyst will surely explain to you that it's absurd to price a humanoid robot manufacturer at that level.

We're replaying exactly the same movie with SpaceX.

The chart that's circulating right now stacks up the entire aerospace industry (GE Aerospace, RTX, Boeing, Airbus, Lockheed, Northrop, Honeywell, Safran, Rolls-Royce) to barely reach the level of a single valuation, that of SpaceX, $1,750 billion. And everyone screams bubble.

Some analysts value it at half that, with jabs like "67 times revenue" and "it would need to grow 600 times in ten years."

It's exactly the same methodological error as with Tesla. We take the current state of space, align the multiples of the present, and project onto it. We never price what's going to be built on top.

You don't price infrastructure based on its present. You price it based on the entire economies it unlocks, that no one can see when it arrives.

The railroad didn't just transport people; it gave birth to cities. The container didn't just move crates; it created globalization and trillions of dollars in value that not a single 1956 analyst had managed to plug into his model. The internet didn't just connect computers.

Access to orbit at near-zero cost is that level of disruption. And behind it, there's everything that no analyst spends a single second putting into his spreadsheet:

• Asteroid mining and lunar resource exploitation. 
• Orbital data centers, cooled for free by the void and powered by constant solar energy.
• Data centers on the Moon.
• Orbital and lunar hotels.
• Amusement parks on the Moon.
• Mass space tourism.
• Trips to Mars.
• Preparation for the terraforming of Mars.

And above all, the dozens of industries that don't exist yet and whose names we don't even know, exactly like no one knew the name "e-commerce logistics" in 1960.

That's what's not in the price.

That's what no one dares to price.

With every civilizational leap, the same profiles roll out the same rule, measure the present, and declare the future too expensive.

Every time they get it wrong, in the same direction, for the same reason.

Stop repeating the mistakes of the past.

Islamist Iran

Too bigoted?…  Pig faces to mock islam? How dare we!?

Well, the  pig-face on the other side for a change. Usually it’s used to taunt Jews.  

TBF we could add more piglets to the cartoon. Piglets like the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. The Palestinian Authority. The PLO. The Houthis. Syria. Iraq. The Muslim Brotherhood and its jungle of offshoots.

Iran: “An Islamic terrorist theocracy that worships death” | Lisa Rosen

Iran’s Supreme Leader Khomeini proudly states that never-ending bloodshed and mass executions are divine Islamic worship, the very essence of “the teaching of Islam.”

This is the open glorification of human sacrifice.

This is why the Ayatollah regime publicly executes opponents, protesters, journalists, rape victims, and gay people with medieval brutality.

This is also exactly why Iran arms and funds Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria.

The regime is not interested in “resistance.” It is building a barbaric Islamist empire that spreads its savage Sharia laws by fire and sword across the region and beyond.

The world must stop pretending Iran’s Islamic Republic is a normal country. 

It is an Islamic terrorist theocracy that worships death. It must be confronted, isolated, and ultimately defeated.

Click

To Africa! And Beyond…!

My finger paint of our route in the 2011 Cape to Cairo Classic Car trip 

African Americans regret moving to Africa.

They get ripped off, you see. They think they’re going to be treated as brothers. And sisters. Because they’re Black. But they’re treated like Americans. Because they’re American. 

And so, get ripped off by the locals.

The map above is the Classic Car trip I did with a mate and 11 other classic cars, in 2011. I remember friendliness and smiling faces, right across Africa. And also “Something small for me, please Boss”. “Something little, little”. Or they’d ask us to give them our Mighty Mustang! Big laugh. 

But we never felt threatened. Of course the locals, kids especially, are going to hassle us. We’re all whiteys. We’re Fair game.

Not so for the American Black folks. Who took up the invitation of places like Ghana and Nigeria. To come back “home”. To invest. Only to find that they too are hassled. Endlessly. And do feel threatened.

“It fucking sucks!”. Black Americans regret moving to Africa.

"SpaceX will be the largest and most profitable company in the world" | Ron Baron

Ron Baron, via Baron Capital, is the largest shareholder in SpaceX, after Elon. He owns 9% of the company, Elon has 42%. The IPO is this coming Friday, 12 June. 

Ron Baron, above, an excited and active 83, says he has "never seen" any other company with the extraordinary potential of SpaceX. Major shareholder also in Tesla. If Elon wants to merge SpaceX and Tesla, Ron will support it, as he's a supporter of Elon and not an activist investor.

