Monday, 17 August 2020

Cascading Complexity of Diversity


 Andrew Sullivan in The Dish, pointing out some of the contradictions in anti-racist theory. 

In a fascinating series of tweets, and a memo, the News Guild of New York — the union that represents 1200 New York Times employees — recently set out its goals for the newspaper, especially with respect to its employees of color. Money quote: “Our workforce should reflect our home. The Times should set a goal to have its workforce demographics reflect the make-up of the city — 24 percent Black, and over 50 percent people of color — by 2025.” It also recommends “sensitivity reads” at the beginning of any story process, and wants a pipeline for jobs with a minimum of 50 percent people of color at every stage of recruitment. 

Tiny Turtle

 

Wandered into our kitchen

Sunday, 16 August 2020

Pipes “ Feeling Optimistic about Israel and the Emirates”

Daniel Pipes on the recent UAE-Israel agreement to normalise relations, something that seems to have received not quite the attention it deserves. He is optimistic for the first time in decades.

I was skeptical about Israel's 1979 peace treaty with Egypt, 1983 agreement with Lebanon, 1993 Oslo accords with the Palestine Liberation Organization, and 1994 peace treaty with Jordan. But the joint statement by Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States on Aug. 13 breaks new ground and, as it itself claims, deserves to be called "historic."

The statement boils down to Israel's commitment to "suspend declaring sovereignty over [parts of the West Bank] and focus its efforts now on expanding ties with other countries in the Arab and Muslim world." In return, the UAE "agreed to the full normalization of relations" with Israel. This exchange of promises in three ways improves on previous Israeli agreements with Arabs.

First, the Egyptian, Lebanese, and Jordanian agreements basically ignored the Palestinians, but UAE leaders can point to wringing a commitment from Jerusalem to suspend its West Bank annexation plans. (Perhaps that was what Benjamin Netanyahu all along had in mind; my colleague Matt Mainen presciently outlined two months ago the Israeli prime minister's "brilliant bluff" of sacrificing annexation for diplomatic recognition by Gulf Arabs.).  Read on…

Friday, 14 August 2020

‘How will we handle the next contagion?'

Lionel Shriver on the latest new aim — ie, the latest shifting of the goal posts. (Remember when the aim was simply to "flatten the curve?):
The graph of new cases in the UK roughly levelled off throughout July — but it has not plateaued at zero. The PM gives every indication that only zero will do. Thus as long as the coronavirus persists, the fearful prophylactic measures will continue. 
In trade for this valiant vigilance on our behalf, we merely have to sacrifice: our friends. Any new friends. All live performance — music, plays. Restaurants. All occasions, like proper weddings, funerals, birthdays and extended–family celebrations. Travel. Colleagues. Any search for love. Any moving communal experience, like festivals. Dentistry. A functional National Health Service. Oh, and the economy — and in case you need translation, that means the country, full stop

Quong Tart: champion of the cause

  • Quong Tart came to Australia in 1859 as an enterprising nine-year-old, where he later established a tea export business and set up elegant tea rooms
  • At a time when there were few places women could mingle with ease, the tea rooms formed important venues for women’s early discussions on getting the vote

A lovely story about a Chinese-Australian that I’d never heard of (why not?), but ought be more widely known: Quong Tart, aka Quong. He was an entrepreneur and philanthropist in late 19th and early 20th century Sydney. About the same time our grandfather arrived from Ballymena in Northern Ireland and set up his own shop, Forsythe’s, on the corner of Pitt and Goulburn, just a few blocks south of Quong’s King St Tea House, above.  Quong’s Tea shops flourished and survived while Forsythe’s was wiped out in the depression. 

Quong gets his name from the transliteration of his name in Cantonese (he was from Taishan, Guangdong): Mei Kwong Tat, but which someone — perhaps an immigration officer — chose to render as Quong Tart.  It was common practice in those days for the names of new arrivals with “funny names” to be given one by the first officer they met.  In Mandarin it’s Mei Guangda (梅光达). More at Wikipedia 

/Snip, from the article…

Thursday, 13 August 2020

Wuhan, WHO and WTF (?)

 

Not on the itinerary: Wuhan Institute of Virology

A delegation from WHO is in China trying to find the source of the virus. “We must keep an open mind”, says team leader Mike Ryan. But not open enough to demand seeing the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Of which reasonable questions remain, even amongst international virologists. It is, at least, a possibility that the virus escaped from the lab: 

Filippa Lentzos, biosecurity researcher at King’s College London, said while there is currently no proof for the lab accident theory, there is also “no real evidence” that the virus came from the wet market. Link

In fact there is now “real evidence” that the virus did not originate in the Wuhan wet market, according to Professor Gao Fu, head of China’s Centre for Disease Control, quoted in SCMP, 23 May:

“We first believed the virus originated in the seafood market, but now it looks like that the market is just another victim. The virus existed [before the infections happened in the market],” Gao said. Link

And there’s still the Five Eyes Intel dossier, in which our joint intelligence bodies assessed widespread Chinese cover up.

Rarely mentioned in press reports is that the French built the facility and have ever since refused to sign off on it, such were their concerns about its safety. Even the WHO has refused to certify the facility. US officials and scientists voiced “grave concerns” about its safety protocols after visits to the Institute back in March 2018. 

But the WHO team in China now won’t even visit WIV. Rather like air crash investigators deciding not to look at the wreckage.

