Sunday, 25 November 2018

“A deal on tariffs won’t end the US-China economic Cold War” | SCMP [last week]

Who will blink at Buenos Aires?  Anyone? Noone? 
I like Tom Holland. He's a good analyst with long history in this part of the world. 
In today's print edition article "This could go either way. Either way, it's bad" (not yet online) he ends up with this scary prediction:
"... it matters little whether Trump and Xi manage to strike a deal in trade tariffs in Buenos Aires next week. The US and China are heading for an epochal economic Cold War that will sour international relations for a generation to come." [my emphasis]
And in the article headlined above and linked here, from last week:
And while it is debatable whether globalisation was ever quite the force in averting international conflict that its advocates claimed, it is a safe bet that de-globalisation is never exactly going to promote the cause of peace and harmony between nations. Protectionism on national security grounds is a threat to everyone's security. 
I'm hoping Tom's got this wrong. But if not, then in my old-old age I'm going to be asking "was it worth it?". 
The whole Trump taking on China because "protectionism is good" and "winning a trade war is easy" thing .... was it worth it?
As Trump says "we'll see". So far, not so good...