He speaks so highly of Elon, he sounds like me. "The greatest entrepreneur, engineer, physicist, on the planet". And more. A big Elon fan. 

Buy and hold SpaceX. And stay in for the long ride. The ride of humanity. 

SpaceX and Tesla merger!

Ryan Shaw on the likelihood of SpaceX and Tesla merging.

SpaceX IPO is this coming Friday 12 June. Expected to be largest IPO in history. Exciting stuff.

With these companies the Musk-osphere has: Electric Vehicles (all self-driving), AI, Robots (Optimus), Battery Storage, Chip fabrication, Rockets (most in the world), Data Centres…. That’s not counting Musk’s other companies: the Boring Company and Neuralink.

SpaceX-Tesla: My candidate for the most consequential company of the next half century.

Ryan explains it all. 

0:00 Intro

1:17 Three Impossible Missions

3:53 Already One Company

5:25 The Hunger for Compute

7:39 Tesla Energy Powers It

9:36 Elon Web Services

11:16 SpaceX's Massive Lead

13:32 Data Centers in Space

15:51 The Chip Behind It All

20:57 Tesla's Data Advantage

22:37 Robotaxi & Optimus

26:33 Boring Co & Neuralink

28:51 The Merger Explained

32:49 What Could Stop It

“The Long March through the institutions”

One of the most successful and insidious political strategies of the 20th century was summed up in a single phrase: “the long march through the institutions”. Aka “Cultural Marxism”. 

The slogan was coined by German socialist student leader Rudi Dutschke in the 1960s. It deliberately referenced Mao Tse-tung’s Long March of 1934–35 and called on the radical left to abandon immediate revolution; instead, they should infiltrate and subvert the key institutions of Western society from within - government, media, schools, universities, courts and corporations - while outwardly working inside them.

Herbert Marcuse, the left’s intellectual superstar of the mid-20th century, enthusiastically endorsed this approach. He described it as “the only effective way” to bring about radical social change in advanced capitalist societies.

Indeed, the strategy worked with remarkable success – and nowhere was it more effective than in the universities. The social sciences and humanities were gradually captured by radical academics who replaced the pursuit of truth with ideological activism. Over decades, this long march transformed those institutions into ideological training grounds for successive generations of activists, journalists, teachers and civil servants.

Today the result is obvious: many of our most important cultural and educational institutions no longer serve the public; they serve a political project. The “long march” quietly replaced liberal education with ideological indoctrination and open inquiry with enforced orthodoxy. The consequences of that conquest are still unfolding today.

Creative Deduction 

A book to read on all of this: Christopher Rufo “America’s Cultural Revolution”. Aka “Cultural Marxism”. It’s been going on for decades. Hugely accounts for today’s anti-Israel hysteria. Which goes as far as anti-America. Anti the west. 

“Here we go!” : SpaceX IPO

The SpaceX IPO roadshow presentation. By CFO Bret Johnson.

One share to buy in 2026? One share to put away for your kids and grandkids? One share to be a part of the most exciting developments this century. This is it. 

“If you think SpaceX is a rocket company with an internet business you’re basically valuing Amazon as a book company in 2005”.   

Peter Diamandis.

No compromise Arabs

In 1917, the Balfour Declaration was written. The Arabs rejected it because they wanted all the land. They refused to accept any Jewish sovereignty on the land.

In 1920, the League of Nations gave Britain the official Mandate for the land that had belonged to the Ottoman Empire. The entire area was set aside as the Jewish homeland. This included what is today Israel (with Gaza, Samaria and Judea) and the whole of Jordan.

The Arabs rejected this too. 

They wanted all the land and refused to accept any Jewish sovereignty.

In 1922, the Saudi Hashemite royals and other Arabs made a secret deal with Britain behind the Jews’ backs, and without the approval of the League of Nations. 

Britain then carved out Transjordan and gave the entire area to the Arabs. This was 77% of the total land that had been promised as the Jewish homeland.

The Arabs happily accepted and took Transjordan, but they still rejected the remaining 23% for the Jews. They refused to accept any Jewish sovereignty on the land.

Now ask yourself this question:

If the Arabs were already given 77% of the land that was meant for the Jewish state, why are we still talking about carving up the last 23% and giving them even more?

When you see the truth, you understand who the real problem is, and why we will fight to keep the little land we have left.

