Are Hong Kong’s typhoons becoming stronger? Expect longer, more unpredictable storms, Observatory chief says | South China Morning Post

LETTER TO THE EDITOR, SCMP:

ADDED: Published 11 August.

I refer to "Stronger typhoons to batter Hong Kong" on the front page of today's newspaper, which appears online with the far less alarmist headline "Are Hong Kong's typhoons becoming stronger? Expect longer, more unpredictable storms, Observatory chief says".

In either case, the Hong Kong Observatory's own data do not support the predictions of its chief. 

I have done the analysis of typhoon numbers in the 22 years of the 21st century, using the HK Observatory data, and found that for Hong Kong and the Western North Pacific, typhoons have slightly declined on a trend line and become slightly less severe. 

Therefore one must ask: on what basis does the HK Observatory director Chan Pak-wai make his predictions? Certainly not on HKO past data. Presumably it's based on modelling (often mocked as  "guess work"), in which case, what are the assumptions in the models? 

A 2001 academic article by CUHK reported on 1,000 years of typhoon data, from 1000 AD to 2000 for Southern China, gleaned from the Fang Zhi records, the "semi-official local gazettes". 

The article notes:

Remarkably, the two periods of most frequent typhoon strikes in Guangdong (AD 1660-1680, 1850-1880) coincide with two of the coldest and driest periods in northern and central China during the Little Ice Age.

Most of our region's typhoon activity, over millennia, has not correlated with the level of industrialisation and occurred when our local climate was cooler. It's interesting that China — perhaps unique in the world — can access climate data over such a long period. It brings perspective to the present narrative that all has gone to hell only since we humans industrialised and warmed the world. 

None of this is to deny that we ought to be making every effort to decarbonise. But we do need to be honest about the effects of climate change and not to exaggerate them at every turn. That only leads to panicked reactions, which I believe we are seeing in many countries in the west. By contrast, the administration of Xi Jinping has made it clear that China will pursue decarbonisation of the economy, but only after ensuring energy security. No "Net Zero" for China any time soon!

Pf, etc...