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What do I think of their take? I don’t know. How can I? I’m not a member of the Chinese Politburo. Then again, neither are they. It’s all guess work.
Still, it makes some sense. That China would not want an outright sea assault. Like on D-day. Which the invaders happened to win, but could easily have lost.
The question then is: if China goes for the softer approach, like, to Taiwan: “joining with us is better for you”, what’s in it for Taiwan? A a genuine question. Especially if they look at the ruins of the “One China Two Systems”. I mean, can we really say that Hong Kong is better, 27 years after we “reunited with the motherland”? 回归祖国. Hui Gui Zuguo.
In sum, it’s been: Better than the pessimists feared. Worse than the optimists hoped.
We’re still pretty free. In many ways more than some other democracies (eg, on the Woke issues, we have more freedom to speak without fear of “cancellation”). But also less free than we used to be, in terms of freedom of speech and assembly. Many will cheer than. I don’t. But then I’m just me. And I’m still blogging this.