China, far right, exaggerates its GDP by over 100% |
This comes to mind because of some figures out of China today that showed 3.9% growth in the latest quarter, even during Zero Covid Policy. Assuming the estimates above are correct -- China overestimates by over double -- then the likely real figure is under 2%. For China that’s a disaster. Youth unemployment is over 20%. There’s a huge debt overhang. Xi, now dictator for life, is squashing down on the private sector.
China has always outperformed on the upside. I’ve seen it with mine own eyes. But maybe that’s not the case for too much longer.
ADDED: In the 20 years studied above, China’s GDP annual compound growth rate was likely 5% and not the over 10% they claim.