The idea that it was just a totally natural occurrence is circumstantial. The evidence it leaked from the lab is circumstantial. Right now, the ledger on the side of it leaking from the lab is packed with bullet points and there’s almost nothing on the other side,” the official said. Link

One of those bullet points must be the very fact that China refuses access to the WIV. If it were not implicated, why not open it up? Yet all along China has suppressed info and kept even WHO in the dark.

Meantime, the virologist in the centre of the storm, Dr Shi Zhengli, aka “Batwoman” of Wuhan, puts her case to Science magazine. She sounds a fun lady. Speaks fluent French and English and wows conventioneers with her renditions Chinese folk songs. She is, Science says, very professional and highly regarded in the international virologist community.

ADDED: An accidental release of a natural virus is one thing. The virus being bioengineered and released  is quite another. To date what I’ve read has told me it weren’t so. Last week an “internationally renowned Italian scientist” published a book claiming just this. By Dr Giuseppe Tritto.  He also claims the WIV is now run by the PLA, whereas rest of the media continues to say it comes under the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Hmmm…

Wednesday, 12 August 2020

Meet President Harris

 Joe names Kamala Harris as his running mate. Given his age and infirmity, it’s very likely she will take over as president, sooner or later. Interesting pick. Had been favourite, until last few days when the odds shifted to Susan Rice. Both have their issues. Kamala’s are flip-floppingness.

ADDED: NYT says she’s a moderate pick… but  Harris is no moderate.  Her pursuit of power and Kevin Williamson On Kamala Harris.

ADDED (13 August): Just one example of prosecutorial misconduct. Blocking exculpatory evidence:

Here is Lara Bazelon, director of the Criminal Juvenile Justice and Racial Justice Clinical Programs, in the New York Times, writing when Harris was only a primary candidate about a particularly appalling case involving the moderate pragmatist from California:

Consider her record as San Francisco’s district attorney from 2004 to 2011. Ms. Harris was criticized in 2010 for withholding information about a police laboratory technician who had been accused of “intentionally sabotaging” her work and stealing drugs from the lab. After a memo surfaced showing that Ms. Harris’s deputies knew about the technician’s wrongdoing and recent conviction, but failed to alert defense lawyers, a judge condemned Ms. Harris’s indifference to the systemic violation of the defendants’ constitutional rights.

Ms. Harris contested the ruling by arguing that the judge, whose husband was a defense attorney and had spoken publicly about the importance of disclosing evidence, had a conflict of interest. Ms. Harris lost. More than 600 cases handled by the corrupt technician were dismissed.

Link.

Clearly these are all National Review articles I’m quoting (apart from the one NYT article), but that’s deliberate because the NYT, the Washington Post, the CNN, etc views, are out there and dominating the narrative about Harris, and what a wonderful choice she is. So this is a bit of balance. 

All I’m getting on my Google News feed -- allegedly neutral -- is stuff from CNN, WaPo, NYT and the Guardian. And they’re all on the same point, about how wonderful Kamala is. I don’t think so. But then I’m biased. But then, so are you. And so is all the MSM..... good luck and goodnight.

 

Monday, 10 August 2020

Killing the chicken to scare the monkey

Jimmy Lai, owner of the Apple Daily, was arrested today under the provisions of the new National Security Law. I’ve always thought Lai a bit of a clown, a jerk even.  But he didn’t deserve to be arrested for that.  Even if he did go to Taiwan where he called for interference in Hong Kong by the US and Britain, which I thought pretty abysmal. [ADDED: the point is made that the NSL was not supposed to be retroactive, so what has Lai done since July 1st?).

As the owner of one of the most popular tabloids in Hong Kong, his arrest certainly sends a clear message. Don’t mess with us, or else. It’s the classic Chinese tactic, to “Kill the chicken to scare the monkey” 杀鸡儆猴, Sha Ji Jing Hou.  Monkeys are already scared. Today on RTHK Radio 3 Hong Kong, their talk show, normally lively and provocative, was just music and lifestyle progs.*

Today a comment of mine on the SCMP website was removed.  First time ever. In one comment thread, only seven out of 19 comments remained, after the rest had beeen moderated out. Again, never seen before. Self-censorship is censorship and it’s started in a big way. 

This is all pretty shitty. And it doesn’t help that we could say to the likes of Jimmy Lai “we told  you so”.

Do I start packing? 

********

*RTHK Radio 3 today (11/8) seems normal again, with eg. Emily Lau, Democratic Party, lambasting Beijing and the government, and hammering the arrest of Lai.

ADDED (11 August): comments on radio that international business based in Hong Kong are positive about HK future and we’d agree based in our own contacts. Local offices have problems convincing their head offices because they have the views of their local media, namely that “HK is dead”.  Not quite. Even if trend not good.

The Two Chinas

Gansu goats

I realise that my post on Chinese people being happy, is biased. Because I was only thinking of people in the cities. Things are not nearly so bright in the country. I did say so in a post a while back -- stories that paint a picture of class divide in China -- and also in a video I posted that I can’t find for the moment, which look at the terrible state of many in the countryside. 

It’s a picture you can see if you leave the superhighway, the brand new freeway, and go down any dirt track to any village. You’ll encounter a scene of poverty, of decrepitude and decay. People are leaving the country for the city, for obvious reasons (something happening throughout the world and really obvious in places like Russia and Japan). Even if they have problems getting permissions (the hukou) for living in the city, people are desperate to leave. 

