I've known Andy Xie since his days with the International Monetary Fund and my days as a diplomat in the Australian government.
He's famous — or infamous, if you will — as a contrarian and for having called all the bubbles of recent decades.
He's a sound commentator and always worth a read.
We know the Chinese government read him. And don't really like him for his criticism of them. That dislike aside, I doubt their ingrained nationalism and bull-headedness would allow them to follow his practical advice: reform not war. Jaw jaw not war war.
If that's the case we better buckle up. It'll be rough including for us here in Hong Kong.
And if that's the case what should one do? The ubercautious would shift to the troubled-time favourites: cash and precious metals.
Still it's hard to be in cash or gold. It just feels too..... cautious.
Real estate and equities — especially US equities for us here in HK — still feels to be the go. We just have to ride it out...
Andy's key point is summarised in his opening para in today's South China Morning Post:
China's objective must be to avoid, not win, a trade war with the United States. Winning, even if it's possible, would spell catastrophe for China's economic development. Negotiating, not counter-punching, should be China's principal strategy
And comment from a knowledgeable observer:
Hi:
I agree with Andy Xie in the main. China HAS to reform the SOEs and the ‘debt bomb’ as he expresses it. The issue however is that the SOEs and the cadres within them as a group IS the communist party.
(Refer to my Op-Ed in the Boston Globe a few years ago )
But removing the privileges will not go down well. That is the conundrum Xi Jingping faces. And the critical question is whether he has the guts to address this. Even if he had the guts, he may feel deep down that thoroughly reforming the SOEs may eviscerate whatever is left of socialism, where his mind may still be mired.
It is a hell of a fix he is in. If he does nothing, I think the probability of a collapse, first economically and then socially is high. If he acts, he and the party may ultimately loose control – perhaps violently.
So when T says that the US holds all the cards in the current trade fight, he is right.
On the personal investing front I am only about 20% in the stock market. Your situation is special being in HK. If China goes pear-shaped HK would be in dire straits so the calculation would be the careful assessment of that probability and monitoring signals of same. You can always retreat to the safety of Oz. 😊
All the best, 