Gabrielle. Nim Shue Wan beach. Discovery Bay. Hong Kong. 15 August 2014

I built this boat in our backyard, Hong Kong. Blogged here
The masts in background are the replica The Bounty

Refugee crises since 1900

I asked Grok for a list of world refugee crises since 1900. 

It came up with 54 countries that have suffered refugee crises since the first one, in Armenia, in 1915.

All but one are resolved. The one not resolved is highlighted below: Palestine. Just one. Out of 54. The Palestinians. 

The Palestinian refugee crisis remains unresolved because we let it. It was we, the west and the United Nations, that allowed this. The Arabs in the Levant (i.e.”Palestinians”) made maximalist demands, with maximum denial of compromise. And we accommodated them. We went along with it.

We, the United Nations, allowed:

1.  UNWRA: the only U.N. refugee body specifically for one people, the Palestinians. All the rest are handled by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.

2.  We allowed 1948 refugees to pass on their refugee status to their descendants. No other group of refugees, not a single one of the other 53, is allowed to do this. Thus the number of Palestinian refugees has increased from 700,000 to well over 2 million today. All looked after by UNWRA.

3.  We allowed the surrounding Arab states, those surrounding Israel, to refuse to accept or give citizenship to fellow Arab refugees from the 1948 Israel-Palestine war. 

4. We allowed UNWRA to become a creature of Hamas. It runs Hamas schools that are violently anti-Jew. It helps and covers for Hamas theft of food and foreign aid. So much that Hamas leaders are billionaires living in Qatar. UNWRA even had staff taking part in the October 7th killings, rapes,looting and kidnapping. 

An alternative history is this: the Palestinian refugees handled in the same way as all the others refugee groups in the last century. We should jabs said “NO” to the maximalist Arab demands. No, to all of the above accommodations. 

We would not now be facing the calls to “globalise the intifada”, to “kill all Jews”, to “destroy Israel”

In this alternative history, everyone would be better off. Economically and politically. Also mentally. This region could be a hub of innovation and growth. With peace. And a logical, realistic, handling of the “Palestinian Refugee Question”.

Grok:

Here is the list of 54, sorted alphabetically, with the earliest major refugee crisis for each group (focusing on well-documented, large-scale events):

•  Afghans: 1979–1980 (Soviet invasion)

•  Albanians: 1990s (post-communism/Kosovo conflicts)

•  Armenians: 1915 (Armenian Genocide)

•  Azerbaijanis: 1988–1990s (Nagorno-Karabakh conflict)

•  Bangladeshis: 1971 (Bangladesh Liberation War)

•  Bosniaks: 1992 (Bosnian War)

•  Burmese (Myanmar): 1962–1980s (military coups/ethnic conflicts)

•  Burmese Chin/Karen: 1980s–1990s (ethnic insurgencies)

•  Cambodians: 1975 (Khmer Rouge takeover)

•  Central Africans: 1990s–2000s (civil wars)

•  Chechens: 1994 (First Chechen War)

•  Chinese: 1949 (Chinese Communist Revolution) / earlier waves in 1930s–40s

•  Colombians: 1980s–1990s (drug war/insurgencies)

•  Congolese (DRC): 1960s (post-independence conflicts) / major in 1990s

•  Cubans: 1959–1960 (Cuban Revolution)

•  Czechs/Slovaks: 1938–1939 or 1968 (Prague Spring)

•  Eritreans: 1961 (war for independence from Ethiopia)

•  Ethiopians: 1970s (Red Terror / Ogaden War)

•  Georgians: 1990s (post-Soviet conflicts)

•  Germans (post-WWII): 1944–1947 (expulsions from Eastern Europe)

•  Guatemalans: 1960s–1980s (civil war)

•  Haitians: 1950s–1960s (Duvalier dictatorship) / major in 1990s

•  Hungarians: 1956 (Hungarian Revolution)

•  Indians: 1947 (Partition of India)

•  Iraqis: 1980s (Iran-Iraq War / Anfal campaign) or 1991

•  Kazakhs: 1920s–1930s (Soviet collectivization/famine)

•  Kosovars: 1998–1999 (Kosovo War)

•  Libyans: 2011 (Libyan Civil War)

•  Malians: 2012 (Tuareg rebellion / Islamist insurgency)

•  Nicaraguans: 1970s–1980s (Sandinista Revolution / Contra War)

•  Nigerians (Boko Haram affected): 2009–2010s

•  North Koreans: 1950–1953 (Korean War)