I’m correcting that bias now, by reposting the above link to my earlier story and by linking to “The Two Chinas”.

‘China sympathisers’: a new Red Scare stalks Australian businesses

You get the gist of this article from the headline. “Red Scare”. Harking back to the infamous McCarthy witch hunts. So, according to Su-Lin Tan, China is unfairly hammered by racist, nationalist, isolationist, flag-waving right-wing Australians who slander all those fine folk supporting China as “China sympathisers” and appeasers”.  They are creating an unnecessary “Red Scare” and are —  of course!—  driven by Trump and his acolytes’ Sinophobic rhetoric. 

Most of the comments on the article buy this line. Yes, they agree, Australia is the most racist country in the world and in China policy is just America’s lapdog.

The “red scare” faction — I’ll call them China Doves — set up one straw man after another. Eg, quoting ex head of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (the one I was in for seven years), Dennis Richardson:

For one group to continually wrap themselves in the flag and want to imply that those who disagree with them are not loyal Australians is simply crossing a line,” Richardson said…

He’s referring to remarks of one politician which he then ascribes to all China critics — the straw man argument — who are simply “wrapping themselves in the flag”. 

Or, quoting mining magnate Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest:

…he said he would “crack on with helping my country, unapologetic to those who think racism or isolationism is a viable path for Australia.”

Again, the straw man is that every critic of China and our trade relations is a racist isolationists. There are no doubt some who are. But I know Australian businesspeople living on the mainland for over forty years, married to Chinese, who are pissed off — and have been for a long while — with the increasing mercantilism, ripping off foreign businesses in more and more blatant ways. That’s why they’re critical. Not because they’re racist or isolationist. They just want a fair go. Mainlanders don’t know about these frustrations because China bans 125+ websites, including our own ABC.  

Or, quoting Jocelyn Chey, our ex Consul-General in Hong Kong:

Anti-communist sentiments have been there for decades and again it has been fanned by Breitbart, Fox News and the Falun Gong media, spreading to Australia and other English-language parts of the world

Here my criticism is not so much that it’s a straw man argument (though it is) as the suggestion that having “anti-communist sentiments” is somehow wicked and down to wicked right wing media. 

I’ve had “anti-communist sentiments” since I arrived in a China in 1976 and saw what communism had done to the country. And then witnessed what introduction of market forces did in the subsequent forty years. Chey co-authored a slim book in 1975 titled “China’s New Society”. I have a copy in my bookshelf  it’s deservedly rare. A disturbingly over the top paean of praise for Maoism, it landed on shelves shortly before China itself ditched that very same Maoism that Chey was in thrall to. It would seem those sentiments have necer quite been abandoned by Chey, in her mocking, today, of people who are a bit leery about communism, whether Maoist, Marxist, or, like Xi Jinping, good old Leninist, even if leavened with “Chinese characteristics”. 

The article mocks concerns about Beijing’s furtive influence in Australian society, especially in education and the media. But the influence is real and widespread, via its United Front Works Department. It’s naive and dangerous to downplay it.

And all the above is before we get to the Uygurs, Tibet, Hong Kong, and, yes, even Tiananmen. 

A final observation, mostly ad hominem, but then so are the comments by those interviewed. All he interviewees, bar one, are superannuated public servants. The one not is Twiggy Forrest, but then his fortune comes from digging up earth and shipping it to China. All the others, Richardson, Chey, Clifton, Barratt, Smith, and are all ex public servants, now superannuated or in academic sinecures. Not a one of them knows what it’s like to meet a wage bill. Not a one of them knows what it’s like to actually do business in China. As one who has and does, I can say it gives you a very different perspective on things. 

Wouldn’t this article have been rather more balanced if it had included comments from the front line of business with China? 

Sunday, 9 August 2020

“ National Security law is price we all pay for the self-serving tactics of pro-democracy camp”

2014 banging the drums for Occupy, rather than
agreeing to more voting rights. The 
characters, kang ming, say “disobey”.

This letter covers pretty much word for word what I’ve been saying in this blog for a year now. We supported the anti-extradition law protests but stopped supporting the protests when they became violent and clearly self-defeating.

The letter writers is just another gweilo like me, so doesn’t count for much… and is getting attacked in the comments, because he’s not tough enough on the “cruel and illegitimate” communist party.  

Still, it seems spot on, at least to me. The outcome of tougher crack down by Beijing was entirely predictable and was predicted. 

