Sunday 15 August 2021

The ABCs of Afghanistan: Abandonment, Betrayal, Calamity

BBC screenshot: speed of Taliban reaching Kabul is breathtaking 
Joe Biden has "been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades." So said Robert Gates, Defence Secretary under President Obama. Asked about that assessment during the 2020 campaign, he said he sticks by it.

And now Biden is getting it wrong again. Abandoning Afghanistan. Betraying its people. Enabling the Calamity of the Taliban theocratic-fascist state.

I was shocked when he said US troops would be out by 911. As if that special date somehow signified “Mission Accomplished “. But it’s not; it’s a calamity. So here is the new ABC of Afghanistan— Abandonment, Betrayal and Calamity.

Biden said US can’t stay there forever. Maybe not, but to leave so chaotically? 

When people ask what’s the result of twenty years of war, well there’s this: for some years there was a glimpse of what a society could and should be. Women and girls got rights. Young women, and young men took new freedoms and opportunities and made something of them. That’s not me saying that. It’s Afghanis and people like Yalda Hakim, anchor on BBC, Australian of Afghani heritage and has been to Afghanistan  many times including just recently. She’s had on the show Afghanistan war veterans of all political persuasions. Who all support her. So there’s all of that, those achievements — often ignored wilfully and not, or forgotten — and now endangered. 

What was the use of the remaining troops on the ground? The answer comes now: to keep the Taliban at bay. Who are now in Kabul. It’s over. And for the sake of a few thousand troops.

As I sit here watching BBC, this anchor. Yalda Hakim, just back from Afghanistan, is registering the shock of Afghanis and Brits that served there. 

Over and over the words: “abandonment” and “betrayal”. 

Remember: the US had only 8,500 troops there.. [correction: just 2500]. For the US that’s a tiny commitment. They still have troops in Korea and Germany 60-70 years after those wars,  for goodness sake!

The UK did not need to follow the US to abandon our Afghan allies. But they did. Boris did. They are being despised by ex ambassador to Kabul, ex servicemen who served there, on both sides of the aisle. 

This is a disaster. Which is down to Biden and Boris. 

I don’t know what Australia is doing,  it last I looked the government was dragging its heels on giving refugee status to ex interpreters etc who helped us. [ADDED: ScoMo says we can’t help all who helped us. Shame on us]

By the way I’d meant to note a terrific one hour special on BBC just the other day by Yalda Hakim. She’s an Aussie from Afghanistan having been grated asylum with her parents at age three. She speaks warmly of progress that had been made in these past two decades. That will be demolished by the Taliban. 

Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaneen is speaking to Yalda saying girls will still be allowed to go to school. But we know there’s at least two main factions within the Taliban, the political (Shaheen’s) and the military. The military are already stopping women going to university in Herat. Women is asking good hard questions of Shaheen. Shaheen denies the reports. Those who expect Taliban to power share with tolerance are going to be disappointed. Remember Shaheen is speaking from Doha and is the most west-friendly face of the Taliban. 

ADDED: as Yalda Hakim speaks to Shaheen, BBC chyrons Taliban (ie Shaheen) says “women won’t be beaten for leaving home alone” “women allowed to leave home alone” “woman can go to university” “women should feel safe” “lives people in Kabul are safe” “there will be no revenge” “we hope for a new chapter of peace” “there will be a free media” “stonings and amputations for the courts” “there will be no revenge” “we seek inclusive government “

BBC doing Taliban propaganda for them!

No mention of what Shaheen said about Sharia law. To be strictly implemented. You didn’t have to read too much between the lines to see that it’s going to be 1990s redux.

Sir Nick Kay, ex UK Ambassador for Afghanistan: “I hang my head in shame”

ADDED: Even CNN is “shocked” not just the speed of Kabul falling, but that Biden said just last week that the Taliban would not take over the whole country, ever, let alone in a matter of days.

CNN wonder is Biden cherry-picking the intel or ignoring the intel. For CNN to be shocked at Biden’s bad call, they had ignored Robert Gates’ spot-on assessment in the headline above. CNN are also railing against the “abandonment” and “betrayal”. Like they’re embarrassed obo the US. As they should be.

Turns out, by the way, that the US didn’t have even 8,500 troops but only 2,500. But just this small contingent was enough to keep the Taliban at bay. Had done so for a decade. Until they cut and ran. Because Joe. And the intel was way wrong on how quickly Taliban would take over. 

I’m watching CNN film of helicopters over Kabul, ferrying the US diplomats to the airport. It’s hard not to recall Saigon 1975 (and sailing mate here who was rescued as an abandoned mixed race baby (Afro-Vietnamese) from the oncoming Vietcong. Despite the obvious parallels Secretary of State Antony Blinken now on CNN saying essentially, "job done" We got rid of the terrorist threat, wash hands now, job done. Shame, shame, shame. 

Jake Tapper is giving Blinken a bit of a hard time. Quoting Crocker the ex US ambassador to Afghanistan saying Biden was either wilfully ignorant or simply didn’t care. Good to see them putting that heat on. The way the withdrawal was done was shockingly bad, says CNN. True, dat.

ADDED: CNN calls this withdrawal a “Trump-Biden Calamity”. Which is fair in the sense that there was a pin agreement between parties to have a power sharing arrangement in place by May this year. That didn’t happen. What Trump may have done as a result is pure counter-factual. What we do know is that the military did not want a precipitous withdrawal, which pleas Biden ignored. 

Rep Michael McCaul (R) ranking member FAC, being interviewed by Jake Tapper. Says Blinken and co ignored intel that what would happen is exactly what has happened. Says China will recognise Taliban to get access to rare earths. Amazing: Jake gives McCaul full time and uninterrupted to say his piece. And even see,s that Jake agrees with him. McCaul makes point that the Trump-Pompeo promoted agreement on Afghanistan was “conditions based” and none of the conditions was met. Hence “Biden owns this”. It was his decision. Taliban can now say they defeated the Soviet Union and the United States. 

Yalda Hakim last night anchoring BBC coverage of the Taliban
entering Kabul. She seemed visibly shaken. She'd just done a
very good 1hr special on Afghanistan having recently returned
from a visit to the country

ADDED 16 Aug]: Commentators saying Biden spent his first 100 days undoing all of Trump's executive orders, except this one on leaving Afghanistan. OTOH: Trump was responsible for the negotiations with the Taliban which excluded the Afghan government. That was a catastrophic error of judgement according to commenters. Agreed. Why leave out of negotiations your main ally?? 

ADDED: Trump also under fire for having released Taliban prisoners without condition, during those negotiations. So: Afghan Army sees their main ally leaving and decides the game is not worth the candle, so lay down arms when the Taliban turns up. Pragmatic.