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| Click to enlarge. From here Australia's health systems, as in the US, are run by the States Each state is in charge of Covid responses. There has been a lot of aggro and bitterness between them. |
Then, a bit later, an expert told us that we humans have wiped out only one virus in all our history: Smallpox. I've checked this and it turns out it's true! All the others that we don't think about any more, like polio, measles, ebola, are still with us; they're endemic not pandemic. And we live with these viruses.
Then Australia snuck in with a de facto Zero Covid Policy (ZCP) by shutting its international borders, early on. They never said that it was ZCP, iirc, but that's what it was. Still, it did seem to have nipped the virus in the corona, as it were. We all recall that Australian Open in 2020, with crowds in the stands -- no masks! -- and Aussies going about their business, carefree! Bronzed! Sun-loving! They couldn't travel anywhere outside Oz, of course, but then whydy'a need to leave god'zone? An enforced stay at home, in paradise. While the rest of the world see-sawed between lockdowns and easings.
Hong Kong did the same -- the ZCP -- but so sneakily that I didn't even notice. The government never said "we're going ZCP", but sure enough that's what it is and remains so. Ditto our dear motherland, China.
I struggled to understand the exit strategy for ZCP. When you do open up how can you keep the virus out? Especially the Delta variant?
Then, I realised that that ZCP folks are working on what we might call the "Vaccine saviour theory". Cometh the vaccine, commeth the saviour. When we reached 80% fully vaccinated (a figure we settled on only after a considerable amount of waffling between 60 and 90%), you can -- slowly, carefully, prudently! -- open up again.
Fair enough, I thought; at least it's a plan. So aim for 80%.
Now, it turns out that's not enough either.
This note (at left) is only some Canberra bike riders -- mainly public servants and academics -- sharing their thoughts. But this is widely shared as far as I gather in Australian media and influencers -- the call for both a "much higher vax rate" than 80%, and "continuation of some restrictions like mask wearing and ban on mass events". When NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian's (a Liberal) called for opening up with other states on reaching 80% vax-rate, Tony Walker, a senior and respected journo, said she was "Proposing COVID Roulette". Wow! The goal posts are being dug up, ready to shift them even further up the field, as we speak. Ms Berejiklian said the state had a surge capacity of up to 2000 ventilators and 1550 fully staffed ICU beds. [Ref]
But if the Forever Lockdown folks say that even with 80% vaxxed, we, Australia, cannot open up, then we must ask: "If not then; when?". If 80% vaccinated doesn't do it, what will? The answer, whatever it is, cannot be trusted, given the constant shifting of these goal posts. Remember "flatten the curve"? Oh naive us!
A couple of points on the map above:
- The states doing best are Liberal (ie conservative) states, whereas they are constantly held out to be the villains, esp by folks in the Labor-run states.
- But, whatever, the vaccination rates are all pretty similar and are all very low.
- The 80% goal: only Malta has managed to get above 80%. For other countries to get there will be very tough, given that it's not the recommendation to vaccinate the under-12s. (eg, the UK by the expert group on vaccines). AFAIK only Cuba is vaccinating <12yo.
