Monday 24 May 2021

"Covid lab-leak hypothesis just got a big credibility boost"

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Another fascinating show from Bret and Heather's Darkhorse podcast. From the show notes

In this 80th in a series of live discussions with Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying (both PhDs in Biology), we discuss the state of the world through an evolutionary lens. In this episode, we once again discuss the “lab leak” hypothesis for the origins of SARS-CoV2, as this week a letter published in Science has helped it gain yet more credibility in mainstream scientific circles. We then discuss ivermectin, a decades-old drug with a well-established history of efficacy against many human pathogens. What is its mechanism of action? What do Covid case rates in Africa, against a background of on-going prophylactic use of ivermectin for other conditions, suggest about its possible efficacy against Covid? Is it safe for children? Also, what does the FDA require of a new drug or treatment to grant Emergency Use Authorization? Does Merck have an opinion on the matter? How about the media?

For those interested in delving as deep as Bret and Heather have gone, there are the links to the Science in the notes. 

I've written many times about the "lab-leak hypothesis", which remains that: a valid hypothesis until it is falsified. The big issue they're pointing to in this podcast is the eminence of the scientists asking for more investigation into the lab-leak hypothesis. "More investigation” should probably be replaced with "some investigation”, as so far pretty much no investigation at all has been done.

Knowing if the coronavirus was or was not a result of a lab leak is important: 

If it was, it means the "gain of function" research being done at the Wuhan Institute of Virology ought be stopped. 

If it was not, then the sort of research being done at the WIV needs to be ramped up. 

How we handle the next viral pandemic depends on this. "Denial" is not the same as "debunk" -- as some seem to think when they say it's a conspiracy theory with no merit because it's been "debunked" (because China denied it). It has most certainly not been debunked; indeed is gaining scientific currency. I think the lab leak deniers push this line because it was Trump who first suggested it and, of course, Orange Man Bad. And then the media just went along. It was "debunked" and if you believed it, you were a conspiracy theorist. That stance itself has now been dealt a blow, because....

ADDED: "Covid lab-leak hypothesis just got a big credibility boost", New York Magazine

While there are still some dopey articles that think it’s a good idea to do science by Vox Pop. It is utterly irrelevant what the public “thinks” may be the origin of the virus, especially since, to the extent they’ve been told anything, it’s that it didn’t come from a lab leak. (Yet, even then less than half think it wasn’t a lab leak, despite all that volume of media coverage attempting to discredit it)