[I’ve collected these charts over the last few weeks
and added a few created by me on latest stats. The picture from the
data (the science!) doesn’t suggest that the current panic is warranted]
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| Cases are up, but Death rates remain steady. This chart is January to July, so I took it through to October in the chart below... |
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| ... this is my chart taking the figures in the top chart though to 9 October (today). The trendline of increase in Cases, continues, while Deaths remain flat. Some might object that the Y-axis scale makes the deaths appear too low, so..... |
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| ... I made the chart of Daily World Deaths and added a linear trendline. It is sideways = no decrease, but also no increase in world daily deaths on average, and certainly no “surge” ADDED: I did the figures for further back. The trend is flat July to October. (Chart below the fold) |
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| Meantime... the sharpest drop in jobs, ever, is due to lockdown measures taken to fight the pandemic (not the pandemic itself) |
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| In the US, as elsewhere, most deaths are in Nursing homes |
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| Despite the panic, Since 1920 there has been a steady decline in global death rates |
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| When the University College London model -- which predicted 500,000 deaths in the UK-- was applied to Sweden, it gave the above range (orange and grey). The actual line, in reality, is the blue line. It was the UCL predictions that led to the severe lockdowns in the UK. |
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| The death rate of Covid-19, even allowing for a doubling to 2 million puts it at the bottom of the table of pandemics, in terms of deaths as percentage of population, above only Swine Flu |
There remains little evidence that Lockdowns work. We now have comparative figures for nations and the 50 US states, with those that have instituted lockdowns and those that haven’t. In all cases the virus goes up, then goes down. Regardless of the severity of the lockdown.
We know that lockdowns have severe economic and health costs. Many scientists (aka “experts”) are now saying we need to get on with accepting the reality of the virus, protecting the elderly and the vulnerable, masking, distancing and hand-washing, while the rest get on with life. Over 14 thousand stand against strict lockdowns.
ADDED (more charts!): below the fold...
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| This is my own chart of Daily Death, worldwide. Death rates have been flat since July |
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| This is for 50 counties in the UK. The vertical line standardises the date on which each county instituted lockdowns. The lines show what happened which is in all cases, apart from the bottom one (Leicestershire), all counties had increases in cases after the lockdown measures |
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| Spectator chart from UK gov’t figures. At the start, most cases in Care homes. Now mostly in Education and Workplace. Notable is that Restaurants are a small fraction, yet they are the ones bearing the brunt of the lockdown measures |