•  Pakistanis: 1947 (Partition of India)

•  Palestinians: 1948 (Arab-Israeli War)

•  Poles: 1939 (WWII invasion) or earlier partitions

•  Romanians: 1940s–1950s or 1989

•  Rohingya (Myanmar): 1978 or 1990s (major 2017)

•  Russians: 1917–1922 (Russian Revolution & Civil War)

•  Rwandans (historical): 1959–1961 or 1994 (Genocide)

•  Salvadorans: 1970s–1980s (Salvadoran Civil War)

•  Serbs/Croats (Yugoslav wars): 1991–1995

•  Somalis: 1970s–1980s or 1991 (civil war)

•  South Sudanese: 1955 or 1983 (civil wars) / 2013

•  Sri Lankan Tamils: 1983 (start of civil war)

•  Sri Lankans (beyond Tamils): 1980s

•  Sudanese: 1955 or 1983 (civil wars)

•  Syrians: 2011 (Syrian Civil War)

•  Tibetans: 1959 (Chinese annexation / uprising)

•  Ukrainians: 1930s (Holodomor) or 1940s / 2022

•  Uyghurs: 1930s or 1950s / major 2010s

•  Venezuelans: 2014–2015 (economic/political collapse)

•  Vietnamese (boat people): 1975 (Fall of Saigon)

•  Yemenis: 1960s or 2014–2015 (civil war)

Frangipani Fido

Our Byron. In Siena Park

The Chinese for Frangipani is 鸡蛋花, Ji Dan Hua = Egg Flower.  Byron has two on his head, sunny side up…

Starmer bans Israel critics. Bad move | Shabbos Kestenbaum

I’ve posted Shabbos Kestenbaum before. He debates well. My posts on him here. 

He’s discussing the issue of the U.K. government banning the entry to the U.K. of his debate partners Cenk Uygur and his silly champagne-communist nephew Hasan Piker.

Of course you can criticise the Israeli government. Israelis do it more than anyone.

But also: Jews have been in this region for 3,000 years. Of course they are connected to the land. 

Judea = Jews.

To claim that they are not part of the land is crazy and simply untrue. No. 1 historical inaccuracy.

Still Shabbos wanted to debate Cenk and Hasan. He’s against the ban. As am I.  That they were banned by the U.K. government is crazy. 

The ban was not because Israel demanded it, as the Jew-obsessed Cenk and his silly nephew believe. It’s because P.M. Keir Starmer’s Britain is increasingly censorious. Keir Starmer himself is increasing censorious. Proudly so.

Rich Lowry makes the same points: “Are the Jews to Blame for Cenk Uygur and Hasan Piker Getting Banned from the U.K.?”

The Ugly Truth about Palestine

I've followed Einat Wilf for some time. (My posts about her here)

What I didn't know, till the vid above, is that she made the same mental journey in life as I have: moving from the crazy left to.... Not the Left.

If you can hack it, she goes into detail about the Israel-Palestine issue, its history, its current affair; its "then", its "now". From the POV of an insider, as she was to the Oslo Accords process, with Yasser Arafat, Bill Clinton, and Yitzhak Rabin in 1993. 

About which, by the way, Bill Clinton felt betrayed by Arafat and has talked about his bitterness at the betrayal. 

The betrayal served to wake Clinton up to the reality that the Arabs of the Levant (aka the "Palestinians") do not want any deal, any "land for peace", any "Two State solution", any "recognition". No, what they want, what their dream is: death to Israel and death to all Jews. 

That’s the truth. And of course it’s ugly. That your neighbour wants you dead. No ifs, no buts. No negotiations. Wants you dead. 

Bill Clinton: "They don't want a State. They want dead jews". 

It was never about Israel

Fast and True. Ben Shapiro. 

It was never about Israel. It was and is about hating America. Because... well, because "the Long March through the institutions". By European neo-Marxism. Of the Frankfurt School, of Marcuse, of Foucault, of Gramsci.

Neo Marxism. Cultural Marxism. Which you can read all about in Christopher Rufo’s “America’s Cultural Revolution”. 

Ukraine war update

Who’d a thunk?

February 2022 Russia attacked Ukraine. World Experts gave it a few weeks before Russia overran the country and occupied Kiev. 

Not so fast, comrade! Said the Ukrainians. Now they’re world experts on drone warfare. In asymmetrical warfare. In how to pound the Russkies. In giving it to the Man….