So the question then is: if you know, for absolute sure, that by doing X, the certain outcome will be Y, and Y is something you definitely don’t want, do you still go ahead and do X?   Even if it makes you feel better, braver, more virtuous? I’m steering clear of using the phrase “virtue signalling”, but, you know… 

It’s not that by not protesting you do nothing. We could have worked on universal suffrage, by, for example, tying it to implementing our own version of the Article 23 Security Law. This would have been better all round and, moreover, may we’ll have been achievable.  Consider how long it took for Beijing to act in the face of widespread and lengthy provocations — slagging off the Party in graffiti everywhere, attacking, burning, vandalising mainland or Beijing-owned businesses, calling mainlanders ”locusts”, refusing to serve mandarin speakers, all that nativist, bigoted stuff was going in weekly, throughout our city for months in end. Then Beijing stepped in with the National Security Law. Well done, pan-Dems …

The letter, copied below the fold:

Saturday, 8 August 2020

In polarised city, news media neutrality is important

LETTER TO SCMP:

I am a long-time print subscriber to both The Atlantic and the SCMP

I agree with Chow Chung-yan that The Atlantic’s article on the Post was a travesty of bias. (In polarised city, news media neutrality is importantAugust 8)
It happens I did my own “survey” of the Post’s coverage of current affairs back in January. Over an arbitrary period of fifteen days, I divided its Op-Ed articles and Letters into three categories: (a) “Critical” as in anti-government anti Beijing (ie yellow); (b ”Pro” as in pro-government, pro-Beijing (ie blue); and (c) “Neutral” as in no particular leaning detected (ie green). The results are here.(Chart above).
As I said then:
I’ve been reading the South China Morning Post for forty-odd years. When, in 2015, it was bought by China-based Alibaba, I was worried -- as were many folks -- that it would become a mouthpiece of Beijing. I’ve kept an eagle eye on it, and I don’t think it has. It remains, in my view, the best English language paper in Asia. So, yes, it’s reliable.
I did a follow up in June. Results here. It remains pretty much the same.
Figures are numbers of articles. Similar to earlier
Now, I readily acknowledge I have my own biases, as does every single person on the planet. I did try to judge as fairly as I could, as I was doing it purely for my own interest. And what’s important is the trend. In the case of the Post, the trend appears neutral, which is good. The same cannot be said for The Atlantic where the trend is increasingly “woke”. And for the woke what’s  important is the “narrative”, in this case the narrative being that the Post is irredeemably pro Beijing. It ain’t so.
I’ve said to friends that the one thing that would make me consider leaving Hong Kong would be if the Post became just another mouthpiece for Beijing, as that would really be the end of press freedom here. I’m counting on you, Mr Chow — and all the staff at the Post — to allow me to remain in Hong Kong!

Peter Forsythe
Discovery Bay, Hong Kong 

Friday, 7 August 2020

Decode China: US pulls plug on Chinese-language news site for Australia without explanation


  • Decode China had been envisaged as an outlet to ‘expose and counter propaganda and disinformation’ with funding from Washington
  • Observers said it could have acted as a balancing force to Chinese state media, which has made significant inroads in Australia in recent years [Link]
An Australian program on China I’d never heard of, and now never will, as it’s been canned before launch for reasons unknown, at least to we humble readers, which reasons would be fascinating to learn. 
The article has an embedded video interview with Gareth Evans, ex-Foreign Minister of Australia. I knew Gareth back in the day, when I was a senior member of the Foreign Service and he was minister. He was always smart and straight forward and I respected him. Still do, including in the interview, which struck me as clear eyed about China and our, Australia’s, relations with China, which he describes as the “worst I’ve known them”. Agree.  He contemplates some ways our relationship with China may be improved, including working together on “problems without borders”. And both sides stepping back from the bellicose rhetoric. With which, good luck…(as I’m sure Gareth would know).
Also mentioned in the article is Jocelyn Chey, founder of the Australia China Council. I worked alongside Jocelyn when she was Australia’s Consul-General to Hong Kong, back in the nineties. 
I’ve never forgotten a little book she wrote -- “China’s New Society” -- still on my bookshelf, which was published in 1975 just before I arrived in China at the fag end of the cultural revolution in 1976, where she was Cultural Counsellor. It praised all the Maoist stuff that was going on, and was just about to be overturned with the arrest of the Gang of Four. I’ll bet she wishes it’d be forgotten. But… quoted in the article linked above she dumps on Aussie critics of the Communist Party. So apparently she’s still in that camp. 
Another connection with Jocelyn. In 1990 I took over her apartment in Harbour City Kowloon. She’d just finished a stint as head of the International Wool Secretariat in Asia, based in Hong Kong. The IWS had decided to shift out of HK. I got the apartment with all the furnishings, Persian rugs, cutlery, crockery, the whole lot, for a snap. I was taking up a newly-created position of Executive General Manager of Austrade for East Asia, Hong Kong based, and needed a digs. 
What a digs! 2,800 sq. ft. Views from two enormous balconies right across to Central, downstairs to Canton Road and bustling Tsim Sha Tsai. Three huge bedrooms, each with en-suite, massive kitchen and lounge. Outside a fabulous pool and the free membership to the Pacific Club with its three-Michelin-star restaurant, indoor pool, jacuzzi, spa, air-conditioned tennis courts. What a place! For a single guy, in a new fancy job, with a salary at the top end of Australia’s civil service and right smack bang in the middle of rhe beating heart of Hong Kong. 
Oh boy. I’ve just remembered all of that. What a time! For fun, and play. And a bit of work…

Thursday, 6 August 2020

Children ARE “almost immune” from the coronavirus

CNN says it’s a “false claim”. But it’s not, not by any measure of its fatality. CNN takes of “viral load” which is irrelevant if the outcome is minimal or no symptoms
The figures for deaths by age show that just 5 of 49,607 deaths to end July were children under ten. That’s 0.01% of deaths. That’s pretty much the definition of “almost immune”. And we know that there are no known cases of children passing in the coronavirus to teachers.
Therefore kids should be back at school. 
But Facebook and Twitter deleted Trump’s post about children being “a,most immune” because they say it’s “misinformation”. It’s not. They are doing this because he’s Orange Man Bad. 
The misinformation is actually the other way around. It is misinformation to suggest that children are as susceptible as adults. For that will delay children getting back to school, something which is needed for their mental health. Teachers are holding up banners saying “I can teach from a computer. I can’t teach from a coffin”. Ridiculous: there has not been a single case in the world  of a teacher getting Covid from kids. So the misinformation is there, from the teachers (and Facebook and Twitter), not from OMB — at least in this one case.
We ought be working on facts. On the science. On the data. Which tells us the kids should be back at school. 

