Omicron: real-world data from South Africa a predictor for rest of world

“Too early to panic about Omicron”. Click above

From Discovery, South Africa’s largest private insurers, real-world information of what it’s going to be like in Europe, the US and Australia in a couple of weeks. Real-world analysis of Omicron outbreak based on 211,000 COVID-19 test results in South Africa. From here via h/t to Dr Campbell.

Discovery Summary:

• Vaccine effectiveness: The two-dose Pfizer-BioNTech vaccination provides 70% protection against severe complications of COVID-19 requiring hospitalisation, and 33% protection against COVID-19 infection, during the current Omicron wave.
• Reinfection risk: For individuals who have had COVID-19 previously, the risk of reinfection with Omicron is significantly higher, relative to prior variants.
• Severity: The risk of hospital admission among adults diagnosed with COVID-19 is 29% lower for the Omicron variant infection compared to infections involving the D614G mutation in South Africa’s first wave in mid-2020, after adjusting for vaccination status
• Children: Despite very low absolute incidence, preliminary data suggests that children have a 20% higher risk of hospital admission in Omicron-led fourth wave in South Africa, relative to the D614G-led first wave.

My comment: With booster jabs common now in many countries, including us here in Hong Kong, there ought be strong protection against both catching and falling ill. Hospitalisations and death rates therefore ought be much less per capita than in the previous waves.  [Testable prediction!]

Another thing to note: Omicron is displacing Delta, not in addition to Delta. This is good news.

ADDED: I’m watching DW tv from Germany, also BBC and CNN — not a single mention of the above, which is, to repeat, live real-world data. Likely to repeat in the UK and elsewhere. But it’s as if it doesn’t exist. Why? Cause it’s not scary enough? Snootiness about South African data?

10:00 GMT: UK CMO Chris Whitby now on Sky UK and talking about issues as if the SA data simply doesn’t exist. Weird. Whoops! 10:40 GMT and he just mentioned SA. Finally!

ALSO: the idea that lockdowns have led to less help for cancer patients (or other non-covid diseases) is “an inversion of the truth”. What was needed were the lockdowns to enable cancer and other treatments.

Overall he is very impressive.

A thought: he says even Omicron is still a disease mainly of older adults. Talk of how to handle aged care patients. Seems to me brings to mind the Great Barrington Declaration and its “focused protection” strategy.