Well I gotta admit Citibank got it right in July last year when they predicted a price drop in Hong Kong home prices for the second half of 2018.
At the time I mocked them for "spurious accuracy" and I was right about that. Citibank predicted precisely a drop of 7% for the second half of 2018. It came in at a fall of 15%, more than double their precise prediction. Why don't people learn simple rules of estimates:
Give a direction and a range.
That's the best you can do.
The link below has an interactive chart for Rent and Sale prices for various districts in Hong Kong. That chart shows how the movements in rents are much smoother than sale price movements. That's one of the reasons property is such a good investment. You can count on steady, consistent cash flow.
For first time buyers in Hong Kong the JP Morgan predictions — 5-7% up in 2019 — means more pain, especially if the estimate error is the same as Citibank's was.
For us, we were lucky, having bought HK property in 2002.
********
JP Morgan said home prices will rise 5-7 per cent
LATER (5/5/19): in last three months prices up by 8% already)
LATER (5/5/19): in last three months prices up by 8% already)
