We lived through the SARS epidemic here in Hong Kong in 2003.
The government published daily figures of infections and deaths. I set up an Excel sheet and predicted that the epidemic would end in June that year. It ended in June that year.
How it ended was by public hygiene. The virus spread by touch not by air. So wiping down elevator buttons and door knobs became a thing in all buildings. People got used to carrying antiseptic wet-wipes and using them regularly. This became a habit and is widespread to this day.
The final SARS death rate was11% 9.6%. Most were elderly. (If you’d asked me what I thought the death rate was, without looking it up, I would have said something like 50%. And that’s me, having followed it closely. I’ll bet people remember a far higher rate than 9.6%. Which may be part of what’s causing panic today).
The Wuhan virus is a SARS-like coronavirus, though less deadly. Mortality so far is virtually all among the elderly.
Virus experts tell us:
The panic is unnecessary and may even be dangerous.
ADDED (29 Jan 20): China and Hong Kong are taking dramatic measures: halting all transport links (flights, trains, buses, ferries), building isolation hospitals, developing a virus, washing down all public places. So I stick with my guess that it’s under control by end February. Vigilance not panic. UPDATE (14 Apr 20): I got it right for China re “under control" (end Feb), but clearly not for the rest of the world, which is suffering high cases and death rates.
ADDED (27 Jan 20): David Dodwell makes same points. Including: annual deaths from the common, annual flu average half a million. And death rates over 10%. Yet we don’t panic. [ADDED 27 Mar 20]: That’s wrong by a factor of 100. I don’t know where he got that figure. The actual death rate for the seasonal flu is around 0.1%]
ADDED (26 Jan 20): About the common flu: “We know the worldwide death toll exceeds a few hundred thousand people a year.”
That is from the WHO. “A few hundred thousand”!! Killed by flu. Every year. And we don’t panic.
The government published daily figures of infections and deaths. I set up an Excel sheet and predicted that the epidemic would end in June that year. It ended in June that year.
How it ended was by public hygiene. The virus spread by touch not by air. So wiping down elevator buttons and door knobs became a thing in all buildings. People got used to carrying antiseptic wet-wipes and using them regularly. This became a habit and is widespread to this day.
The final SARS death rate was
The Wuhan virus is a SARS-like coronavirus, though less deadly. Mortality so far is virtually all among the elderly.
Virus experts tell us:
- This Wuhan virus is transmitted by touch. To halt it: clean public surfaces with disinfectant. [Later (31/1): turns out they’re not sure if that’s still the case. See here [Archive]. [Later, 27/3/20: it is transmitted by air. Later still (2/4/20): WHO: we’re still not sure).
- Masks: there is no evidence they help if you haven’t got a virus, and limited evidence that they help if you do. If you want to wear one, it should be the N95 type, not the type you get at the local chemists.... [LATER: See here]. [Later, 27/3/20: masks now are pretty much mandatory here in HK. They apparently have some benefit. Later, 2/4/20: WHO today says “masks useful”. There’s new evidence from Boston Uni re aerosol transmission]
- Temperature checking at arrival airports has proven of no use. Temperature checking at source country airports might have some benefit though it’s rare. [China has locked down the
threeeighteleventhirteen [keeps updating] cities [62 million people] that have had the Wuhan virus. Complete lock down. And Beijing has abandoned all public celebrations for Chinese New Year. And still that’s not enough for some people. Australia has called for “more”. Like what, exactly?] - The Wuhan virus is less deadly than SARS. [currently at 2.3%, and appears to be dropping]. Most at risk are the very elderly.
- The way to defeat the virus is public hygiene. As we did with SARS, seventeen years ago.
- The virus experts I’ve seen and read to date are saying “no need to panic”. Vigilance, good hygiene, no panic.
The panic is unnecessary and may even be dangerous.
ADDED (29 Jan 20): China and Hong Kong are taking dramatic measures: halting all transport links (flights, trains, buses, ferries), building isolation hospitals, developing a virus, washing down all public places. So I stick with my guess that it’s under control by end February. Vigilance not panic. UPDATE (14 Apr 20): I got it right for China re “under control" (end Feb), but clearly not for the rest of the world, which is suffering high cases and death rates.
ADDED (27 Jan 20): David Dodwell makes same points. Including: annual deaths from the common, annual flu average half a million. And death rates over 10%. Yet we don’t panic. [ADDED 27 Mar 20]: That’s wrong by a factor of 100. I don’t know where he got that figure. The actual death rate for the seasonal flu is around 0.1%]
ADDED (26 Jan 20): About the common flu: “We know the worldwide death toll exceeds a few hundred thousand people a year.”
That is from the WHO. “A few hundred thousand”!! Killed by flu. Every year. And we don’t panic.