China: ‘The influence game'

I know how it works, the United Front. 

And it's true, this piece by Juliet Samuel. on China's United Front Work Department - which reports directly to the Central Committee of the Communist Party — is a scary and scarily efficient outfit. We ignore it only if we're naive, or if we are wilfully ignorant. Those first class tickets to a thorough China duchessing, are mighty appealing…. The UFWD knows just how to flatter and cajole. They've been at it almost 100 years. They're very good at it. 

Juliet Samuel has some simple suggestions at the end, of what Britain should do. Any country which cares for its security and dignity ought do no less — demand accountability and transparency. 

She speaks well of Australia's policies in this area. But there are plenty of uber-sinophiles in Oz, who speak out against standing up to China. "It'll impact our economic relations" don't you know.

The influence game

Why do we still struggle to see Xi's China as a threat?

For years Westminster has been obsessing over Russian interference in Britain. Yet while we fret over oligarchs and social-media bots, the most dangerous assault on our democracy and security goes not just unchallenged, but largely unnoticed. Beijing is richer and more sophisticated than Moscow on every level, and its influence more prevalent across British society. But even as we witness events in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, we still struggle to see China as a threat to our way of life.

This blind spot means China has been able quietly to amass huge amounts of influence with little pushback. Just look at how Huawei settled itself in our communications infrastructure and then expanded into our establishment.

The company started spending in a big way in the early 2010s, handing out grants and courting scientists at Whitehall champagne parties, according to a former academic. Last year, it gave £155,000 to Jesus College, Cambridge and it has at least a dozen universities on its payroll, including the LSE, Edinburgh, Imperial and Manchester.

Naturally, where cash goes, influence follows. Huawei's UK board has been stuffed with grandees, from ex-BP man Lord Browne, who just quit, to ex-BT man Sir Mike Rake, who just joined. It has hired at least seven PR firms (Finsbury, BCW, MHP, Ogilvy, FleishmanHillard, Hawthorne and Flint Global). It can draw on advice from some of Britain's most senior ex-officials — such as Sir Simon Fraser, former head of the Foreign Office, and Sir Andrew Cahn, former head of UK Trade & Investment. Tories debating 5G can count on hearing from an old colleague, Kris Hopkins, an MP till 2017 but now a Huawei 'senior public relations manager'. And Huawei hasn't forgotten the wonks: Chatham House and the Centre for Policy Studies have both received money.

The wonder, then, isn't really that Britain has relied on this officially 'untrusted' company to keep our phones pinging, but that the government can bring itself to ban Huawei at all. Yet while backbenchers in Westminster celebrate their 'victory' after the government's U-turn last month, onlookers scratch their heads. They wonder not just how a seven-year, post-election phase-out amounts to a ban, but, more importantly, how Britain's elites have been so comprehensively bought — and what on earth can be done about it.

The influence-buying in the Huawei case is replicated throughout the country in academia, business and politics. It is the result of a highly successful Chinese government programme called 'the United Front', which began as a branch of Chinese Communist party activity intended to subvert counter-revolutionary forces. According to Mao Zedong, it was a 'magic weapon' that would help communists to victory, a phrase repeated by Xi Jinping as he has expanded its activities since 2015. Now, the term 'the United Front' applies to an array of Chinese government interests, from suppressing minorities in Tibet and Xinjiang to transferring technology from abroad and recruiting supporters for the CCP's strategic aims through cash, persuasion or blackmail, both at home and among elites the world over.

In recent years, some democratic countries have been waking up to the fact that large chunks of their societies have fallen under the sway of a foreign force with truly malicious intentions. In New Zealand, a sitting member of the House of Representatives, Jian Yang, recently announced his coming retirement over a row about his links to Chinese military intelligence. In Australia, police raided the political office of sitting Labor MP Shaoquett Moselmane, an outspoken supporter of Beijing, in a counter-espionage investigation. The US government is leading an assault on CCP influence over American society. Investigators have discovered that dozens of US scientists had not been declaring funding received from the Chinese government. Meanwhile, intensive lobbying by tech companies has created loopholes in legislation meant to stop sensitive, early-stage US technology being bought by China.

But as our allies take action, the UK remains detached. Huawei and Hong Kong might make headlines, but below the radar the CCP and its allies promote soft, soporific voices in the British establishment who insist we reject 'protectionism', embrace 'global cooperation' and 'engage' with Beijing, no matter how many international agreements it violates, how vile its policies are and how little we gain from this so-called 'engagement'. The pro-China business group the China-Britain Business Council is lobbying the UK government to do more business with Beijing after Brexit. The CBBC's chair, Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles, another former diplomat, is now head of public affairs at HSBC, which recently expressed support for China's new security law in Hong Kong.

