Interested in your takes on this. A story of Chinese bureaucratic inertia stemming from over centralised and out-of-touch leadership, Xi-style...
"... people are crying out for changes to the system", says Deng Yuwen, independent political commentator, writing in Chinese from the U.K.
...2018 is shaping up to be a turning point for China. Today the country faces serious internal and external challenges, and is in the midst of a social transformation....
... an overall restlessness is appearing in society and people are crying out for changes to the system.
1% of China’s families own 67% of her wealth. If you polled this elite rich group, you would find many wanting to get a leg out of China, diversify their asset base overseas, even immigrate because they feel there is insufficient protection of private property here, and they would prefer a more institutionalized collective style of government in China rather than an “emperor” style of government where there is the potential that the emperor is not being told completely what is going on. So, a fair amount of fear and loathing within this group. I guess that your mate – writing from the UK – falls within this group – he’s already out!
As for the balance of the country, 97%, the majority of the “laobaixing” are probably still happy with the current crew because corruption has definitely declined and living standards are still inching higher year by year. For them, they don’t care how many terms the leader has provided that he/she is not a despot and keeps an eye open for them – for example, helps them find a place to live, and helps them get healthcare and some money when they retire. So, the bulk of the population is still relatively contented.
Like everywhere else, the key to the future is likely to reside in how the economy performs. In that respect, I think China is continuing to slow, but the government still has plenty of levers to pull to keep things propped up for the next three to five years. They need to stop supporting the State sector – which is definitely showing declining productivity and return on investment and put their weight behind the private sector so at to lead to a rejuvenation of interest in private investment in the economy. This is the mistake which has been made in the past 5 years, and were it not for a massive increase in consumption over the same period, the economy would already be in the dog house. How quickly they can stimulate the private sector to get back in the game is a BIG question for the current administration. Lately, there are some signs that the administration is finally starting to take the issue of rejuvenating the private sector seriously. In addition, they need to back off OBOR and building islands etc because those exercises are return on investment is either low or non-existent (in the case of the islands, for example).
Just a few thoughts mate. Forse, it is not all over up here by a long shot. Still got 3 to 5 years to get it right. But, you would hope that they can see the writing on the wall in 2018. Certainly, the trade war with the US is causing people to get their thinking caps back on. Except if you are an intellectual in which case you have to get your “patriot” hat back on and shut up!
