Thursday 27 February 2020

Predictions on Democrats

1.  Bernie will be the nominee
2.  The Democratic Party will swing behind him.

Sure, there are plenty of Democrats who are scared witless by a Bernie nominee (and here and here because they know (a) 160 million Americans don’t want to lose their health insurance and (b) most Americans are not fond of Socialism. So they are hammering him.
But what are they going to do once he is the nominee? Are they going to keep hammering him? Which would ensure four more years of Trump? Unlikely.
After 2016 Republican primaries, Trump hammerers like Lindsay Graham quickly fell in line behind Trump when he became the nominee and more so since the election.
The Bernie Pivot involves (a) Medicare For All, but “you can keep your doctor” (as Obama promised, but didn’t quite happen). And (b) Bernie is not really a Socialist. Not the nasty type but the Democratic Socialist type, like Denmark and Norway. David Axelrod said that yesterday on the CNN post debate panel. Bill de Blasio said it this morning with Sean Hannity.
Of course (a) Bernies MFA does mean no private insurance and therefore no choice of doctor. It’s on his site. And (b) he is indeed a Socialist in the rather more serious meaning of the term: state control of the means of production. For Bernie that’s Energy, Transportation, Banking, Telecoms, Internet… phew! Enough?  He called himself a Socialist in 1980 and he hasn’t changed.
But the Democrats pivot involves: “we don’t want to re-litigate the 1960s”.  [yeah, but what about the 80s?]. And “Bernie is not really a Socialist, he’s motivated by a deep concern for the working people”. Right… and “the road to hell…”
ADDED: Bernie has two lines: (1) Medicare for All and (2) Billionaires bad.  It used to be “billionaires and millionaires" but he dropped the “millionaires” after he became one himself, one with three houses.

My first prediction will be tested this weekend at the South Carolina primaries.
And my second will be tested after Super Tuesday, March 3.
Fun days ahead for US election junkies.

Watching Live: Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren Town Halls in Charleston SC. Amy certainly comes over better singly on stage than on the debate stage. Liz comes across as strained. Some will see it as passion. I see it as false sympathy. False smile. Poor jokes.