There’s much huffing and puffing on the Remainer side. If Britain “crashes out”, at the very best we simply don’t know what will happen, but likely it will be terrible, major chaos in the economy, major problems in every area of life: aviation, shipping, shopping, fishing....
But there’s never any detail and it’s all “could be”, “might be” and “calamity”.
Never have I seen such Henny Pennies.
Here I look at some of the likely outcomes, based on a summary of pros and cons, courtesy iNews, which is, far as I can see, an anti-Brexit site (as are all good Lefties and les bien pensants).
Trade.
“Doom and gloom”?
No...
The EU charges 4% on average to non-EU members. That’s already balanced by the over 4% devaluation in the GB pound. And in any case is minimal. Minimal.
The iNews article says that the price of goods in the UK will rise, but that’s only if the UK decides to apply the same level of average tariff as the EU does, and it doesn’t have to do this. in any case, around 70% of EU imports are at zero or reduced tariff, as noted above, so the impacts will be minimal. Minimal. Not “doom”. Not “gloom”. Trivial.
People:
“The UK would be free to set its own controls”. Well, good, then. As to Europeans in the UK, Boris has already said that they could stay. Worst case: nasty Europeans don’t reciprocate. By why would they not, other than to be vengeful? Also: more Europeans in UK than UK people in Europe, so there’s leverage should the UK need to use it.
Laws:
"Relevant EU laws would be transferred over so there would be no black holes in Britain’s lawbook.
Britain would no longer have to adhere to the rulings of the European Court of Justice ....”
So, again, good then. I recall a number of cases where the UK had decided to deport a criminal or islamist, and the EU courts had overturned the UK decisions. That insult will be history.
Money:
“The Government would not have to pay the Annual £13 billion to the EU budget”. Again, good, then. “However, Britain would lose out on some EU subsidies” of about £ 3 billion. Well, so what? If all made up by the UK government, they’re still £10 billion in front.
The Irish Border.
Well, I’m not going to get into this, save to say if it turns out that Northern Ireland decides to leave the UK and join the Republic, well good on them. And I say that as one with way back Irish connections to County Antrim, in Northern Ireland, which I’m just about to visit for the first time. Does anyone really think that would be such a bad thing? A united Ireland? Well, I guess I’ll find out.
Anyhoo, the above is my comments drawing on a site that’s clearly anti-Brexit. And it doesn’t really seem so bad at all, does it?
Compared with the cleanness of getting out in one go. Done and dusted. Be done with it. No need to wait 21 months of “transition period” that would happen with a Brexit with a deal.
So, get on with it Boris! No Deal, is a good Deal!
LATER: [Just hearing the BBC quote the Confederation of British Industry apparently saying that everyone, every shopper will be affected. Again, so what? What sort of effect? Much or most is likely to be trivial.]
Related: No deal Brexit would not be a disaster. Spectator, July 2019
But there’s never any detail and it’s all “could be”, “might be” and “calamity”.
Never have I seen such Henny Pennies.
Here I look at some of the likely outcomes, based on a summary of pros and cons, courtesy iNews, which is, far as I can see, an anti-Brexit site (as are all good Lefties and les bien pensants).
Trade.
“Doom and gloom”?
No...
The EU charges 4% on average to non-EU members. That’s already balanced by the over 4% devaluation in the GB pound. And in any case is minimal. Minimal.
 |
| From Eurostat, using World Bank figures |
The iNews article says that the price of goods in the UK will rise, but that’s only if the UK decides to apply the same level of average tariff as the EU does, and it doesn’t have to do this. in any case, around 70% of EU imports are at zero or reduced tariff, as noted above, so the impacts will be minimal. Minimal. Not “doom”. Not “gloom”. Trivial.
People:
“The UK would be free to set its own controls”. Well, good, then. As to Europeans in the UK, Boris has already said that they could stay. Worst case: nasty Europeans don’t reciprocate. By why would they not, other than to be vengeful? Also: more Europeans in UK than UK people in Europe, so there’s leverage should the UK need to use it.
Laws:
"Relevant EU laws would be transferred over so there would be no black holes in Britain’s lawbook.
Britain would no longer have to adhere to the rulings of the European Court of Justice ....”
So, again, good then. I recall a number of cases where the UK had decided to deport a criminal or islamist, and the EU courts had overturned the UK decisions. That insult will be history.
Money:
“The Government would not have to pay the Annual £13 billion to the EU budget”. Again, good, then. “However, Britain would lose out on some EU subsidies” of about £ 3 billion. Well, so what? If all made up by the UK government, they’re still £10 billion in front.
The Irish Border.
Well, I’m not going to get into this, save to say if it turns out that Northern Ireland decides to leave the UK and join the Republic, well good on them. And I say that as one with way back Irish connections to County Antrim, in Northern Ireland, which I’m just about to visit for the first time. Does anyone really think that would be such a bad thing? A united Ireland? Well, I guess I’ll find out.
Anyhoo, the above is my comments drawing on a site that’s clearly anti-Brexit. And it doesn’t really seem so bad at all, does it?
Compared with the cleanness of getting out in one go. Done and dusted. Be done with it. No need to wait 21 months of “transition period” that would happen with a Brexit with a deal.
So, get on with it Boris! No Deal, is a good Deal!
LATER: [Just hearing the BBC quote the Confederation of British Industry apparently saying that everyone, every shopper will be affected. Again, so what? What sort of effect? Much or most is likely to be trivial.]
Related: No deal Brexit would not be a disaster. Spectator, July 2019