These 'global cooperation' arguments find purchase not because of their inherent value, but because of the people that voice them. Clive Hamilton and Mareike Ohlberg's new book Hidden Hand: Exposing How the Chinese Communist Party Is Reshaping the World describes just one of the vehicles for this influence operation: an organisation called the 48 Group Club founded by old UK allies of the CCP. The club organises free trips to China and promotes close links between senior communists and British elites, with a membership list that, according to Hamilton and Ohlberg, includes Tony Blair, John PrescottMichael Heseltine, Alex SalmondJack StrawPeter Mandelson, the Duke of Westminster, five former UK ambassadors to Beijing and an array of business people and academics.

Matthew Henderson, an old Foreign Office hand now at the Henry Jackson Society think tank, puts it well: 'They've identified vanity, greed, a cosiness in the British establishment that they are now replicating — people who like funny academic caps and robes, people who like medals, slightly odd handshakes, guilds.' Tom Tugendhat, chair of the Foreign Affairs select committee, says: 'The currency for MPs isn't cash. It's ego… You get flown over first class, treated like a king, interviewed for CGTN [China Global Television Network], picked up in a limousine, put through make-up. The waiting room has got lobsters in it.'

It isn't just politicians, however. Academics are just as susceptible. British and Chinese academics regularly collaborate not just on commercially valuable technology like 5G — itself risky enough — but on research with clear military and security applications, like image recognition, drone communications, supercomputing and nuclear physics. Beijing's 'Thousand Talents Plan', a scheme for recruiting foreign scientists, draws our underfunded researchers into Beijing's orbit with prizes, junkets and grants, disguising its political or military intentions with empty rhetoric about free and open inquiry.

These projects frequently link UK universities with Chinese institutions that are intimately tied to Beijing's defence programme. Sometimes they even use British taxpayers' money to do it. Yet when I revealed these links in a Telegraph investigation with colleagues, it caused barely a ripple in academic circles. It is so widespread and so lucrative that our universities just accept it.

The sheer depth and breadth of the problem makes it seem overwhelming. Again, though, other countries have shown us where to start. In 2018, the US passed FIRRMA, a law that expanded national security grounds for blocking foreign takeovers and joint ventures involving technology transfer. And having let things slide for years, the FBI is now enforcing rules on academic funding transparency.

More broadly, the US debate is changing to reflect the fact that security and commerce cannot be separated any more. 'They're intertwined now in a way they weren't during the Cold War,' says James Lewis, of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. In Beijing, this is a deliberate policy that has a name: 'military-civil fusion'.

Despite these developments, however, UK authorities still preside over shockingly lax disclosure rules for academics and have utterly failed to advise universities on suitable research partnerships with Chinese institutions. Nor is the government doing anything to protect our campuses from Chinese censorship and spying on its students.

We could also learn a lot from Australia. In 2018, Canberra passed laws defining foreign interference and criminalising covert or coercive activities. Those engaged in foreign influence must now disclose what they are up to. The legislation is a well-targeted attempt to take on the United Front. Even so, Canberra is struggling to devote enough resources to the problem.

In Britain, there is talk of similar laws. No. 10 Sinosceptics such as Munira Mirza, head of the policy unit, are pushing for action, but despite Covid and Hong Kong, Boris Johnson still struggles to believe in the extent of the threat. If he won't engage, his MPs may begin to force the matter. Bob Seely, a Tory member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, has started work on a foreign lobbying act, which could take elements from US and Australian legislation. The aim is not just to take on spies, but to force the CCP's covert influence activities out of the shadows. Foreign companies or states that meet particular criteria could be made to declare who and what they are funding. Likewise, the Advisory Committee on Business Appointments, the toothless system for vetting business jobs for ex-officials and politicians, needs a major overhaul.

The UK must pass laws and launch investigations. But even more than that, it must recognise that the CCP does not want to co-operate or be persuaded to adopt our values. It wants to subvert and supplant. On his blog, Dominic Cummings is fond of quoting Sun Tzu, so perhaps he will recognise this wisdom: 'If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.' Britain is already losing the war. Indeed, we have barely realised we are fighting it.






Lockdown Lovers are selfish

As it turned out, many people loved lockdown, especially the well-off, middle-aged middle classes with Ocado, gardens and good broadband. 
Says Rachel Johnson, Boris’ younger sister. 
I’m going to go ahead and say: and “many people are plain selfish”. Or ignorant. 
Selfish or ignorant, about what, exactly? Well, about this:
Over two hundred million people have been thrown out of work world-wide.people,are,going hungry.  Hundreds of thousands of small businesses have shuttered. 15,000 restaurants in the US alone have closed, permanently. Lives have been ruined, dreams crushed. And these nice well-off, middle class folk are “lovin’ it”? 

