We know some of the costs of Merkel’s panicky decision to close Germany’s nuclear power stations in the wake of Fukushima: higher electricity prices and higher carbon dioxide emissions. I did the calculations recently, here.
A recent study of the National Bureau of Economic Research, finds that the costs of closure are way more than that. Mainly the costs are higher death rates, as a result of having to keep coal burning stations online for far longer than would be if nuclear plants had not been closed down: death by particulates.
Here is the money shot from the study:
The social cost of this shift from nuclear to coal is approximately 12 billion dollars per year. Over 70% of this cost comes from the increased mortality risk associated with exposure to the local air pollution emitted when burning fossil fuels. Even the largest estimates of the reduction in the costs associated with nuclear accident risk and waste disposal due to the phase-out are far smaller than 12 billion dollars.The NBER is a reputable think tank, founded one hundred years ago and chock full of Nobel laureates. It’s non-partisan and most certainly not a “climate denier”.
The whole reason for Mad Mutti Merkel deciding to shut down the nuclear plants -- clean, green, reliable and safe -- is down to Germany’s Green Party scaremongering. When Fukushima happened, all rational thought went out the window...welcome meltdown mania!
Nuclear is the only energy industry where the measure is: "there can be zero risk". Clearly that’s unachievable. The risk of meltdown -- slight and declining -- has to be set against the benefits, and the risks of deaths from other sources: coal (hundreds of thousands a year, from particulates and mining accidents), from hydro-power flooding (170,000 in one accident alone), and so on. No energy source is zero risk. And for nuclear, the balance risk vs benefits, is about the best there is for all the alternatives including renewables. But, to be clear, I’m not saying nuclear instead of renewables. I’m saying -- and increasing numbers are also saying -- it must be nuclear in addition to renewables.
A separate report on the issue, here.
