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| Hong Kong infection figures from the government dashboard |
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| Hong Kong Reproduction Rate (R). From here |
We end our second lockdown in Hong Kong today -- apart from swimming pools and beaches (which makes no sense).
So: what is the effect of lockdowns? By “lockdown” I’m referring to closing pubs, restaurants, theatres, public gatherings and the like. I’m not referring to distancing, masking and disinfecting.
They all say “follow the science” which works by putting forward a hypothesis, making predictions and testing them.
Here the hypothesis is: lockdowns halt the spread of the virus.
And the prediction is: after a lockdown, the number of cases (and the associated Reproduction, or R, rate) will fall 7-10 days later, that being the incubation period. Conversely when lockdowns are eased, one would predict a rise cases and R, 7-10 days later.
What are the results? For us here in Hong Kong, the opposite of what is predicted. See the charts above. The bottom one is the R rate and I’ve put in the dates of lockdown and easing of lockdown, focussed on the “Mean” of the Upper and Lower bounds, ie, the red line.
First lockdown was March 20, which was a week after the peak of R and infections. They had already started the downward path and the chart shows no discernable increase in the speed of the decline, as one would expect.
Lockdown Easing was on May 18 which was before the R and cases rose, then fell, then rose and fell dramatically again. In short, there is little connection between lockdown easing and the progress of the virus.
Latest lockdown, started on July 22, after the peak of R and infections.
In short, infections had started to fall before the lockdowns were introduced, the opposite of hypothesis predictions.
One can’t see (at least I can’t see) any impact on the R rate and infections due to lockdown. The ups and downs are similar to other countries, whether or not they instituted stringent lockdowns. They are, in short, the progress of the virus. The reason we had a new wave in Hong Kong is we allowed them to be imported.
