Monday 8 March 2021

The ‘what if?’ moments on path to where Hong Kong is today


The dream of Hong Kong emerging as a free and democratic part of China under the “one country, two systems” concept has been shattered. The city is losing its dynamism. Where did it all go wrong?

Who you blame, no doubt, depends on which political camp you support. Is it the protesters for their violence and calls for Hong Kong independence? The democrats for supporting them? The pro-establishment camp for telling Beijing what it wanted to hear rather than seeking constructive solutions for Hong Kong? Beijing for tightening its grip on the city? Or Hong Kong officials for pandering to vested interests and failing to tackle deep-rooted problems? You can take your pick. Link

This reminds me of the talk on the Dark Horse podcast with Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying (“rhymes with flying”) in which they talk of first-person, second-person and third-person epistemology. Short version: third-person epistemology is that of the famous philosophers, from Plato to Confucius. Second person epistemology is understanding what you — the other person — thinks. First-person epistemology is knowing yourself, your “lived experience”. Which, by the way, is the only epistemology that’s recognised by the woke brigade: my lived experience trumps your facts.

There’s no third-person epistemology re the above “take your pick”. No famous yet neutral observer to dish out wisdom. Least of all our esteemed Chief Secretary, Matthew Cheung, who opined yesterday about patriotism with words sounding just like a communist party apparatchik. 

Second-person epistemology I have to remind myself to look at, so that my own confirmation bias — which we all suffer — is minimised. So, yes, many will blame Beijing and our own local government, led by the hapless Carrie Lam, who ushered in the demos of 2019. And sure, Beijing have been bullies, ugly, open, nasty, venal.  As to whether they are responsible, though, is less clear. How could a Leninist entity stand idly by as teenagers trashed their property and threatened to seced? 

And so for the first-person epistemology, that’s me, and what I think about it is that the calls for Hong Kong independence were what did it for Beijing. They fear independence like the littlies fear Voldemort. Independence leads to chaos, and chaos is the biggest of big no-nos for Beijing. It was predictable that they would react to the violent demos—  and was predicted, by many including me. Before that, despite the hysteria about “Beijing interference” they’d largely kept hands off. For twenty plus years. It was the demos wot dun it…