Monday 15 February 2021

Who trusts WHO?

There are some who do trust the WHO ("Let’s follow the science") and some who don't trust the WHO ("They’re puppets of China"). 

For myself: colour me skeptical. 

The WHO-led delegation went to China to investigate the origin of SARS-CoV-2.

What did they find? Nothing new, really. Most likely came from an animal; but we don't know which one. "Extremely unlikely" it was a laboratory leak (but not "dismissed"); maybe came from somewhere else (US, anyone?). But overall "we have more work to do".

You don't say. 

Many people -- and not just Trump cultists -- were wondering what they'd say about the hypothesis that the virus escaped from a lab in Wuhan. Important to note here that this hypothesis is not that it was manufactured, genetically manipulated in the lab. Rather, it's that it was being studied in the lab, and escaped somehow, perhaps by a staff member becoming infected. Here's some knowledgeable thoughts on it from Bret and Heather.

What the WHO had to say about his hypothesis is that it was "extremely unlikely". Remember, though, that on 14 January 2020, the WHO said, in a tweet, that "there is no evidence the virus can be transmitted between humans". For which give a grade of F. 

My own take on this is not that it is a "theory", or still less that it is a "conspiracy theory". But that it is a hypothesis, and has not been falsified. China denying the lab leak is not debunking it (as many seem to have been convinced by). Failure to prove it is not to disprove it. 

I wondered, when the WHO team announced its report of the investigation, what access had they been given to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the lab at the centre of the hypothesis. Had they been given access to the records? Had they been given access to the samples? Had they been given access to...well... anything in the lab? 

My own thinking being: no, it's highly unlikely that they've been given that access. Why? Because of China's record in covering up data and whistleblowers at the outset of the outbreak, and its increasing muzzling of anything outside the Beijing narrative, under the cruel despotism of Emperor Winnie-the-Pooh Xi. 

The team itself confirmed my suspicion: they said "we were not equipped to make a forensic investigation into the Wuhan lab". That's a kind of mind-blowing admission. Not carried anywhere, of course; you had to search for it. Imagine: one of the main possible sources of the virus -- a leak from a lab -- and the team sent in to look for the source is not equipped to look at the main possible source.

That the Wuhan Lab leak is not crazy conspiracy is underlined by Dr Shi Zhengli, director of the Centre of Emerging Infectious Diseases at the WIV, who is said to have rushed back to Wuhan on hearing of the new coronavirus, worried that it may have come from a leak by her lab. If such a thing were impossible -- as those saying this is just a conspiracy theory suggest -- then why was Dr Shi so worried?

In any case, since that time, increasing numbers of experts have become convinced that the Lab Leak Hypothesis is at least a possibility. 

Even the WHO admits as much, as its most recent announcement, yesterday, is to confirm that they have not ruled out any possibility. 

Also: see CNN quiz Peter Daszak of the WHO and the Cold-Chain theory. And the DarkHorse take on it. (“The Cold-chain hypothesis” is that the virus was brought to Wuhan via frozen foods). Daszak has interests in “gain-of-function” research, the type of research that is suspected in the lab leak hypothesis. He has an interest to downplay the lab leak hypothesis; in short, conflict of interest. Thus, the sum of what has happened is that the WHO asked the Chinese if there had been a leak from the WIV, China said "no" and that was taken as evidence of the fact that it hadn't happened. And in turn the Chinese have put forward an idea that the virus was spread via cold-chain transmission, for which there is no evidence anywhere else in the world, and indeed even in China itself. And this hypothesis is being touted by Daszak. So, sure, let's keep it on the list of possibilities. But also the lab-leak hypothesis. More here.