Australia would do well to buy Ukrainian weapons off the shelf. Instead of reinventing the wheel. Especially buying from among their many and varied drones. Battle tested and proven. All available like something on Amazon. We seem set to invent our own at a cost of $20 million each. Another submarine-type debacle in the making. Sigh…

The Sun is clearly pro Kiev. Very well. So is Europe. And the United States. And Australia. And bien pensants everywhere. Fact remains: they do good and informative updates on the war. 

As we watch. 

AsUkraine takes back land from Russian occupiers. As it threatens to recapture Crimea! 

The ENTIRE history of Islam…

The ENTIRE history of Islam…in 68 minutes.

Dr William Federer knows how Islam and describes it well in this breezy lecture, above. 

He gets a bit Biblical at times and I could do without that. But I understand it and I’m fine with it. 

If Christianity was ever Martial, or if it ever was aggressively proselytising, it surely is not now. There’s just one Martial faith, just one aggressively proselytising religion in the world today, and that’s Dr Federer’s  topic: Islam. The history of.

In 68 minutes.

I have no problem with Islam…

 I have no problem with Islam…

Really! 

Banging on here for 17 years about Islam. But I have no problem with it?!

Well… I’m just like Imtiaz Mahmood: 

I have no problem with Islam. 

I’m just against beheading, stoning, marrying little girls, sexual slavery, taqiyya, slave trading, rape, forced conversions, jihad, burqa, attacking other religions, child abuse, women abuse, animal abuse, multiple wives, murder, Sharia, terrorism, brainwashing, intolerance, greed, anti-science, torture, illiteracy, gluttony, genital mutilation, inbreeding. 

Does that make me Islamophobic?  

Click

"Dear Grok: what is likelihood of a Crash?”

 "Dear Grok: Should we shift to Cash or stay Long equities?”

Grok’s answer:

Grok disclaimer: I’m not a financial advisor, and this is not personalized advice.

Assume: holding equity exposure concentrated in major technology and growth stocks, mainly U.S. (heavy with “Top 7”) plus stable rental properties. Equity portion carries notable concentration and valuation risks.

Market Context

US equities sit at historically high valuations. The Shiller CAPE ratio is currently around 39–41 (well above the long-term average of ~17), and the Buffett Indicator (market cap to GDP) exceeds 220%. This reflects strong concentration in a handful of large-cap names, which has driven recent gains but increases vulnerability to sentiment shifts, earnings disappointments, or external shocks. heygotrade.com 

Likelihood of a crash (20%+ decline): Elevated valuations and concentration raise risks above historical averages, but no consensus on an imminent severe event. Recession odds in some models sit around 30–50%, with added geopolitical and policy uncertainties. Milder corrections (10–20%) are more common than deep crashes. Timing remains unpredictable—markets can stay elevated longer than expected. 

Odds of 2008-level crash: 10-15%. US Bank 

Potential depth: Historical bear markets average ~35% peak-to-trough, lasting about a year, with recoveries in 1–4 years. Severe cases (e.g., 2000 or 2008) were deeper and longer, especially if tied to recessions. Your tech-heavy holdings could amplify moves.

Hong Kong Property

H.K. rental apartments provide a strong diversifier. The HK residential market is in recovery, with prices rising in 2025–2026 supported by lower rates, demand, and limited supply in key segments. Rents remain robust, offering income stability less correlated with US equities. J.P. Morgan.

Strategy Recommendation

Holding through volatility has historically outperformed frequent attempts to time the market for long-term investors. Perfectly exiting to cash, waiting for a bottom, and re-entering is extremely difficult and often misses strong rebounds while incurring costs and inflation drag.

Given reasonable wealth level and property income, a downturn can be weathered without forced sales. Rebalance rather than a full shift to cash: trim concentrated winners to broaden exposure (e.g., more diversified indices, international, or value-oriented holdings). Maintain some liquidity for opportunities. Focus on risk management, income, and long-term growth over precise timing.

Markets are forward-looking and resilient, but diversification helps. Consult licensed professionals for your specific tax, regulatory, and estate situation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 

====================

Shorter Grok: 

If you’ve got investments, don’t need the cash, stay as you are. HOLD. 

Likelihood of 2008-level crash : ~10%.

Keep an eye on big opportunities in any crash.

On average, a shift to cash in similar circumstances to those today, does worse than Hold. On Average.