We have a vast variety of views on Operation Epic Fury — the U.S. Israel war in Iran — from CNN sound bites to multi-hour podcasts. From the loony Left to the loopy Right.
Michael Doran and Gadi Taub I’d put in the knowledgable centre-right, clear eyed, clearly spoken.
At the beginning of the war I posted Michael and Gadi’s 6 possible scenarios.
What we’re trending to now appears to be a “stalemate” outcome. A combination of options 1, “No Real Change, and 2, “False Regime Change”. Which might or could being peace of sorts, but with a sellable “win” to the IRGC. And, more consequentially, more leverage to China, perhaps even China. Clearing and safekeeping the Straits of Hormuz would seem to be a minimum requirement at this stage.
We — at least I — must hope that that is NOT the outcome. Otherwise it’s all been for nothing. Save the deaths of tens of thousands of protesters — at the hands of their own government — and the deaths of dozens I’d snakes, the mullahs, ayatollahs and IRGC leaders.
“We’ll see”.
