Thursday, 22 January 2026

United States Allies remain United States Allies....

China aside, all other countries increased their 
holdings of US Treasuries in 2025
President Trump is the the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he apparently (we don't have details), ended up with some sort of deal agreed with NATO over US involvement in Greenland. 

This is -- of course!  -- being mocked on the likes of CNN. Whose latest go-to talking point is that "Allies are deserting the US, and making up with China". [E.G.]

Do tell. 

One of the best ways to measure just how much countries trust the United States, how much they trust any given administration, or any given set of economic circumstances in the United States, is how much money they have invested in US Treasuries. Since I learned to walk it's been one of the most quoted stats by the cognoscenti. "How are Treasuries doing?"

"Treasuries" just being the American name for US Government Bonds issued by the Treasury Department. Where they borrow your money, promise to pay you a certain amount of interest (the "Coupon") and to give you your Principal back at the end of the term. 

If the US economy is not trusted, countries will pull their money out of US Treasuries. If they don't like an administration, or how it's handling the economy, they'll pull money out of Treasuries. If countries Sell Treasuries, their price will go down, and the interest rate on the basis of that price will go up (because the Coupon remains the same)*. Hence the importance of the trend of Treasuries. They affect the overall creditworthiness of the US and of its short and long-term interest rates. 

So, now back to the reality of what the likes of CNN and other Trump-haters are saying. Which, to repeat, is along the lines of: "American allies hate what Trump is doing, they don't like his grab for Greenland, and are going to look elsewhere, like to China, for support and economic engagement. Meantime they're dumping their Treasuries, which will put upward pressure on US interest rates."

Well... no. 

The Treasuries tell a different story.

 U.S. Treasury International Capital (TIC) site (of the US Treasury Department) has a Table of the monthly Treasury holdings by country. I've taken out some of the main players and summarise them below to 2025, up to the latest, which is to end November 2025: 

Key points I notice: 

1. All countries except one, have increased their holdings of US Treasuries in the last year. On average by nearly 10%. 

2.  China is that one country that has reduced its holdings in the same period, by 10%. 

3. Overall, countries, including all US Allies, have increased their holdings, by a total of $US 738 Billion. 

4. Japan and the United Kingdom have always been, and remain, the largest holders of US Treasuries. All US allies have substantial holdings of Treasuries. 

5. China has not just recently started to reduce its US Treasuries holdings. It has done so since it reached its highest holdings in 2013, in the middle of the Obama presidency:

The only time China holdings went up since 2013
was during the Trump first administration

China's reduction of US Treasuries beginning in 2013 was signalled a the time. I remember it. It correlates closely with the arrival of Xi Jinping to the leadership in 2012. Xi is temperamentally anti-west (See "Document 9"), pro China's self-reliance, pro finding investments for its massive surpluses other than buying the "World's safest investment", US Treasury Bonds. 

In short, there's no evidence, from the holdings of US Treasuries, that US allies are upset by Trump's agressive moves like his one on Greenland. 

And the China divestment has been going on for over a decade.
 
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The inverse relationship between Bond Prices and Interest Rates: 

One of the first things I learned in Economics 101, in 1969. 

When Bond prices go up, interest rates go down.
When Bond prices go down, interest rates go up. 

EG: There's a Bond issued with a price of $100 and a Coupon of 5%. That means you pay $100 for the Bond and you get paid $5 every year. i.e. 5%.

If the price of the Bond goes down in the secondary market, to, say, $90, the Coupon remains 5% (it never changes), and so the buyer of that Bond, paying just $90, would still get the $5 every year for which he has paid only $90.  $5 divided by $90 = 0.0556, or 5.56%