Getting facts right on Sweden’s coronavirus response

A letter in the British Medical Journal 
Sweden does not have a herd immunity strategy, and it is irresponsible for The BMJ to perpetuate this myth. Similarly,the decision not to “lockdown”is only “controversial” because the media have framed it as such. It is time for the word lockdown to be replaced with precise, non-sensational language that describes the measures taken.
Most of the media coverage has focused on country level data, which is misleading. Stockholm county has 91 deaths per 100 000, whereas Skåne county, including Malmö, has about 15; Blekinge has the lowest, with 4.4 deaths per 100 000. I am still waiting for an article on what we can learn from Blekinge’s approach to covid-19.
Sweden does not have a single approach to covid-19; its response is a mixture of policies at national, regional, and local levels and in sectors outside of the health system such as public transportation. Although a strategy might be set nationally, the responsibility for implementation can be regional or local. In Sweden social care, including care homes for the elderly, is run by municipalities, whereas healthcare is run by the county. Municipalities are also responsible for public health education campaigns and for enforcing physical distancing in public and commercial spaces. In practice, the balance of responsibilities is blurry and can differ depending on the county and municipality. Much of the “public” sector in Sweden is privatised, which raises further questions of responsibility (and blame).
Compulsory physical distancing measures exacerbate social and health inequalities to a greater extent than voluntary ones. With some exceptions, people in Sweden have continued to have access to regular and specialist care, and children have had access to education. The importance of a semi-normally functioning society cannot be overstated.
Sweden, and the Swedish approach, is much more multilayered than portrayed in the media, and this hinders serious policy evaluation.
Rachel E. Irwin, Researcher

My comment: the US is the same only more so. Virtually all the detailed coronavirus response measures are at the State level, then county, then city. The federal government has very limited mandate. A national mask law, for example, would be unconstitutional. So, when it’s time to toss bouquets or hurl brickbats, the targets must be state governors, and on down the line. 
On this point, to repeat: the ten worst performing states in America, are all run by democratic governors. The narrative is the opposite, of course. According to CNN, NYT, etc, it’s the red states that performing badly. The opposite is the truth, if one goes by figures. That’s not to say that anyone has figured out the single best way to handle this disease. Because they haven’t. Researcher Irwin, above, is saying as much. 
Related: from “The Swedish Economic Model”:

Wednesday, 5 August 2020

Joe Rogan and Nancy Panza: what’s wrong with police and what to do about it

Nancy Panza talks to Joe Rogan

This is a terrific podcast for anyone interested in post George Floyd street violence and the calls to “Defund the police”. She knows whereof she speaks, which is rarely the case amongst the commentariat and twitterati.
ADDED:  Usually mentioned only in passing: that police departments have many minority ethnic officers. Not always completely reflective of the surrounding community, but often not far off. 
Here’s some info from governing.com

Tuesday, 4 August 2020

“How to test a Chinese cook“

Peking duck. Often maligned because it’s often cooked poorly
“How to test a Chinese cook“: as in a cook of Chinese food, as opposed to a chef who’s Chinese…
From “Vintage cookbook collects recipes from 1970s China, tells you how to judge a good Chinese chef”.
  • Five Treasures of Chinese Cuisine’ assembles recipes from Guangzhou, Fujian, Beijing, Shanghai and Sichuan
  • Written by friends Flora Chang and Gaynell Fuchs, it includes recipes for sweet and sour pork and Peking duck
The authors suggest testing the skills of the cook (whether hired or yourself) with three dishes: egg flower soup, steamed pork hash and stir-fried beef.
My comments:
Egg flower soup is easy to make. Italy has a version, adding to the links between Chinese and Italian — the whole “spaghetti v noodles” thing. AKA “Egg drop soup“: so easy even Basil could cook it.
“Ready when you are, boss!”
Steamed pork hash: also easy. Also boring. Yummy. (Having just made a batch)
Stir-fried beef: which version?? There are approximately a million ways to cook “stir-fried” beef. Again, it’s pretty easy to turn out a tasty good looking one.
What I’d add to test a cook of Chinese are:
Peking duck. This a very hard to cook in a home oven. Can de done, but needs time and real skill. The best Peking duck we’ve ever had was at the Beijing Kitchen in Macau last January. The best I’ve had in over forty years in China. The chefs are specialists working at a huge wood fired oven that gets to over 300c.
Ma Po Doufu: the famous “pock-marked granny’s bean curd”. Sichuanese style chilli bean curd. Not difficult, but hard to get it just right.
Dan Dan Mian: another from Sichuan. Chilli noodles, with a dash of pork mince. Widely cooked, rarely well. Me, myself, I, am a bit of an expert in this, if I say so meself.  Having got a secret recipe in Peking in 1976 and perfected it since. I should say “worked at perfecting it”, since, like happiness, it’s a pursuit, never fully achieved.

Monday, 3 August 2020

Stiglitz v Lomborg and Nordhaus

From here
Lomborg has written a new book, False Alarm, drawing on Nobel laureate Nordhaus, and copping criticism from another Nobel laureate, Joe Stieglitz. Lomborg responds here. And below is a comment on the
Lomborg refutation.
Lomborg reprints a chart (above) showing that natural disaster costs, as a percent of GNP, have trended down in the last twenty years — for all countries, rich and poor. Not to say that climate change is not affecting natural disasters, just that their costs have not increased, contrary to what I presume is the commons wisdom. 
The extent to which climate change, man made, increases natural disasters differs by disaster type. Typhoon numbers and severity, for example, trend pretty flat. Forest fires another matter. The serious bushfires last year in Australia were worse because Australia is drier and drier is down to climate change. 
Lomborg is not a “climate denier” (odd phrase, that). He accepts that climate change is real and that it’s anthropogenic to some, perhaps large, degree. His main point is that we have limited resources to mitigate climate change so we have try to work our costs of climate change and costs of mitigation and make choices where to put our limited resources. That seems to me a fair point. Even a necessary one.
From the comments below Lomborg’s refutation, highlighting other factors to be considered in the climate change issue. 
Young-Jin Choi at Oxon:
Björn, the second mistake is the most consequential one. Your entire argument for deprioritizing and effectively delaying climate change mitigation rests on the premise that the future costs and damages of climate change are not as high as to justify the costs of decarbonizing the global economy. While the costs (and potential economic gains) of decarbonization are a separate matter to discuss, I want to encourage you to consider a more realistic and comprehensive estimate of the possible costs and damages of climate change. 

