Thursday 4 April 2024

Tesla: “the last great buying opportunity”?

Click above for the video 
The Bears on TSLA are out, selling into the expected dip in Q1 deliveries. But the Bulls are out there too. And we need to remember the obvious: BUY low; SELL high. Not the other way around! 

Warren Buffet: “Be greedy when others are fearful; be fearful when others are greedy”. 

I do know that it’s hard to buy when a stock seems unloved. But there are reasons for the current dip, as Steve Ryan explains in the above analysis. 

Steve mentions investor Larry Goldberg is in the video. He’s another TSLA bull. Who says on X, here, that Emmet Peppers TSLA buy calls have been legendary, quoting him: 
I can't help but wonder if today and coming days drop in $TSLA might be the last great buying oppty I can't imagine Q2 delivery numbers not being way better I can't imagine FSD take rate not inching up already I can't imagine FSD not getting better still from here I can't imagine Cybertruck production ramp not improving further from here

Tesla sales did dip in Q1, but not as much as the main China rival BYD. So Tesla has regained the title of selling the most EV’s in a Quarter:


The trend of EV sales is solidly up, despite the many news reports saying the “trend is down”. When in doubt, Zoom out. Over the four years to date, the sale of EVs by Tesla has increased 151% Compound Annual Growth Rate. That’s the trend. 

I count five main reasons to own Tesla in the long term:
  1. The Car. Still the GOAT out there, hugely popular. People have said that it’s not a good sign that they have to cut prices. But that’s been the strategy of Elon Musk all along, as I read in the authorised biography by Walter Isaacson.  Simple version: make a very expensive car to begin with, to sell to the early adopters, who will pay a premium, so you can make money. That’s the Model S. Then develop a mass market car on that back of that, so you sell more cars to more people. That’s exactly what’s happening with the Model 3 and Model Y. These are now the best-selling cars in the world. And Tesla is developing cutting edge manufacturing technology to produce them even cheaper. 
  2. The Fully Self Driving (FSD) technology. This I covered in the previous video. As it’s rolled out and gets better by the day, it will eventually be licensed to other EV manufacturers, with huge revenue potential. 
  3. Batteries: Tesla also produces batteries and this is becoming an increasingly important contributor to profits. 
  4. Supercharging Stations: other EV manufacturers in the U.S. have decided to go with Tesla Superchargers. Another source of revenue. 
  5. Robots: the Optimus. This will be rolled out in Tesla factories first. Then sold or leased to other manufacturers. 
These are what make TSLA a tech stock, not a car company. And a big BUY.