A few random thoughts, since here in Hong Kong we’re right next to Taiwan, and worst-case scenario, it’s the flash point of a US-China war. An actual real war between two nuclear superpowers:
1. We shouldn’t do Foreign Policy by Vox Pop. Just as we shouldn’t do Public Health Policy by Vox Pop. Consent is manufactured. China’s 71% who want to invade Taiwan have been groomed to think that, by a government with “sophisticated means to change public perception”. (Just as we in the west have been groomed in most of our cherished beliefs). Vanishingly few of these 71% would have looked at the geopolitics closely and made up their own minds that “attack Taiwan!” is the way to go.
2. Xi Jinping has pushed “reunification” since he came to power in 2012. He wants to go down in history as the man who “finally united China”. Even though Taiwan has never been a part of the PRC. Which is why I put “reunification” in quotes. It has been self-run for virtually all its history. And its people don’t want to be part of the PRC. Doesn’t the will of the people count?
3. America has reacted too forcefully to the Xi push; that has not been helpful. “Strategic ambiguity” has worked well for 70+ years. Kept the peace. Now, making the US position “clearer” — as the Biden administration has done — makes conflict and war more likely, not less.
4. Australia should not go along with the US line on this. We don’t have to. We should keep pushing/maintaining “strategic ambiguity”.
5. Strategic Ambiguity worked well and continues to work well for the Korean Peninsula. It’s worked well for Taiwan. It worked well for us here in Hong Kong until 2019, when some hotheads got it into their minds that the way forward was to push for independence. Wrong.
6. The most correct of the Vox Pop above are the 22% who think China and Taiwan should just keep on keeping on, each with its own system, and not going to war over them. Spot on! Nothing is perfect. This status quo is far better than a war with China. For everyone. For everyone. Far, far better. For everyone.
