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Click to enlarge and clarify
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All I’m hearing from politicians both sides of any aisle, and the media, is that the number of Covid cases are going up, variously “surging” or “exponentially”, or “worryingly” or “surging exponentially which is very worrying". Very rarely do they talk about the number of deaths. And yet this is freely available, in real time, in many places, my favourite being
Worldometer. And surely this metric is the most important. And where there is
good news, as shown in the chart above: death rates in all countries are well down, from 9-fold (Germany) to 49 fold (France), between the beginning of the pandemic in March and today.
I had a closer look at France, because it’s said to be two to three weeks ahead of the UK and the country I’m tracking most closely is the UK. The others are following the same trajectory: from few cases many deaths, to many cases few deaths.
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| France, March-April: Few cases many deaths |
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France, 15 October: Many cases few deaths
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That got me looking at the proportions for other countries in Europe-- deaths per cases at (1) the beginning of the pandemic and (2) the latest figures to15 October. Based on the highest figures for 7-day moving average. The spreadsheet I generated is this:
But don’t worry too much about this spreadsheet. It’s better summarised in the chart at the top. Which is basically this: the
number of times better we are doing today, compared with the First Wave in March-April. For all these countries, we are doing substantially better, anywhere from
9 to 49 times better. Even Sweden, the one that didn’t do lockdown, is doing much the same as the others, and very much better than at the height of the pandemic. [And I do know the complications with cases measured differently in different countries and the fact that we’re now testing more and so finding more cases. What I’m looking at tis the trend, which, in terms of deaths per cases, is positive]
And yet, and yet, and yet... there is nothing about but talk of cases, cases, cases, you better panic and lockdown (
vide Boris). Close the pubs, the clubs, the restaurants. Cancel Christmas. It’s all loony.... At least based on the science. Which is the data. Which we now have and don’t need to rely on models, the like of Imperial College London’s
Neil Ferguson’s which made Boris & Co panic.
