Monday 28 September 2020

Boris Bottles it

Click above to go to the vid
Boris’ speech to the nation last night. 
Two errors, at least, at first look:
UK cases

1.  The cases are not increasing exponentially. They are bumping up and down, with the latest 3-day average dropping. (see latest chart, left, or direct here)
2.  The virus is not “as deadly as ever”. Deaths are nowhere near the new cases increase, as Boris himself reveals towards the end, when he says we now have much more effective ways of treating the virus than we did back in March.
At around 4 minutes he says that they can’t just isolate the elderly and vulnerable. Why not? That was the very advice to the government back in March, by his SAGE group: the Scientific Advisory Group of Emergencies, as the ex Supreme Court Judge, Lord Sumption, points out here.
Boris says we “must follow the science”, but doesn’t.
Somewhere towards the end he says he is “hoping” and “dreaming” of things getting better. And that his SAGE group are “unanimous” that things will indeed be better in spring. But as someone once observed, “hope is not a strategy”.
Time for the Rishi Sunak approach: accept the virus is with us for foreseeable future and we must “live without fear."