Loving Hong Kong too much

What I’ve been saying since the demonstrations turned violent last year.
1. Pan-Dems should not have refused the offered advances in voting, back in 2014.
2. Demonstrators have brought down on us the very things they were fighting against: more Beijing interference and the National Security Law. Yonden Lhatoo in sarcastic humour. Comments are split.
So Hong Kong’s police unit recently set up to enforce the new national security law has issued arrest warrants for half a dozen activists who have fled the city. They’re accused of inciting secession and collusion with foreign forces to endanger national security.

Sunday, 2 August 2020

Covid-19 really IS an “old person’s disease"


This is based on figures in the UK, 7% of the world’s deaths as reported at the University of Cambridge.
Australia, HK, China and the US figures are all very similar.
In short: nearly 90% of deaths are in people over 65.  Only 1% of deaths are for those under 45, and just 0.1% for under 45. This is very much a disease of the elderly.
People then respond that “we must not treat any death, even older deaths, any differently”.  And there’s something in that. But it’s still not the same, and we know that, and the statisticians know that, and actuaries know that, and politicians know that, and we all know that: someone dying at age 90 is not the same as someone dying at age 20. It’s just not.

THEREFORE: ring fence the elderly, especially those with conditions (like me). Tell younger people living close to older folks to be careful. Otherwise: get on with work, play, gym, pub and restaurants. Encourage masking and disinfecting and social distancing. Otherwise, don’t lockdown and get on with life.

Olive and Mabel

“Seizing the day”. Mabel and Olive after a hard day’s yakka 
And Andrew Cotter’s playlist of all the doings of Olive and Mabel is here. It’s very fun. 
Check out his Twitter
Then there’s Nala in the dog-bird Olympics.  “Such is the way of dogs”.

Britain’s woodland coverage has returned to medieval levels


I seem to recall reading somewhere that grass absorbs even more CO2 than trees. Still, this is a bit of good news in all the gloom, even if Brazil is chopping down more of the Amazon than Britain is replanting. 

The roots of wokeness


If you want to understand what’s going on in American today, indeed on western streets, the mayhem and arson, you need to read this. I’m pasting it below because it’s free on the site, though the Dish appreciate a subscription and I’ve done that.
In the mid-2010s, a curious new vocabulary began to unspool itself in our media. A data site, storywrangling.org, which measures the frequency of words in news stories, revealed some remarkable shifts. Terms that had previously been almost entirely obscure suddenly became ubiquitous—and an analysis of the New York Times, using these tools, is a useful example. Looking at stories from 1970 to 2018, several terms came out of nowhere in the past few years to reach sudden new heights of repetition and frequency. Here’s a list of the most successful neologisms: non-binary, toxic masculinity, white supremacy, traumatizing, queer, transphobia, whiteness, mansplaining. And here are a few that were rising in frequency in the last decade but only took off in the last few years: triggering, hurtful, gender, stereotypes.

Saturday, 1 August 2020

University of Cambridge: Covid deaths v other causes


From the University of Cambridge Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication.
The Centre notes:
We note the massive increase in the numbers of Covid deaths for increasing age.
Compared with other causes over the whole year:
  • For each age-group under 20, fewer have died with Covid than on average die from flu each year. This means that for all ages above 20, more have died from Covid than would typically die from flu each year.
  • For those over 90, around the same number have died with Covid as died from flu in 2014-2015, the worst recent year.
  • For each age-group under 35, fewer have died with Covid than on average die from road accidents each year.
  • For each age-group under 50, fewer have died with Covid than on average die from accidents and injuries each year.
Yet we get people saying this, with heaps of Likes and Retweets::

It is in fact, exactly, “an old person’s disease” Two young people with Covid says no more than two young people getting dementia. It happens. Doesn’t mean the diseases are not old people’s diseases. And to bring “insensitive” into it? Steady on!
ADDED: From the spreadsheet above:
  • Deaths in over 65 = 89.3% of total
  • Under 25 = 0.1%
  • Under 45 = 1.1% 
This is very much “an old person’s disease”.  At least, in terms of deaths. The figures are very similar for Australia, US and China.

BBC iWorld Service on the Melbourne lockdown

Where many friends and rellies…

While in Hong Kong the new National Security Law is being implemented with a heavy hand. Public service announcement on radio tell us soothingly that it will affect only a “very small minority of people” which is in itself scary for those of us who recall this was the very wording used by Maoists in the cultural revolution.
Just in the last two days: disqualifying a dozen pan-Dems from the September LegCo election and today delaying the election and also seeking, under the NSL, five pro-democracy activists who are now overseas. They are called “troublemakers”, another creepy bit of Beijing-speak.
Carrie: enough already! (Though that should be addressed to Beijing, no doubt. In which case deaf ears is the phrase of the day).