Friday, 26 February 2010

"Does anyone ever get it wrong?"

Alan Alanson in the South China Morning Post has a competition which really does test one's mettle.

Make four predictions in the business or economics area for the end of the year.  They have to be specific.  For example, his are:
So, first, a European or Eastern European government will default on or restructure its debt. Second, oil will hit US$100 again. Third, there will be a merger of two of the world's top media companies, and fourth, another one of the 50 largest American companies will face collapse.
My four:
[To Alan Alanson]:  Here are my four predictions for end Dec ‘10:
  1. The iPad will be a huge success, confounding the nay-sayers.
  2. Sharia-compliant Finance will be the subject of a US Congressional investigation
  3. The AusDoll will be worth more than one US$ by 31 Dec
  4. China will announce a major environmental policy — I don’t know what, but you’ll know what it is when you see it (in any case, you’re the judge!).

His article is here if you want to take part.