Black Swans: very unlikely events that may have a great impact. Eg, a rogue asteroid hitting the earth; or a pandemic.
Grey Rhino: nice neologism, based on the Black Swan = Very likely events, that also will have a great impact. And therefore more important than Black Swans.
And for China, that’s the Demography, Debt and Decoupling trap. The three Grey Rhinos. Debt is something that has been on the worry list for decades. I guess we don’t hear more about it, or more about actual debt-fuelled disasters that have already happened, because China keeps it all under wraps. Censorship, don’t you know. The Demography one has hit the news recently. The drop in new births is precipitous. Decoupling, of course, started with Trump, continued with Biden and has been worsened by Xi Jinping’s actions. And Covid.
