Thursday 30 June 2022

If only: “Return2logicalreasoning”

“Harry” in South China Morning Post 

Quite. 

Though no real signs that we're headed to a more logical Covid policy, here in Hong Kong.

We started the latest round of Covid restriction on 6 January. We hit peak fifth wave on 6 March. Two months later. For a virus with an incubation time of three days. Why, it’s almost as if the restrictions didn’t work! The riposte for lockdown hawks: “well, it would have been worse if we hadn’t had the restrictions”. Which is an unfalsifiable claim. In any case, could it be true …when we hit the highest number of cases per million, in the world? How much higher could we have for than that?

Moreover: the wave of cases in March showed exactly zero reaction to the severe lockdowns. Zero. There was no blip down, which you would expect if the measures had any effect.

ADDED: We should scrap quarantine and mask mandates