The case for nuclear

Da Ya Bay Nuclear power station, next to Hong Kong
where we get one-third of our electricity

I did an earlier "The Case for Nuclear", for a Greenie friend who had asked me to do it, then refused to read it. Because... well... because. I guess, because she didn't want to find that there were some of her priors that were wrong and she didn't want that. She didn't want to be wrong, which would challenge her virtue, so best not to learn about the facts. Horrid things, facts. 

Anyhoo, here's an update on that. A revised and updated version. Of, now "The Best Case for Nuclear". Because it's going to be an issue in the forthcoming Australian federal elections.Where the national broadcaster, the ABC and the various Greenie groups are all going to be against Nuclear. Because.... well.... because....Science. Not.

Nuclear power has a compelling case as one of the most efficient, reliable, and environmentally friendly energy sources available. When viewed through its strongest attributes—reliability, safety, low carbon emissions, and additional benefits like energy density and economic potential—it stands out as a cornerstone for a sustainable energy future. Here’s the most positive case for nuclear power:

1. Exceptional Reliability

• High Capacity Factor: Nuclear plants operate at a capacity factor of 90–95%, meaning they generate power nearly continuously, far surpassing solar (25%) and wind (35–45%). They provide baseload power—consistent, 24/7 electricity—unaffected by weather or time of day, unlike renewables.
• Longevity: Modern reactors are designed to operate for 60–80 years with proper maintenance and upgrades, offering decades of stable energy output. For example, the U.S. fleet averages over 40 years old yet still delivers ~20% of the nation’s electricity.

2. Unmatched Safety Record

• Low Death Rate: At 0.04 deaths per TWh, nuclear is among the safest energy sources, outperforming solar (0.44), wind (0.15), and coal (25–161). Most deaths stem from historical mining or rare accidents, not ongoing operations.
• Modern Safety: Post-Chernobyl and Fukushima, reactor designs (e.g., Generation III+ like the AP1000) include passive safety systems that shut down automatically without human intervention or external power. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and Generation IV designs (e.g., molten salt reactors) promise even greater safety with meltdown-resistant features.
• Rare Catastrophes: Only three major accidents (Chernobyl, Fukushima, Three Mile Island) have occurred in over 18,500 reactor-years of operation globally. Modern regulations and technology make such events vanishingly unlikely today.

3. Near-Zero Carbon Emissions

• Lifecycle Emissions: Nuclear power emits 12 grams of CO2 per kilowatt-hour (gCO2/kWh) over its lifecycle (mining, construction, operation), comparable to wind (11 gCO2/kWh) and far below solar (41), natural gas (490), and coal (820), per IPCC data. It’s effectively carbon-neutral during operation.
• Climate Solution: Nuclear provides massive energy output without greenhouse gases, making it a linchpin for decarbonization. France, for instance, cut its power sector emissions by 80% in two decades by shifting to 70% nuclear, achieving one of the cleanest grids in Europe.

4. Incredible Energy Density

• Fuel Efficiency: One uranium fuel pellet (the size of a fingertip) produces energy equivalent to 17,000 cubic feet of natural gas, 1 ton of coal, or 149 gallons of oil. A single reactor can power a city of 1 million people with a tiny fuel footprint.
• Land Use: Nuclear plants require minimal land—about 1 square mile per gigawatt, versus 50–75 square miles for equivalent wind or solar farms. This preserves ecosystems and reduces habitat disruption.

5. Waste Management Advantages

• Small Waste Volume: Nuclear generates 27 tons of high-level waste per gigawatt-year, a tiny fraction compared to millions of tons of CO2 or ash from fossil fuels. All U.S. spent fuel since the 1950s fits in an area the size of a football field, 10 yards deep.
• Recycling Potential: Technologies like fast breeder reactors or pyroprocessing can recycle spent fuel, reducing waste by up to 90% and extracting more energy. France already reprocesses fuel, cutting waste significantly.
• Safe Storage: Dry cask storage keeps waste secure for decades, and geological repositories (e.g., Finland’s Onkalo) offer permanent, safe disposal with no environmental impact.

6. Economic and Societal Benefits

• Job Creation: Nuclear plants create high-skilled, long-term jobs—about 500–800 jobs per reactor during operation, plus thousands during construction. These are stable, well-paid positions compared to intermittent renewable projects.
• Energy Independence: Countries with domestic uranium (e.g., Canada, Australia) or enrichment capabilities reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels, enhancing security.
• Cost-Effectiveness Over Time: Though upfront costs are high ($6–12 billion per plant), nuclear’s levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is competitive—$60–80/MWh—with a lifespan far exceeding wind or solar installations, which need replacement every 20–30 years.

7. Technological Innovation

• Next-Generation Designs: SMRs (e.g., NuScale) are smaller, cheaper, and deployable in remote areas, while fusion research (e.g., ITER) promises unlimited, waste-free energy. Thorium reactors offer abundant fuel and reduced proliferation risks.
• Beyond Electricity: Nuclear can produce hydrogen for clean fuels, desalinate water, or power industrial heat processes, amplifying its decarbonization potential.

8. Proven Track Record

• Global Success: Nuclear powers 10% of the world’s electricity across 32 countries, with nations like France (70%), Sweden (30%), and Ontario, Canada (60%) showcasing its ability to dominate clean energy grids.
• Historical Impact: Since the 1970s, nuclear has avoided 64 gigatons of CO2 emissions globally (IEA estimate), equivalent to removing all cars from the planet for over a decade.

The Positive Vision

Imagine a world where nuclear power scales up with SMRs dotting landscapes, delivering reliable, clean energy to cities and rural areas alike. Carbon emissions plummet, air pollution fades, and energy poverty shrinks—all while preserving nature with minimal land use. Disasters become a relic of the past with foolproof designs, and waste is managed or recycled into oblivion. Nuclear could be the backbone of a grid that pairs with renewables, smoothing their intermittency with unwavering output, driving humanity toward a zero-carbon, energy-abundant future.