The good thing about differing views of where the Tunisian revolution is headed is that it’ll be sorted one way or t’other in coming months, maybe a year.
And then there’s my own quick take.
The position of the Muslim Brotherhood in the region has hardly been touched on – especially by those who don Cohen’s rosy spectacles – but the Brothers will be scheming and plotting to take power. They’re powerful and well organised. So, my bet is on the second view: that the Islamists will take over. I really, truly, cross-my-heart, hope that I’m wrong; that Shirk and Spencer and all of those Cohen sneeringly calls “the usual Muslim-hating naysayers” are wrong.
The two main views are simply put. There will be a flowering of democracy in Tunisia and the Arab world. Or the Islamists will take over.
The first view is that the overthrow of Tunisia’s Ben Ali and family will lead “Liberated Tunisia” to democracy. And this will spread to the Arab world. For example, the reliable dhimmi Roger Cohen again, in the New York Times today:
... a lot is at stake. If Tunisia can become the Arab world’s Turkey, a functioning democracy where Islamism is part of the electoral mosaic rather than a threat to it, the tired refrain of all the Arab despots that they are the only bulwark against the jihadists will be seen for the self-serving lie it has become.[1]
The second view is that Islamists will take over post-Ali Tunisia, and any similar revolutions in the Arab world. For example, Roland Shirk:
…regimes stay in power in Islamic countries when their leaders act like Allah--a cosmic bully impervious to reason, whose Will is absolutely unfettered, who denies free will and saves and dams those whom he pleases. That is the kind of ruler who will prevail in the Muslim world.[2]
A similar case is made by Robert Spencer, in Human Events:
The great unacknowledged truth about Tunisia and the rest of the Islamic world is that Islamic jihadists and pro-Sharia forces, far from being the "tiny minority of extremists" of media myth, actually enjoy broad popular support. Any genuine democratic uprising is likely to install them in power.[3]
And then there’s my own quick take.
The position of the Muslim Brotherhood in the region has hardly been touched on – especially by those who don Cohen’s rosy spectacles – but the Brothers will be scheming and plotting to take power. They’re powerful and well organised. So, my bet is on the second view: that the Islamists will take over. I really, truly, cross-my-heart, hope that I’m wrong; that Shirk and Spencer and all of those Cohen sneeringly calls “the usual Muslim-hating naysayers” are wrong.
It would be very nice to see such an outcome, the flowering of Arab democracy for the first time in history. To breathe a sigh of relief, that the Islam threat is not such a clear and present danger.
But, as I said, we’ll see. And it won’t take too long.
But, as I said, we’ll see. And it won’t take too long.
