These Interesting Times: "Three futures for Iran" | Bernard Haykel & Mishal Husain

Sunday, 8 March 2026

"Three futures for Iran" | Bernard Haykel & Mishal Husain

Bernard Haykel speaks to Mishal Husain ex of the BBC, now with her own podcast on Bloomberg television.

Like I said in my first post on this latest mid-east war ("Khamenei is dead. Yay!"), I'm going to post non-Mainstream Media takes, because if you want the take from the Left, you only have to go the MSM itself: the BBCs, the CNNs, the MSNBCs, the New York Times and WaPo's.

But here I am posting something from Mishal Husain, on her Bloomberg TV podcast, mainly because it's been sent to me by a number of left-leaning folks, in one case being labelled "the best so far".

To which I'd ask, "compared to what?" Have these folks watched any of the dozens of non-MSM takes out there? Or even just the ones I've posted on this blog, since the beginning of the war? (see links at the bottom).

Professor Bernard Haykel comes across as a decent and knowledgeable man. I defer to him on his expertise on the Middle East.

Here I'll just quibble with a few points:

1. The framing as Iranian "Retaliation":

Note that right at the outset Mishal Husain talks of an Iranian "retaliation", as if the Israeli and US action was a first strike. But this is patently not the case. I clearly remember when the first Ayatollah, Khomeini, came to power in 1979, and his henchmen took dozens of US diplomats from the US embassy hostage. They remained hostage for 444 days.

The Iranian parliament chants "Death to America; Death to Israel" at the beginning of every session.

For 47 years, Iran has been attacking Israel and the United States.

Let me rely on Gemini AI here to summarise:

Major Historical Attacks by Iran (1979–2000)

Iran Hostage Crisis (1979–1981): Iranian students seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, holding 52 Americans hostage for 444 days.
Beirut Embassy Bombing (1983): An Iran-backed suicide bomber killed 17 Americans at the U.S. Embassy in Beirut.
Beirut Marine Barracks Bombing (1983): Hezbollah, supported by Iran, killed 241 U.S. military personnel in a truck bombing, the highest single-day death toll for the U.S. Armed Forces since the Vietnam War.
Kidnapping/Murder of William Buckley (1984): Iran-backed terrorists kidnapped and later killed the CIA station chief in Beirut.
Khobar Towers Bombing (1996): Iran-backed Hezbollah Al-Hijaz killed 19 U.S. Airmen in Saudi Arabia.

Attacks by Iran in Iraq and Afghanistan (2001–2020)

Iraq War Casualties (2003–2011): The U.S. Department of Defense assessed that Iran was responsible for the deaths of at least 608 American troop deaths in Iraq, representing 17% of all U.S. service personnel deaths in that period. These casualties were largely caused by EFPs (explosively formed penetrators) supplied by Iran.
Karbala Provincial Headquarters Raid (2007): IRGC Quds Force operatives were implicated in a raid that killed five U.S. soldiers.
Afghanistan Attacks (2001–2020): Iran provided weapons and funding to Taliban factions, contributing to the deaths or injuries of over 30 U.S. personnel.
Al-Asad Air Base Attack (2020): Following the killing of Qasem Soleimani, Iran launched ballistic missiles at the U.S. base in Iraq, causing traumatic brain injuries to over 100 U.S. service member

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The above doesn't cover what Keir Starmer of the UK admitted recently: that they had -- "luckily" -- foiled at least 20 Iranian terror attacks in the UK, in just the laset year. The same in the US. As well as a number of assassination attempts on the US president.

Then there's Israel, which has been surrounded by a "Ring of Fire" of Iranian proxies, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen. They have carried out regular attacks on Israel, killing many, and vowed to continue doing so.

The would-be genocidal Hamas attack on 7 October 2023 was only the latest outrage.

So, spare me the "retaliation" framing, Mishal and Bernard!

This -- the current war -- is US and Israel retaliation for half a century of attacks.

Arguably one that should have been done much earlier.

2. Iranian people's reactions:

There is nothing mentioned about the diaspora Iranians celebrations, the celebrations of Iranians within Iran, at the killing of Khamenei, and 48 of his top henchmen. Nothing. The video shows only -- and in many places -- mourners of the regime, black-burka clad professional cryers. But not the women happily ripping off their hijabs. The women, by the way, that no liberal western woman has had the guts, or honesty, to speak up for.

Even Haykel mentions that the regime is supported by "perhaps 20%" of the people. Others who know something of Iran and the region, like Younes Sadaghiani, say that it's only 10%. Let's say then it's 10% to 20% who support the regime. That leaves 80 to 90% who do not support the regime.

Neither Haykel nor Husain think it worth talking about that?

3. Murder of innocent Iranian civilians:

Not a mention, not a squeak, not a passing reference to the regime of "religions lunatics" machine-gunning down their own civlians because they had the temerity to demonstrate against the Mullahs. This happened just the other day. With numbers up to 40,000 being killed. Murdered. Nothing of that, Mishal? Not words for them, Bernard?

4. "Chaos" as the most likely outcome?

Perhaps. But even Haykel admits that other outcomes are possible, in each case, very much preferable to what we have now. Elsewhere I have posted videos of experts on Iran who list up to six possible outcomes (see below). It's not necessary to know which specific outcome is most likely to happen, if you believe, as I do - as many Iranians do -- that any of them is better than what we have now.

5. Two state solution: ??

I was shocked when Haykel mentioned, towards the end, this as being some kind of solution to regional strife. That's truly bizarre. When we know that Hamas, the dominant force in both Gaza and, de facto, in Judea and Samaria, state, repeatedly and explicitly that they do not want a state, that that is NOT their aim, and that their aim is the extirpation of the state of Israel and the extermination of all Jews in the world. We have to internalise this, professor! Sad and uncomfortable as it is.

That's it for now.

I was interested to watch this video above and it was far from the worst analysis that I've seen. But "the best"?

In the meantime, I invite those that find "the best" analysis in a video like the one above, to read and watch a bit more widely.

A start is my posts on this blog: